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EUR/USD Rebound Vulnerable to Strong Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) Report

EUR/USD Rebound Vulnerable to Strong Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) Report

David Song, Shuyang Ren,

- U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) to Expand 200+K for Tenth Time in 2014.

- Jobless Rate to Hold at 5.8% for Second Consecutive Month.

For more updates, sign up for David's e-mail distribution list.

Trading the News: U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls

The U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report may spark a bearish reaction in EUR/USD as market participants expected another 230K rise in employment paired with an uptick in wage growth.

What’s Expected:


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Why Is This Event Important:

A batch of positive developments may spark another near-term rally in the greenback especially as a growing number of Fed officials show a greater willingness to normalize monetary policy in 2015.

Expectations: Bullish Argument/Scenario




Challenger Job Cuts (YoY) (NOV)



Durable Goods Orders (OCT)



Gross Domestic Product (Annualized) (QoQ) (3Q S)



The decline in planned job cuts along with the pickup in economic activity may generate a strong employment report, and the dollar may continue to outperform against its major counterparts over the near to medium-term amid growing bets for higher borrowing-costs in the U.S.

Risk: Bearish Argument/Scenario




ISM Non-Manufacturing Employment (NOV)



ADP Employment Change (NOV)



ISM Manufacturing Employment (OCT)



However, the employment report may disappoint amid the ongoing slack in the labor market, and the greenback may face a larger correction over the near-term as a weaker-than-expected NFP print drags on interest rate expectations.

How To Trade This Event Risk(Video)

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Bullish USD Trade: Strong Job/Wage Growth Boosts Interest Rate Expectations

  • Need red, five-minute candle following the release to consider a short trade on EUR/USD
  • If market reaction favors a long dollar position, sell EUR/USD with two separate position
  • Set stop at the near-by swing high/reasonable distance from entry; look for at least 1:1 risk-to-reward
  • Move stop to entry on remaining position once initial target is hit; set reasonable limit

Bearish USD Trade: NFP Report Falls Short of Market Forecasts

  • Need green, five-minute candle to favor a long EUR/USD trade
  • Implement same setup as the bullish dollar trade, just in the opposite direction

Potential Price Targets For The Release



Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

  • Will retain the approach to sell-bounces in EUR/USD as price & RSI preserve the bearish trend.
  • Interim Resistance: 1.2600 pivot to 1.2610 (61.8% expansion)
  • Interim Support: 1.2280 (100% expansion) to 1.2290 (38.2% expansion)

Read More:

Key EURUSD Scalp Targets Heading Into ECB / NFPs

Gold Trading Around Year Open; Bottoming Process?

Impact that the U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls report has had on EUR/USD during the previous month


Data Released



Pips Change

(1 Hour post event )

Pips Change

(End of Day post event)

OCT 2014

11/07/2014 13:30 GMT





October 2014 U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls


U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls (NFPs) increased another 214K in October following a revised 256K expansion the month prior, marking the consecutive 9th month with an employment increase over 200K. Despite the weaker-than-expected print, the unemployment rate unexpectedly slipped to an annualized 5.8% from 5.9% during the same period to mark the lowest reading since August 2008. Moreover, the report continued to highlight anemic wage growth as Average Hourly Earnings held steady at 2.0%, and the subdued outlook for inflation may encourage the Fed to retain its highly accommodative policy stance for an extended period of time in an effort to foster a stronger recovery. The greenback largely struggled to hold its ground following the mixed print as EUR/USD held above the 1.2400 handle going into the European close, with the pair ending the day at 1.2453.

--- Written by David Song, Currency Analyst and Shuyang Ren

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