News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site. See our updated Privacy Policy here.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
EUR/USD
Bearish
Oil - US Crude
Bullish
Wall Street
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Gold
Bearish
GBP/USD
Bearish
USD/JPY
Mixed
More View more
Real Time News
  • Markets Week Ahead: Gold, Dow, Pound-Dollar, BoE Rate Decision, Fed Risk, PMIs Check out my recap of last week and preview of upcoming event risk, plus all the latest forecasts from the @DailyFX team below. Link to Analysis - https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/fundamental/forecast/weekly/title/2021/06/20/Markets-Week-Ahead-Gold-Dow-Pound-Dollar-BoE-Rate-Decision-Fed-Risk-PMIs.html $GLD $DJI $GBPUSD #Trading
  • Traders focus a lot of their energy on spotting the perfect time to enter a trade. While this is important, it is ultimately where traders choose to exit trades that will determine success. Learn about the three types of trading exit strategies here: https://t.co/muYkTNXH7s https://t.co/hbZPJmoOHe
  • Trading bias allows traders to make informative decisions when dealing in the market. This relates to both novice and experienced traders alike. Start learning how you may be able to make more informed decisions here: https://t.co/rz7fqhRoMG https://t.co/C0i7u1dDKL
  • What suits your style of trading stocks or commodities? Find out what are the differences in these two markets here: https://t.co/BnA07cMV0s https://t.co/Q69HKBXeKH
  • (Weekly Technical Outlook) US Dollar Outlook, Key Trend Reversals Playing Out? USD/CAD, AUD/USD, EUR/USD, GBP/USD #USD $USDCAD $AUDUSD $EURUSD $GBPUSD https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/technical/article/special_report/2021/06/20/US-Dollar-Outlook-Key-Trend-Reversals-Playing-Out-USDCAD-AUDUSD-EURUSD-GBPUSD.html?CHID=9&QPID=917702&utm_source=Twitter&utm_medium=Dubrovsky&utm_campaign=twr https://t.co/7C56bfljV4
  • Forex quotes reflect the price of different currencies at any point in time. Since a trader’s profit or loss is determined by movements in price, it is essential to develop a sound understanding of how to read currency pairs. Learn how to read quotes here: https://t.co/CNtqrKWDBY https://t.co/Gea69MhO04
  • The non-farm payroll (NFP) figure is a key economic indicator for the United States economy. It is also referred to as the monthly market mover. Find out why it has been given this nickname here: https://t.co/yOUVEEqhc5 https://t.co/oPaSJLahbE
  • It’s important for traders to be familiar with FX spreads as they are the primary cost of trading currencies. Understand a pair's spread here: https://t.co/zEEUHZBx7g https://t.co/bFOK9RRXtv
  • Dealing with the fear of missing out – or FOMO – is a highly valuable skill for traders. Not only can FOMO have a negative emotional impact, it can cloud judgment and overshadow logic. Learn how you can control FOMO in your trading here: https://t.co/lgDf5cVYOn https://t.co/LIumDnHrTo
  • Rollover is the interest paid or earned for holding a currency spot position overnight. Learn how to earn rollover interest on your open positions here: https://t.co/SRsG8CxjEn https://t.co/ITdDUGoAL0
EUR/USD Hangs Onto Bearish Momentum Ahead of Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP)

EUR/USD Hangs Onto Bearish Momentum Ahead of Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP)

David Song, Shuyang Ren,

- U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) to Expand 200+K for Thirteen-Consecutive Months.

- Unemployment Rate, Average Hourly Earnings Projected to Hold Steady in March.

For more updates, sign up for David's e-mail distribution list.

Trading the News: U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls

Another 245K rise in U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) may highlight an improved outlook for the world’s largest economy, but weak wage growth figures may undermine bets for a mid-2015 Fed rate hike as the central bank struggles to achieve its 2% target for inflation.

