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NZD/USD Threatens Ahead of New Zealand 4Q GDP- 0.7600 on Radar

NZD/USD Threatens Ahead of New Zealand 4Q GDP- 0.7600 on Radar

David Song, Shuyang Ren,

- New Zealand 4Q GDP to Expand Annualized 3.4%- Fastest Pace of Growth Since 3Q 2007.

- Will a Slowdown in the Quarterly Growth Rate Drag on Interest Rate Expectations?

Trading the News: New Zealand Gross Domestic Product (GDP)

A pickup in New Zealand’s annualized growth rate may spark a near-term rebound in NZD/USD as it dampens bets of seeing the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) revert back to its easing cycle.

What’s Expected:

NZD/USD GDP

Click Here for the DailyFX Calendar

Why Is This Event Important:

Signs of a stronger economic recovery may encourage RBNZ Governor Graeme Wheeler to adopt a more hawkish tone for monetary policy, and the central bank may show a greater willingness to further normalize monetary policy over the medium-term as the region gets on a more sustainable path.

For LIVE SSI Updates Ahead of the GDP Print, Join DailyFX on Demand

Expectations: Bullish Argument/Scenario

Release

Expected

Actual

Business NZ Purchasing Manager Index- Manufacturing (FEB)

--

55.9

Retail Sales ex Inflation (QoQ) (4Q)

1.3%

1.7%

Employment Change (QoQ) (4Q)

0.8%

1.2%

The pickup in household spending along with the expansion in business outputs may generate a strong 4Q GDP print, and a positive development may heighten the appeal of the New Zealand dollar as Governor Wheeler largely endorses a wait-and-see approach for monetary policy.

Risk: Bearish Argument/Scenario

Release

Expected

Actual

Value of All Buildings s.a. (QoQ) (4Q)

1.0%

0.3%

Building Permits (MoM) (JAN)

--

-3.8%

ANZ Consumer Confidence (MoM) (FEB)

--

-3.8%

Nevertheless, waning confidence paired with efforts to cool the housing market may drag on the growth rate, and a dismal GDP figure may fuel speculation for lower borrowing-costs as the central bank keeps the door open to further support the New Zealand economy.

How To Trade This Event Risk(Video)

Bullish NZD Trade: Growth Rate Expands Annualized 3.4% or Greater

  • Need to see green, five-minute candle following the GDP report to consider a long trade on NZD/USD
  • If market reaction favors a long kiwi trade, buy NZD/USD with two separate position
  • Set stop at the near-by swing low/reasonable distance from entry; look for at least 1:1 risk-to-reward
  • Move stop to entry on remaining position once initial target is hit; set reasonable limit

Bearish NZD Trade: 4Q GDP Report Disappoints

  • Need red, five-minute candle to favor a short NZD/USD trade
  • Implement same setup as the bullish New Zealand dollar trade, just in reverse

Potential Price Targets For The Release

NZD/USD Daily Chart

NZD/USD Daily Chart

Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

  • Strong GDP print may undermine the bearish sentiment surrounding NZD/USD especially if the RSI breaks out of the downward momentum dating back to March 2014.
  • Interim Resistance: 0.7600 (38.2% expansion) to 0.7620 (50% expansion)
  • Interim Support: 0.7100 pivot to 0.7150 (78.6% expansion)

Read More:

GBPCAD at Support- Scalps Target 1.8785 Ahead of Key Data

EUR/USD Rebound Vulnerable to Hawkish FOMC Forward- Guidance

Impact that the New Zealand GDP report has had on NZD/USD during the last release

Period

Data Released

Estimate

Actual

Pips Change

(1 Hour post event )

Pips Change

(End of Day post event)

3Q

2014

12/17/2014 21:45 GMT

3.3%

3.2%

-18

+23

3Q 2014 New Zealand Gross Domestic Product (GDP)

NZD/USD Chart

The New Zealand economy unexpectedly increased 1.0% in the third quarter of 2014, while the growth rate climbed an annualized 3.2% during the three-months through June. Despite the strongest rate of growth in seven years, the weakening outlook for the global economy many encourage the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) to preserve its wait-and-see approach in 2015 especially as falling commodity prices drags on inflation. Failure to meet market expectations generated a limited market reaction in NZD/USD, but the New Zealand Dollar regained its footing during the day to end the session at 0.7731.

--- Written by David Song, Currency Analyst and Shuyang Ren

To contact David, e-mail dsong@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong.

To be added to David's e-mail distribution list, please follow this link.

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