News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site. See our updated Privacy Policy here.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
More View more
Real Time News
  • Dow hits new record high...boom! $DJI
  • Commodities Update: As of 16:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Silver: 2.81% Gold: 0.89% Oil - US Crude: 0.58% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#commodities https://t.co/FiM78jjd0z
  • Forex Update: As of 16:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: 🇳🇿NZD: 0.71% 🇦🇺AUD: 0.53% 🇨🇭CHF: 0.35% 🇬🇧GBP: 0.19% 🇪🇺EUR: 0.11% 🇯🇵JPY: 0.11% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#currencies https://t.co/o4Bg5hW0tn
  • #Oil Technical Forecast: Oil Eight-Week Rally Vulnerable- $WTI Levels ($USOil) - https://t.co/32p8cbyZVr https://t.co/PPWB11MbRh
  • Indices Update: As of 16:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Wall Street: 0.45% US 500: 0.40% France 40: 0.01% Germany 30: 0.00% FTSE 100: -0.10% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#indices https://t.co/brXwszjzBv
  • RT @jason_donner: Pelosi on if a framework can be reached by end of week: “Let’s see…we have met every milestone along the way in our timet…
  • RT @breakingmkts: *PAYPAL SAID TO EXPLORE PURCHASE OF SOCIAL MEDIA FIRM PINTEREST $PYPL $PINS
  • Wondering if $MS will drop its fire and ice scenario at some point or continue to call for a major pullback in stocks? #trading $SPX $DJI $RUT
  • Risk appetite is on the hunt for record highs to start the New York session with Bitcoin hitting the mark at $66,000 and the S&P 500 within easy reach of 4,545. DailyFX's @JohnKickligther discusses what is ahead today! https://t.co/HRDercEcMU
  • $DJIA about to hit its all time high https://t.co/dX26Ib4Bbc
AUD/USD to Eye 0.9500 on Strong Australian Employment Report

AUD/USD to Eye 0.9500 on Strong Australian Employment Report

David Song, Strategist

- Australia Employment to Increase for Fifth Time in 2014.

- Jobless Rate to Uptick to an Annualized 5.9%- Highest Since February.

Trading the News: Australia Employment Change

The AUD/USD may continue to retrace the decline from the beginning of the month as the Australian economy is expected to add 12.0K jobs in June.

What’s Expected:

AUD/USD Employment

Click Here for the DailyFX Calendar

Why Is This Event Important:

However, an uptick in the jobless rate may spark a mixed reaction in the AUD/USD as the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) persistently highlight the ongoing slack in the labor market, and Governor Glenn Stevens may continue to toughen the verbal intervention on the Australian dollar in an effort to further assist with the rebalancing of the $1T economy.

Expectations: Bullish Argument/Scenario

Release

Expected

Actual

Building Approvals (MoM) (MAY)

3.2%

9.9%

AiG Performance of Construction Index (JUN)

--

51.8

Gross Domestic Product s.a. (QoQ) (1Q)

0.9%

1.1%

The pickup in building activity may produce a strong rebound in employment as the central bank keeps the benchmark interest rate at the record-low, and the accommodative policy stance may continue to boost private sector activity as Governor Stevens expects a moderate recovery.

Risk: Bearish Argument/Scenario

Release

Expected

Actual

Retail Sales (MoM) (MAY)

0.0%

-0.5%

Trade Balance (MAY)

-200M

-1911M

AiG Performance of Manufacturing Index (JUN)

--

48.9

However, weakening demands at home and abroad may push businesses to scale back on hiring, and a dismal employment print may put increased pressure on the RBA to further embark on its easing cycle in an effort to encourage a stronger recovery.

Sign up for David’s Email Distribution List for More Updates!

How To Trade This Event Risk(Video)

Bullish AUD Trade: Employment Climbs 12.0K+, Jobless Rates Holds at 5.8%

  • Need green, five-minute candle following the statement for a potential long AUD/USD trade
  • If market reaction favors a long aussie trade, buy AUD/USD with two separate position
  • Set stop at the near-by swing low/reasonable distance from entry; look for at least 1:1 risk-to-reward
  • Move stop to breakeven on remaining position once initial target is met, set reasonable limit

Bearish AUD Trade: Australia Job Report Disappoints

  • Need red, five-minute candle to consider a short AUD/USD position
  • Carry out the same setup as the bullish aussie trade, just in the opposite direction

Potential Price Targets For The Release

Join DailyFX on Demandfor Real-Time Updates on the DailyFX Speculative Sentiment Index!

AUD/USD Daily

AUD/USD Daily Chart

Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

  • Ascending Channel Formation Remains Favored, But RBA Verbal Intervention May Cap Topside Targets
  • Interim Resistance: 0.9500 (38.2% retracement) to 0.9520 (78.6% retracement)
  • Interim Support: 0.9330 (61.8% expansion) to 0.9340 (61.8% retracement)

Impact that Australia’s Employment report has had on AUD during the last release

Period

Data Released

Estimate

Actual

Pips Change

(1 Hour post event )

Pips Change

(End of Day post event)

MAY 2014

06/12/2014 4:30 GMT

10.0K

-4.8K

-6

+41

May 2014 Australia Employment Change

AUD/USD Chart

Employment in Australia unexpectedly slipped 4.8K in May to mark the first decline since December, while the jobless rate held steady at an annualized 5.8% for the third consecutive month. The weaker-than-expected print dragged on the Australian dollar, with the AUD/USD dipping below the 0.9350 region, but the market reaction was short-lived as the pair ended the day at 0.9422.

Read More:

AUDUSD July Range Targets Key Support- Shorts Favored Sub 9440

GBPJPY Targets Channel Support- Longs Favored Above 173.75

--- Written by David Song, Currency Analyst

To contact David, e-mail dsong@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong.

To be added to David's e-mail distribution list, please follow this link.

Trade Alongsidethe DailyFX Team on DailyFX on Demand

Looking to use the DailyFX Trade Signals LIVE? Check out Mirror Trader.

New to FX? Watch this Video

Join us to discuss the outlook for the major currencies on the DailyFXForums

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES