We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

Free Trading Guides
EUR/USD
Bearish
Oil - US Crude
Mixed
Wall Street
Bullish
Gold
Bearish
GBP/USD
Mixed
USD/JPY
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
More View more
Real Time News
  • The US Dollar may be at risk to losses against some of its #ASEAN counterparts. USD/SGD, USD/PHP, USD/MYR and USD/IDR have recently broken to the downside. Will losses continue? Find out from @ddubrovskyFX here: https://t.co/0RTlj6maTT https://t.co/UyQ4i0AihI
  • The British Pound technical outlook still seems to favor the downside. GBP/CAD may pressure key rising support from August as GBP/AUD could prolong its downtrend. GBP/CHF may fall. Get your $GBP market update from @ddubrovskyFX here: https://t.co/hBOpDKXmfW https://t.co/AJlT2YKeCu
  • USD/JPY is approaching medium-term uptrend resistance and while the outlook remains constructive, the advance may be vulnerable near-term while below confluence resistance. Get your $USDJPY technical analysis from @MBForex here: https://t.co/93D7AyhHtG https://t.co/KQcLLrkMP3
  • AUD/USD has had the most impressive show of trend over the past couple of months with the pair gaining almost 1500 pips from the March low. Get your $AUDUSD technical analysis from @JStanleyFX here: https://t.co/vLz4Rpln3u https://t.co/AOwnJja5V8
  • Has the #Euro been saved? Find out from @CVecchioFX here: https://t.co/eiXfOTyGa6 https://t.co/AyRiYpb4cN
  • U.S. Market Analyst at https://t.co/JsVsSmefgR, Shain Vernier covers - ✔️ Safe haven assets in volatile markets ✔️ Central banks and governments ✔️ How will commodities trade in a recession Only on Trading Global Markets Decoded #podcast. Tune in here: https://t.co/1UmEzEbwiy https://t.co/ygwjGNvS61
  • The $USD, Euro, British Pound and Australian Dollar will all be at the mercy of political developments in Asia, Europe and North America this week. An avalanche of PMI data will set the backdrop. Find out from @ZabelinDimitri here: https://t.co/L8cfAgVx94 https://t.co/THWhPAS6AM
  • The price of #gold plunged 1% immediately after the stunning US jobs report crossed the wires. Get your market update from @RichDvorakFX here: https://t.co/8i0L6YIqjy https://t.co/y9dIXazJf9
  • S&P 500, Dow Jones, Nasdaq explode higher with stocks surging in response to shockingly better-than-expected monthly jobs data. Get your #equities market update from @RichDvorakFX here: https://t.co/nuMVWOzzuC https://t.co/M3nGBjd7kZ
  • The record-breaking NFPs increase behind us and the FOMC rate decision on Wednesday sets the tone for my trading video: 'Dow Soars Above 200-Day Average on NFPs, Will the #Fed Keep the Dollar Sliding' https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/video/daily_news_report/2020/06/06/Dow-Soars-Above-200-Day-Average-on-NFPs-Will-the-Fed-Keep-the-Dollar-Sliding.html?ref-author=Kicklighter&QPID=917719&CHID=9 https://t.co/kquvec5HVc
AUD/USD Fails to Retain Bullish RSI Momentum Ahead of RBA Meeting

AUD/USD Fails to Retain Bullish RSI Momentum Ahead of RBA Meeting

2014-11-03 22:00:00
David Song, Shuyang Ren,
Share:

- Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) to Keep Cash Rate on Hold for Thirteen-Consecutive Months.

-Will Governor Glenn Stevens Continue to Implement the Verbal Intervention?

For more updates, sign up for David's e-mail distribution list.

Trading the News: Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Interest Rate Decision

Even though the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is widely expected to keep the benchmark interest rate at 2.50% in November, the AUD/USD remains vulnerable to further losses as Governor Glenn Stevens retains the verbal intervention on the aussie.

