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NZD/USD Rebound Vulnerable to RBNZ Verbal Intervention

NZD/USD Rebound Vulnerable to RBNZ Verbal Intervention

2014-12-10 18:05:00
David Song, Shuyang Ren,

- Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) to Keep Cash Rate on Hold at 3.50%.

- Will RBNZ Governor Graeme Wheeler Retain the Verbal Intervention on Kiwi?

For more updates, sign up for David's e-mail distribution list.

Trading the News: Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) Rate Decision

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) is widely expected to keep the benchmark interest rate on hold at 3.50% in December, but the fresh batch of central bank rhetoric may drag on NZD/USD should Governor Graeme Wheeler retain the verbal intervention on the local currency.

What’s Expected:


Click Here for the DailyFX Calendar

Why Is This Event Important:

As a result, NZD/USD may continue to carve lower highs & lows in December, and the policy divergence may continue to heavily impact the pair in 2015 especially as the Federal Reserve moves away from its easing cycle.

Expectations: Bearish Argument/Scenario




Trade Balance (OCT)



Value of All Buildings s.a. (QoQ) (3Q)



REINZ House Sales (YoY) (OCT)



The widening trade deficit paired with the slowdown in the housing market may keep the RBNZ on the sidelines, and NZD/USD may extend the decline from the previous month should Governor Wheeler take a more aggressive approach to weaken the New Zealand dollar.

Risk: Bullish Argument/Scenario




Retail Sales ex Inflation (QoQ) (3Q)



Average Hourly Earnings (QoQ) (3Q)



Employment Change (QoQ) (3Q)



Nevertheless, the RBNZ may scale back its dovish tone for monetary policy as stronger job & wage growth raises the fundamental outlook for the region, and NZD/USD may face a more meaningful rebound in the days ahead should the central bank show a greater willingness to lift the cash rate in 2015.

How To Trade This Event Risk(Video)

Bearish NZD Trade: RBNZ Retains Verbal Intervention, Curbs Rate Expectations

  • Need red, five-minute candle following the statement to consider a short New Zealand dollar trade
  • If market reaction favors selling kiwi, short NZD/USD with two separate position
  • Set stop at the near-by swing high/reasonable distance from entry; look for at least 1:1 risk-to-reward
  • Move stop to entry on remaining position once initial target is hit, set reasonable limit

Bullish NZD Trade: Governor Wheeler Drops Dovish Tone for Monetary Policy

  • Need green, five-minute candle to favor a long NZD/USD trade
  • Implement same setup as the bullish New Zealand dollar trade, just in the opposite direction

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Potential Price Targets For The Release

NZD/USD Daily Chart

NZD/USD Daily Chart

Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

  • Long-term outlook for NZD/USD remains bearish as price & RSI retain the bearish trends from earlier this year.
  • Interim Resistance: 0.7970 (50% retracement) to 0.7980 (61.8% retracement)
  • Interim Support: 0.7600 (38.2% expansion) to 0.7620 (50% expansion)

Read More:

GBP/USD Risks Larger Rebound as Bearish RSI Momentum Falters

Gold Scalps Target Key Inflection Range- Rally at Risk Sub-$1237

Impact that the RBNZ rate decision has had on NZD during the last meeting


Data Released



Pips Change

(1 Hour post event )

Pips Change

(End of Day post event)

OCT 2014

10/29/2014 20:00 GMT





October 2014 Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) Interest Rate Decision


Despite above-trend growth, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) kept the Official Cash Rate (OCR) 3.50% on the back of ‘modest’ inflation. It seems as though the RBNZ is in no rush to further normalize monetary policy as Governor Graeme Wheeler argues for a period of assessment before considering additional adjustment, and the New Zealand dollar remains at risk of facing additional headwinds over the near-term as the central bank retains the verbal intervention on the local currency. Despite the initial dip below 0.7775, the market reaction was short-lived, with NZD/USD closing the day at 0.7784.

--- Written by David Song, Currency Analyst and Shuyang Ren

To contact David, e-mail dsong@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong.

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