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AUD/USD Range Resistance at Risk on Upbeat Australia Employment

AUD/USD Range Resistance at Risk on Upbeat Australia Employment

2015-04-15 19:55:00
David Song, Shuyang Ren,
Share:

- Australia Employment Expected to Increase for Second-Consecutive Month.

- Jobless Rate to Hold Steady at Annualized 6.3% for Second-Month.

For more updates, sign up for David's e-mail distribution list.

Trading the News: Australia Employment Change

Another 15.0K advance in Australia Employment may encourage a more meaningful rebound in AUD/USD as market participants scale back bets for a rate cut at the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) May 5 interest rate decision.

What’s Expected:

AUD/USD Employment

Click Here for the DailyFX Calendar

Why Is This Event Important:

Positive developments coming out of the $1T economy may boost the appeal of the higher-yielding currency as it limits the RBA’s scope to further reduce the cash rate, and the aussie-dollar may continue to face range-bound prices over the near-term as central bank Governor Glenn Stevens refrains from toughening the verbal intervention on the local currency.

Expectations: Bullish Argument/Scenario

Release

Expected

Actual

NAB Business Confidence (MAR)

--

3

Retail Sales (MoM) (FEB)

0.4%

0.7%

Building Approvals (YoY) (FEB)

10.7%

14.3%

The rebound in business confidence along with the expansion in private-sector consumption may push Australian firms to ramp up their labor force, and a marked uptick in job growth may generate fresh weekly highs in AUD/USD as it dampens bets for additional monetary support.

Risk: Bearish Argument/Scenario

Release

Expected

Actual

Trade Balance (FEB)

-1300M

-1256M

AiG Performance of Manufacturing Index (MAR)

--

46.3

Gross Domestic Product s.a. (QoQ) (4Q)

0.6%

0.5%

However, the weakening terms of trade paired with the ongoing contraction in business outputs may drag on hiring, and a dismal employment report may heighten the bearish sentiment surrounding the Australian dollar as the RBA keeps the door open to further embark on its easing cycle.

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How To Trade This Event Risk(Video)

Bullish AUD Trade: Australia Adds 15.0K or Greater Jobs in March

  • Need green, five-minute candle following the report for a potential long AUD/USD trade.
  • If market reaction favors a long aussie trade, buy AUD/USD with two separate position.
  • Set stop at the near-by swing low/reasonable distance from entry; look for at least 1:1 risk-to-reward.
  • Move stop to breakeven on remaining position once initial target is met, set reasonable limit.

Bearish AUD Trade: Employment Report Disappoints

  • Need red, five-minute candle to consider a short AUD/USD position.
  • Carry out the same setup as the bullish aussie trade, just in the opposite direction.

Read More:

Price & Time: Indices Again Probing Key Resistance

Trade Setups in EUR-crosses Ahead of ECB Meeting

Potential Price Targets For The Release

AUD/USD Daily Chart

AUD/USD Daily Chart

Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

  • Ongoing string of closes above interim support may generate a larger rebound, especially as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) retains the bullish momentum carried over from earlier this year.
  • Even though the DailyFX Speculative Sentiment Index (SSI) shows the retail FX crowd remains net-long AUD/USD, the ratio continues to narrow despite a 3.8% rise in open interest as it currently sits at +1.05.
  • Interim Resistance: 0.7720 (161.8% expansion) to 0.7740 (78.6% expansion)
  • Interim Support: 0.7570 (50% expansion) to 0.7590 (100% expansion)

Impact that Australia Employment Change has had on AUD during the last release

Period

Data Released

Estimate

Actual

Pips Change

(1 Hour post event )

Pips Change

(End of Day post event)

FEB 2015

03/12/2015 00:30 GMT

15.0K

15.6K

-4

+41

February 2015Australia Employment Change

AUD/USD Chart

The Australian economy added 15.6K jobs in February following a revised14.6K contract the month prior. At the same time, the unemployment rate unexpectedly narrowed to 6.3% from 6.4% in January, while the participation rate slipped to 64.6% from a revised 64.7% as discouraged workers left the labor force. Despite the rebound in job growth, the narrowing labor pool may continue to point to below-trend growth as the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) retains a cautious outlook for the region. The AUD/USD showed a lackluster reaction to the mixed data print, with the pair consolidating throughout the Asia-Pacific trade to end the session at 0.7642.

--- Written by David Song, Currency Analyst and Shuyang Ren

To contact David, e-mail dsong@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong.

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