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AUD/USD Range Resistance at Risk on Upbeat Australia Employment

AUD/USD Range Resistance at Risk on Upbeat Australia Employment

David Song, Shuyang Ren,

- Australia Employment Expected to Increase for Second-Consecutive Month.

- Jobless Rate to Hold Steady at Annualized 6.3% for Second-Month.

For more updates, sign up for David's e-mail distribution list.

Trading the News: Australia Employment Change

Another 15.0K advance in Australia Employment may encourage a more meaningful rebound in AUD/USD as market participants scale back bets for a rate cut at the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) May 5 interest rate decision.

What’s Expected:

AUD/USD Employment

Click Here for the DailyFX Calendar

Why Is This Event Important:

Positive developments coming out of the $1T economy may boost the appeal of the higher-yielding currency as it limits the RBA’s scope to further reduce the cash rate, and the aussie-dollar may continue to face range-bound prices over the near-term as central bank Governor Glenn Stevens refrains from toughening the verbal intervention on the local currency.

Expectations: Bullish Argument/Scenario

Release

Expected

Actual

NAB Business Confidence (MAR)

--

3

Retail Sales (MoM) (FEB)

0.4%

0.7%

Building Approvals (YoY) (FEB)

10.7%

14.3%

The rebound in business confidence along with the expansion in private-sector consumption may push Australian firms to ramp up their labor force, and a marked uptick in job growth may generate fresh weekly highs in AUD/USD as it dampens bets for additional monetary support.

Risk: Bearish Argument/Scenario

Release

Expected

Actual

Trade Balance (FEB)

-1300M

-1256M

AiG Performance of Manufacturing Index (MAR)

--

46.3

Gross Domestic Product s.a. (QoQ) (4Q)

0.6%

0.5%

However, the weakening terms of trade paired with the ongoing contraction in business outputs may drag on hiring, and a dismal employment report may heighten the bearish sentiment surrounding the Australian dollar as the RBA keeps the door open to further embark on its easing cycle.

Join DailyFX on Demand for Real-Time SSI Updates!

How To Trade This Event Risk(Video)

Bullish AUD Trade: Australia Adds 15.0K or Greater Jobs in March

  • Need green, five-minute candle following the report for a potential long AUD/USD trade.
  • If market reaction favors a long aussie trade, buy AUD/USD with two separate position.
  • Set stop at the near-by swing low/reasonable distance from entry; look for at least 1:1 risk-to-reward.
  • Move stop to breakeven on remaining position once initial target is met, set reasonable limit.

Bearish AUD Trade: Employment Report Disappoints

  • Need red, five-minute candle to consider a short AUD/USD position.
  • Carry out the same setup as the bullish aussie trade, just in the opposite direction.

Read More:

Price & Time: Indices Again Probing Key Resistance

Trade Setups in EUR-crosses Ahead of ECB Meeting

Potential Price Targets For The Release

AUD/USD Daily Chart

AUD/USD Daily Chart

Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

  • Ongoing string of closes above interim support may generate a larger rebound, especially as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) retains the bullish momentum carried over from earlier this year.
  • Even though the DailyFX Speculative Sentiment Index (SSI) shows the retail FX crowd remains net-long AUD/USD, the ratio continues to narrow despite a 3.8% rise in open interest as it currently sits at +1.05.
  • Interim Resistance: 0.7720 (161.8% expansion) to 0.7740 (78.6% expansion)
  • Interim Support: 0.7570 (50% expansion) to 0.7590 (100% expansion)

Impact that Australia Employment Change has had on AUD during the last release

Period

Data Released

Estimate

Actual

Pips Change

(1 Hour post event )

Pips Change

(End of Day post event)

FEB 2015

03/12/2015 00:30 GMT

15.0K

15.6K

-4

+41

February 2015Australia Employment Change

AUD/USD Chart

The Australian economy added 15.6K jobs in February following a revised14.6K contract the month prior. At the same time, the unemployment rate unexpectedly narrowed to 6.3% from 6.4% in January, while the participation rate slipped to 64.6% from a revised 64.7% as discouraged workers left the labor force. Despite the rebound in job growth, the narrowing labor pool may continue to point to below-trend growth as the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) retains a cautious outlook for the region. The AUD/USD showed a lackluster reaction to the mixed data print, with the pair consolidating throughout the Asia-Pacific trade to end the session at 0.7642.

--- Written by David Song, Currency Analyst and Shuyang Ren

To contact David, e-mail dsong@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong.

To be added to David's e-mail distribution list, please follow this link.

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