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EUR/USD Oversold Ahead of NFP- 1.0970 Support Remains Vulnerable

EUR/USD Oversold Ahead of NFP- 1.0970 Support Remains Vulnerable

David Song, Shuyang Ren,

- U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) to Expand 200+K for Twelve Consecutive Months.

- Employment Rate, Average Hourly Earnings Expected to Narrow in February.

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Trading the News: U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls

Another 235K rise in U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) accompanied by a downward revision in the jobless rate may heighten the bullish sentiment surrounding the greenback and spur a further decline in EUR/USD as it fuels bets for a mid-2015 Fed rate hike.

What’s Expected:


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Why Is This Event Important:

However, a slowdown in Average Hourly Earnings may spur a mixed market reaction as the disinflationary environment dampens the Fed’s scope to normalize monetary policy, and Janet Yellen and Co. may ultimately share a similar fate to its U.K. counterpart as wage growth continues to lag behind the economic recovery.

Expectations: Bullish Argument/Scenario

ISM Non-Manufacturing (FEB)56.557.1
Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) (Annualized) (4Q S)2.0%2.2%
JOLTS Job Openings (DEC)49835028

The expansion service-based activity along with the rising number of job openings may generate a robust employment report, and a pickup in job/wage growth may spur a bullish reaction in the greenback as it boosts bets for higher-borrowing costs in the world’s largest economy.

Risk: Bearish Argument/Scenario

Challenger Job Cuts (YoY) (FEB)--20.9%
Personal Income (JAN)0.4%0.3%
Consumer Credit (DEC)$15.000B$14.755B

However, the ongoing rise in planned job-cuts paired with subdued household earnings may encourage the Fed to further delay its normalization cycle, and a marked slowdown in private wages may dampen the appeal of the reserve currency as it drags on interest rate expectations.

How To Trade This Event Risk(Video)

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Bullish USD Trade: Employment/Wage Growth Beats Market Forecast

  • Need red, five-minute candle following the release to consider a short trade on EUR/USD
  • If market reaction favors a bullish dollar trade, sell EUR/USD with two separate position
  • Set stop at the near-by swing high/reasonable distance from entry; look for at least 1:1 risk-to-reward
  • Move stop to entry on remaining position once initial target is hit; set reasonable limit

Bearish USD Trade: U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) Report Disappoints

  • Need green, five-minute candle to favor a long EUR/USD trade
  • Implement same setup as the bullish dollar trade, just in reverse

Potential Price Targets For The Release

EUR/USD Daily Chart

EUR/USD Daily Chart

Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

  • EUR/USD remains at risk for a further decline as the RSI retains the bearish momentum & pushes into oversold territory.
  • Interim Resistance: 1.1300 (100% expansion) to 1.1310 (161.8% expansion)
  • Interim Support: 1.0970 (38.2% expansion) to 1.1000 pivot

Read More:

GBPAUD Reversal at Interim Support- Scalps Target 1.9500

Retail Crowd Remains Net-Long EUR/USD- 1.0970 in Focus Ahead of NFP

Impact that the U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls report has had on EUR/USD during the previous month

PeriodData ReleasedEstimateActualPips ChangePips Change
JAN 201502/06/2015 13:30 GMT228K257K-107-131

January 2015 U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls


U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls (NFPs) increased 252K jobs in the first month of 2015, exceeding the 228K forecast, with the previous month’s print upwardly revised to 353K. At the same time, the unemployment rate unexpectedly increased to 5.7% from 5.6% during the same period as discouraged workers returned to the labor force, which pushed the participation rate to 62.9% from 62.7% in December. Meanwhile, Hourly Earnings grew more-than-expected, with the figure expanding an annualized 2.2% amid market expectations for a 1.9% clip. The better-than-expected prints certainly heightened the appeal of the greenback, with EUR/USD quickly sliding below the 1.1350 level to end the day at1.1313.

--- Written by David Song, Currency Analyst and Shuyang Ren

To contact David, e-mail Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong.

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