We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

Free Trading Guides
EUR/USD
Mixed
Oil - US Crude
Mixed
Wall Street
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Gold
Mixed
GBP/USD
Mixed
USD/JPY
Bullish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
More View more
Real Time News
  • The possibility of a Covid-19 cure by year end keeps market sentiment high despite ongoing political tensions. Get your $USDMXN market update from @HathornSabin here: https://t.co/6DIf6krA3E https://t.co/IxeRbjHpQm
  • Join analyst @DavidJSong at 6:30 PM ET/10:30 PM GMT for your weekly update on key news trading events. Register here: https://t.co/gBlrRpCc55 https://t.co/qqWZkK1G8B
  • The commodity currencies, AUD, CAD, and NZD, which typically benefit from their higher yield profile relative to other currencies (the carry trade), no longer hold this advantage. Get your #currencies market update from @CVecchioFX here: https://t.co/3oWXhp0hCX https://t.co/qOgXnf0JKK
  • The long-term outlook for the Euro has been boosted significantly by a Franco-German proposal for a €500 billion coronavirus Recovery Fund, even though an agreement is not yet close. Get your $EURUSD market update from @MartinSEssex here: https://t.co/onP43pXuDi https://t.co/nynDJ9P6br
  • On Friday, EUR/GBP surged to an over six-week high at 0.8940 then closed the weekly candlestick in the green with a 2.3% gain. Get your $EURGBP market update from @malkudsi here: https://t.co/ln09Ijn7rd https://t.co/OCe7fzGGC0
  • The Canadian Dollar has proven stable in recent weeks following a dramatic turn lower in March, guided to the downside by energy markets. Get your $USDCAD market update from @CVecchioFX here: https://t.co/7tlrn74X3t https://t.co/OGqZzWaxU4
  • As political tensions between the US and China increase, $gld is picking up a safe-haven bid ahead of the long weekend and may look to press higher. Get your $XAUUSD market update from @nickcawley1 here: https://t.co/boUn4vyfCO https://t.co/sVtnBALhw7
  • Both WTI and Brent crude futures have conformed to the negative risk tone, however, investors will be eying the latest Baker Huges rig count for another drop in #oil rigs. Get your market update on currencies, commodities & stocks from @JMcQueenFX here: https://t.co/G6CEBzNXVA https://t.co/gosmDwkKSX
  • The $USD gained ground while the $SPX Index edged lower headed into the final trading session this week. Get your #equities market update from @RichDvorakFX here: https://t.co/lgn2Pg0TAH https://t.co/Wq3t8Q67U0
  • Gold: With the risk being shunned, gold has edged higher and continues to consolidate its recent push higher. The precious metal hit a seven-year high of $1,766/oz. Get your XAU/USD market update here: https://t.co/3JUEK5ONOl https://t.co/7Ft6FQfoEO
NZD/USD Rebound to Benefit from Strong NZ Employment- 0.7600 in Focus

NZD/USD Rebound to Benefit from Strong NZ Employment- 0.7600 in Focus

2015-02-03 19:10:00
David Song, Shuyang Ren,
Share:

- New Zealand Employment to Expand for Nine Consecutive Quarters.

- Jobless Rate to Narrow to Annualized 5.3%- Lowest Since 1Q 2009.

For more updates, sign up for David's e-mail distribution list.

Trading the News: New Zealand Employment Change

Another 0.8% expansion in New Zealand Employment may encourage a more meaningful rebound in NZD/USD as it raises the outlook for growth and inflation.

What’s Expected:

NZD/USD Employment

Click Here for the DailyFX Calendar

Why Is This Event Important:

As a result, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s (RBNZ) may have little choice but to retain its current policy over the near to medium-term, and Governor Graeme Wheeler may show a greater willingness to further normalize monetary policy later this year as the economic recovery gathers pace.

Expectations: Bullish Argument/Scenario

Release

Expected

Actual

NZIER Business Opinion Survey (4Q)

--

23

Gross Domestic Product s.a. (QoQ) (3Q)

0.7%

1.0%

Retail Sales ex Inflation (QoQ) (3Q)

0.8%

1.5%

Improved business confidence along with the expansion in private consumption may encourage a larger-than-expected rise in New Zealand employment, and an positive labor report may heighten the appeal of the kiwi as market participants scale back bets for a rate cut.

Risk: Bearish Argument/Scenario

Release

Expected

Actual

Building Permits (MoM) (DEC)

--

-2.1%

Home Loans (MoM) (NOV)

1.7%

-0.7%

Manufacturing Activity s.a. (QoQ) (3Q)

--

-1.2%

However, lower outputs pairs with the slowdown in building activity may drag on hiring, and a dismal development may spark another selloff in NZD/USD as spurs increased bets for lower borrowing-costs in New Zealand.

Join DailyFX on Demand for Real-Time SSI Updates!

How To Trade This Event Risk(Video)

Bullish NZD Trade: New Zealand Job Growth Exceeds Market Expectations

  • Need green, five-minute candle following the rate decision for a potential long NZD/USD trade
  • If market reaction favors a long kiwi trade, buy NZD/USD with two separate position
  • Set stop at the near-by swing low/reasonable distance from entry; look for at least 1:1 risk-to-reward
  • Move stop to breakeven on remaining position once initial target is met, set reasonable limit

Bearish NZD Trade: Employment Report Disappoints

  • Need red, five-minute candle to consider a short NZD/USD position
  • Carry out the same setup as the bullish kiwi trade, just in reverse

Read More:

GBPUSD - Working On A Bottom At Major Support

Price & Time: Gold Advance Resuming?

Potential Price Targets For The Release

NZD/USD Daily

NZD/USD Daily Chart

Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

  • Will watch former support regions for new resistance as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) comes off of oversold territory.
  • Interim Resistance: 0.7600 (38.2% expansion) to 0.7620 (61.8% retracement)
  • Interim Support: 0.7175 (Feb. low) to 0.7150 (78.6% expansion)

Impact that New Zealand Employment has had on NZD during the last release

Period

Data Released

Estimate

Actual

Pips Change

(1 Hour post event )

Pips Change

(End of Day post event)

3Q 2014

11/04/2014 21:45 GMT

0.6%

0.8%

+12

+15

3Q 2014 New Zealand Employment Change

NZD/USD Chart

New Zealand employment unexpectedly grew 0.8% in the third quarter after expanding 0.4% during the three-months through June, while the jobless rate narrowed to an annualized 5.4% to mark the lowest price since March 2009. The ongoing improvement in the labor market may push the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) to further normalize monetary policy, but it seems as though Governor Graeme Wheeler will continue to implement the verbal intervention on the local currency in an effort to boost the terms of trade. Nevertheless, the New Zealand dollar strengthened following the better-than-expected prints, with NZD/USD climbing above the 0.7750 region, but the market reaction failed to materialize throughout the day as the pair closed at 0.7733.

--- Written by David Song, Currency Analyst and Shuyang Ren

To contact David, e-mail dsong@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong.

To be added to David's e-mail distribution list, please follow this link.

Trade Alongsidethe DailyFX Team on DailyFX on Demand

Looking to use the DailyFX Trade Signals LIVE? Check out Mirror Trader.

New to FX? Watch this Video

Join us to discuss the outlook for the major currencies on the DailyFXForums

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES

News & Analysis at your fingertips.