What’s Expected:

AUD/USD RBA

Click Here for the DailyFX Calendar

Why Is This Event Important:

Indeed, the central bank head may even take a more aggressive approach in jawboning the local currency amid the slowing recovery in China – Australia’s largest trading partner – and we may see renewed bets for additional monetary support on the back drop of the weakening outlook for global growth.

Expectations: Bearish Argument/Scenario

Release

Expected

Actual

Consumer Price Index- Trimmed Mean (YoY) (3Q)

2.7%

2.5%

Employment Change (SEP)

15.5K

-29.7K

Retail Sales (MoM) (AUG)

0.4%

0.1%

The persistent slack surrounding the region may push the RBA to adopt a more dovish tone for monetary policy, and the AUD/USD may mark fresh lows over the near-term should the RBA toughen the verbal intervention to further assist with the rebalancing of the real economy.

Risk: Bullish Argument/Scenario

Release

Expected

Actual

Private Sector Credit (YoY) (SEP)

5.3%

5.4%

AiG Performance of Construction Index (SEP)

--

59.1

Gross Domestic Product s.a. (QoQ) (2Q)

0.4%

0.5%

However, we may get more of the same from Governor Stevens as the central bank head remains confident in achieving a sustainable recovery, and the AUD/USD may continue to face range-bound prices if the RBA shows a greater willingness to normalize monetary policy in the year ahead.

Sign Up for DailyFX on Demand for Real-Time SSI Updates!

How To Trade This Event Risk(Video)

Bearish AUD Trade: RBA Continues to Embark on Verbal Intervention

  • Need red, five-minute candle following a dovish statement for a potential short AUD/USD trade
  • If market reaction favors a short aussie trade, sell AUD/USD with two separate position
  • Set stop at the near-by swing high/reasonable distance from entry; look for at least 1:1 risk-to-reward
  • Move stop to breakeven on remaining position once initial target is met, set reasonable limit

Bullish AUD Trade: Governor Stevens Drops Dovish Tone

  • Need green, five-minute candle following the meeting to consider a long AUD/USD position
  • Carry out the same setup as the bearish aussie trade, just in the opposite direction

Read More:

Price & Time: Where To Next For USD/JPY?

Monetary Policy on Trial with RBA, ECB, and NFPs this Week

Potential Price Targets For The Release

AUD/USD Daily Chart

AUD/USD Daily Chart

Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

  • Downside targets favored for AUD/USD as it fails to retain the series of higher-lows; bearish break in RSI favors ‘selling bounces.’
  • Interim Resistance: 0.8840 (23.6% retracement) to 0.8865 (61.8% expansion)
  • Interim Support: 0.8600 pivot to 0.8610 (38.2% expansion)

Impact that RBA interest rate decision has had on AUD during the last release

Period

Data Released

Estimate

Actual

Pips Change

(1 Hour post event )

Pips Change

(End of Day post event)

OCT 2014

10/07/2014 3:30 GMT

2.50%

2.50%

-2

+44

October 2014 Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Rate Decision

AUD/USD Daily Chart

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) stuck to its current policy and left the target cash rate at the historical low for another month, but went onto say that the Australian dollar remains high relative to the decline in commodity prices as the central bank continues to see a period of interest rate stability in the $1T economy. Despite the verbal intervention, the AUD/USD traded above the 0.8800 handle following the rate decision, but struggled to hold its ground throughout the day as the pair closed at 0.8793.

--- Written by David Song, Currency Analyst and Shuyang Ren

To contact David, e-mail dsong@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong.

To be added to David's e-mail distribution list, please follow this link.

Trade Alongsidethe DailyFX Team on DailyFX on Demand

Looking to use the DailyFX Trade Signals LIVE? Check out Mirror Trader.

New to FX? Watch this Video

Join us to discuss the outlook for the major currencies on the DailyFXForums

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES

News & Analysis at your fingertips.