We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

Free Trading Guides
EUR/USD
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
GBP/USD
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
USD/JPY
Mixed
Gold
Bearish
Oil - US Crude
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Bitcoin
Bearish
More View more
Notice

DailyFX PLUS Content Now Available Freely to all DailyFX Users

Real Time News
  • CHF Switzerland Aug Exports MM Actual: -4.4% Previous: -1.2% Imports MM Actual: 1.0% Previous: -0.5% Swiss Watch Exports YY Actual: 1.5% Previous: 4.7%
  • European Opening Calls: From IG #FTSE 7299 -0.20% #DAX 12384 -0.04% #CAC 5621 +0.01% #IBEX 9046 +0.16% #STOXX 3529 +0.03%
  • Follow @DailyFXedu for your regular #webinar updates with @DailyFX analysts and catch up on the webinars you missed. https://t.co/72SjAaa27X
  • My trading video for today: $Dollar and S&P 500 Strategy for the #FOMC Rate Decision' https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/video/daily_news_report/2019/09/19/Dollar-and-SP-500-Steady-After-Fed-Cut-Monetary-Policy-Remains-Top-Concern.html?utm_source=Twitter&utm_medium=Kicklighter&utm_campaign=twr
  • How can you avoid #FOMOintrading with easy seven steps to creating a trading plan? Find out from @RichardSnowFX here: https://t.co/y2UvtIRZAG https://t.co/mBzJBviQDO
  • 🇯🇵 (JPY) All Industry Activity Index (MoM) (JUL), Actual: 0.2% Expected: 0.2% Previous: -0.7% https://www.dailyfx.com/calendar?utm_source=Twitter&utm_medium=TweetRobot&utm_campaign=twr
  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in Ripple are long at 97.35%, while traders in France 40 are at opposite extremes with 83.89%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX: https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment https://t.co/SXDGRBOC4e
  • Heads Up:🇯🇵 JPY All Industry Activity Index (MoM) (JUL) due at 04:30 GMT (15min), Actual: N/A Expected: 0.2% Previous: -0.8% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2019-09-19
  • Forex Update: As of 04:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: 🇯🇵JPY: 0.53% 🇨🇭CHF: 0.10% 🇪🇺EUR: 0.06% 🇬🇧GBP: -0.04% 🇳🇿NZD: -0.08% 🇦🇺AUD: -0.56% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#currencies https://t.co/FYKlVlhoR3
  • Heads Up: 🇯🇵 (JPY) All Industry Activity Index (MoM) (JUL) due at 04:30:00 GMT (15min) Expected: 0.2% Previous: -0.8%
EUR/USD Rebound Vulnerable to Strong Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) Report

EUR/USD Rebound Vulnerable to Strong Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) Report

2014-12-05 08:00:00
David Song, Shuyang Ren,
Share:

- U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) to Expand 200+K for Tenth Time in 2014.

- Jobless Rate to Hold at 5.8% for Second Consecutive Month.

For more updates, sign up for David's e-mail distribution list.

Trading the News: U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls

The U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report may spark a bearish reaction in EUR/USD as market participants expected another 230K rise in employment paired with an uptick in wage growth.

What’s Expected:

EUR/USD NFP

Click Here for the DailyFX Calendar

Why Is This Event Important:

A batch of positive developments may spark another near-term rally in the greenback especially as a growing number of Fed officials show a greater willingness to normalize monetary policy in 2015.

Expectations: Bullish Argument/Scenario

Release

Expected

Actual

Challenger Job Cuts (YoY) (NOV)

--

-20.7%

Durable Goods Orders (OCT)

-0.6%

0.4%

Gross Domestic Product (Annualized) (QoQ) (3Q S)

3.3%

3.9%

The decline in planned job cuts along with the pickup in economic activity may generate a strong employment report, and the dollar may continue to outperform against its major counterparts over the near to medium-term amid growing bets for higher borrowing-costs in the U.S.

Risk: Bearish Argument/Scenario

Release

Expected

Actual

ISM Non-Manufacturing Employment (NOV)

--

56.7

ADP Employment Change (NOV)

222K

208K

ISM Manufacturing Employment (OCT)

--

54.9

However, the employment report may disappoint amid the ongoing slack in the labor market, and the greenback may face a larger correction over the near-term as a weaker-than-expected NFP print drags on interest rate expectations.

How To Trade This Event Risk(Video)

Join DailyFX on Demand for Full Coverage of U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls

Bullish USD Trade: Strong Job/Wage Growth Boosts Interest Rate Expectations

  • Need red, five-minute candle following the release to consider a short trade on EUR/USD
  • If market reaction favors a long dollar position, sell EUR/USD with two separate position
  • Set stop at the near-by swing high/reasonable distance from entry; look for at least 1:1 risk-to-reward
  • Move stop to entry on remaining position once initial target is hit; set reasonable limit

Bearish USD Trade: NFP Report Falls Short of Market Forecasts

  • Need green, five-minute candle to favor a long EUR/USD trade
  • Implement same setup as the bullish dollar trade, just in the opposite direction

Potential Price Targets For The Release

EUR/USD Daily

EUR/USD Daily

Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

  • Will retain the approach to sell-bounces in EUR/USD as price & RSI preserve the bearish trend.
  • Interim Resistance: 1.2600 pivot to 1.2610 (61.8% expansion)
  • Interim Support: 1.2280 (100% expansion) to 1.2290 (38.2% expansion)

Read More:

Key EURUSD Scalp Targets Heading Into ECB / NFPs

Gold Trading Around Year Open; Bottoming Process?

Impact that the U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls report has had on EUR/USD during the previous month

Period

Data Released

Estimate

Actual

Pips Change

(1 Hour post event )

Pips Change

(End of Day post event)

OCT 2014

11/07/2014 13:30 GMT

235K

214K

+21

+66

October 2014 U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls

EUR/USD Chart

U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls (NFPs) increased another 214K in October following a revised 256K expansion the month prior, marking the consecutive 9th month with an employment increase over 200K. Despite the weaker-than-expected print, the unemployment rate unexpectedly slipped to an annualized 5.8% from 5.9% during the same period to mark the lowest reading since August 2008. Moreover, the report continued to highlight anemic wage growth as Average Hourly Earnings held steady at 2.0%, and the subdued outlook for inflation may encourage the Fed to retain its highly accommodative policy stance for an extended period of time in an effort to foster a stronger recovery. The greenback largely struggled to hold its ground following the mixed print as EUR/USD held above the 1.2400 handle going into the European close, with the pair ending the day at 1.2453.

--- Written by David Song, Currency Analyst and Shuyang Ren

To contact David, e-mail dsong@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong.

To be added to David's e-mail distribution list, please follow this link.

Trade Alongsidethe DailyFX Team on DailyFX on Demand

Looking to use the DailyFX Trade Signals LIVE? Check out Mirror Trader.

New to FX? Watch this Video

Join us to discuss the outlook for the major currencies on the DailyFXForums

provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES

News & Analysis at your fingertips.