What’s Expected:

EUR/USD NFP

Click Here for the DailyFX Calendar

Why Is This Event Important:

Little evidence of stronger household earnings may spur a growing dissent within the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) and the central bank may show a greater willingness to further delay the normalization cycle in an effort to encourage a stronger recovery.

Expectations: Bullish Argument/Scenario

Release

Expected

Actual

Pending Home Sales (MoM) (FEB)

0.3%

3.1%

New Home Sales (MoM) (FEB)

-3.5%

7.8%

Building Permits (MoM) (FEB)

0.5%

3.0%

The ongoing improvement in the housing market along with the pickup in building activity may generate a larger-than-expected expansion in U.S. employment, and a positive development may bolster the bullish outlook for the greenback as the Fed remains well on course to remove the zero-interest rate policy (ZIRP).

Risk: Bearish Argument/Scenario

Release

Expected

Actual

ISM Manufacturing (MAR)

52.5

51.5

Industrial Production (MoM) (FEB)

0.2%

0.1%

Advance Retail Sales (MoM) (FEB)

0.3%

-0.6%

Nevertheless, waning business outputs paired with the slowdown in household spending may drag on hiring, and a dismal NFP report may dampen the bullish sentiment surrounding the greenback as it raises the Fed’s scope to retain the highly accommodative policy stance beyond mid-2015.

How To Trade This Event Risk(Video)

Join DailyFX on Demand for Full Coverage of U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls

Bullish USD Trade: Employment/Wage Growth Beats Market Expectations

  • Need red, five-minute candle following the NFP print to consider a short trade on EUR/USD
  • If market reaction favors a bullish dollar trade, sell EUR/USD with two separate position
  • Set stop at the near-by swing high/reasonable distance from entry; look for at least 1:1 risk-to-reward
  • Move stop to entry on remaining position once initial target is hit; set reasonable limit

Bearish USD Trade: U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) Report Disappoints

  • Need green, five-minute candle to favor a long EUR/USD trade
  • Implement same setup as the bullish dollar trade, just in reverse

Potential Price Targets For The Release

EUR/USD Daily Chart

EUR/USD Daily Chart

Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

  • Watching the long-term bearish trendline on RSI, but need a break/close below the 1.0700 handle to provide confirmation/conviction for a further decline in EUR/USD.
  • Interim Resistance: 1.0970 (38.2% expansion) to 1.0990 (50% retracement)
  • Interim Support: 1.0700 pivot to 1.0710 (23.6% retracement)

Read More:

USDCAD Reversal Scalps Pending Below 1.2700 Resistance Ahead of NFPs

AUD/USD Retail FX Remain Net-Long; 0.7500 in Focus Ahead of NFP, RBA

Impact that the U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls report has had on EUR/USD during the previous month

Period

Data Released

Estimate

Actual

Pips Change

(1 Hour post event )

Pips Change

(End of Day post event)

FEB 2015

03/06/2015 13:30 GMT

235K

295K

-89

-124

February 2015 U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls

EUR/USD Chart

U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) continued to beat market expectations in February as the economy added another 295K jobs following the revised 237K expansion the month prior. The unemployment rate fell to an annualized 5.5% from 5.7% following a drop in participation rate, while Average Hourly Earnings unexpectedly slowed to an annualized 2.0% from 2.2% during the same period. The pickup in wage growth may put increased pressure on the Fed to deliver a mid-2015 rate hike, but the sluggish outlook for wage growth may become a growing concern for the central bank as it struggles to achieve the 2% target for inflation. Nevertheless, the better-than-expected NFP print propped up the greenback, with EUR/USD slipping below the 1.0900 handle to end the day at 1.0838.

--- Written by David Song, Currency Analyst and Shuyang Ren

To contact David, e-mail dsong@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong.

To be added to David's e-mail distribution list, please follow this link.

Trade Alongsidethe DailyFX Team on DailyFX on Demand

Looking to use the DailyFX Trade Signals LIVE? Check out Mirror Trader.

New to FX? Watch this Video

Join us to discuss the outlook for the major currencies on the DailyFXForums

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES