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GBP/USD Breakout to Accelerate on Sticky CPI, Strong Job/Wage Growth

GBP/USD Breakout to Accelerate on Sticky CPI, Strong Job/Wage Growth

2015-02-13 17:20:00
David Song, Strategist
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Talking Points:

- GBP/USD Breakout to Gather Pace on Sticky Core Inflation, Strong Job/Wage Growth.

- AUD/USD Opening Monthly Range Remains in Focus as RBA Strikes Balanced-Tone.

- USDOLLAR Extends Decline From Fresh Monthly High as U. of Michigan Confidence Disappoints.

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GBP/USD

GBP/USD Daily Chart

Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

  • Despite expectations of seeing a further slowdown in the U.K. Consumer Price Index (CPI), the stickiness in the core rate of inflation may limit the downside risk for GBP/USD as the Bank of England (BoE) retains its hawkish forward-guidance for monetary policy.
  • Will keep a close eye on U.K. Jobless Claims & Average Weekly Earnings as the BoE looks for a the fastest pace of wage growth in over a decade.
  • Seeing increased volatility in the DailyFX Speculative Sentiment Index (SSI) as retail crowd turned net-long GBP/USD as of February 12, with the ratio currently sitting at +1.15.

AUD/USD

AUD/USD Daily
  • Despite the dismal Australia Employment report, looks as though AUD/USD will preserve the opening monthly range as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) shows a more meaningful push off of oversold territory.
  • Recent commentary from Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Governor Glenn Stevens suggests the central bank will retain its current policy at the March 2 meeting, but seeing growing speculation for a rate cut as market participants price a 70% for another 25bp reduction in the cash rate according to overnight index swaps.
  • Near-term resistance comes in at 0.7850 (61.8% expansion) to 0.7880 (38.2% retracement), but will keep a close eye on former support around 0.8020-30 should AUD/USD mount a larger recovery in the days ahead.

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Read More:

DailyFX Technical Focus: 2/12/2015

AUDCAD Threatens Weekly Opening Range- Long Scalps Favored Above 9750

USDOLLAR(Ticker: USDollar):

Index

Last

High

Low

Daily Change (%)

Daily Range (% of ATR)

DJ-FXCM Dollar Index

11788.65

11810.96

11769.85

-0.14

57.82%

GBP/USD Breakout to Accelerate on Sticky CPI, Strong Job/Wage GrowthUSDOLLAR Daily Chart

Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

  • Dow Jones-FXCM U.S. Dollar continues to come off of fresh monthly high (11,886) as the dismal U. of Michigan Confidence survey dampens the outlook for private-sector consumption.
  • Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Minutes will certainly be in focus next week as central bank officials continue to call for a mid-2015 rate hike; will the Fed continue to look for faster consumption on lower energy prices?
  • With the ongoing range-bound price action in USDOLLAR, need a break/close out of the 11,721 (38.2% expansion) to 11,901 (78.6% expansion) region for a clearer direction bias.

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Release

GMT

Expected

Actual

Import Price Index (MoM) (JAN)

13:30

-3.2%

-2.8%

Import Price Index (YoY) (JAN)

13:30

-8.9%

-8.0%

U. of Michigan Confidence Survey (FEB P)

15:00

98.1

93.6

Fed’s Richard Fisher Speaks on U.S. Economy

18:30

Click Here for the DailyFX Calendar

--- Written by David Song, Currency Analyst

To contact David, e-mail dsong@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong.

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