News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site. See our updated Privacy Policy here.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
EUR/USD
Bearish
Oil - US Crude
Mixed
Wall Street
Mixed
Gold
Bearish
GBP/USD
Bearish
USD/JPY
Mixed
More View more
Real Time News
  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in Gold are long at 86.01%, while traders in France 40 are at opposite extremes with 69.54%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX: https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment https://t.co/1KacM0SzUu
  • Please join @CVecchioFX at 7:30 EST/11:30 GMT for a webinar where you can develop a strategy for a major risk event. Register here: https://t.co/D8DAmLpkuS https://t.co/cXy5YF2QOe
  • Commodities Update: As of 10:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Gold: 1.03% Silver: 0.71% Oil - US Crude: 0.06% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#commodities https://t.co/c1PEiidgUD
  • Forex Update: As of 10:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: 🇳🇿NZD: 0.47% 🇬🇧GBP: 0.42% 🇦🇺AUD: 0.35% 🇪🇺EUR: 0.28% 🇨🇭CHF: 0.18% 🇯🇵JPY: 0.07% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#currencies https://t.co/TTQNPmO5N9
  • It seems the markets are riding high, but risk is always lurking around the corner. Consider your escape plan before you find yourself in collapsing market. What are the top havens for different conditions in 2021? Find out from @JohnKicklighter here: https://t.co/1oeXWEsJkb https://t.co/uXSofbvppi
  • Iranian President Elect Raisi says we want verification for US sanctions removal #OOTT
  • Indices Update: As of 10:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Germany 30: 0.65% Wall Street: 0.56% FTSE 100: 0.46% US 500: 0.45% France 40: 0.44% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#indices https://t.co/rOaykvimoe
  • China asks banks and alipay not to involve in Crypto operations
  • Swedish PM Lofven loses vote of no confidence $SEK
  • $SEK https://t.co/wsDlD7ontr
AUD/USD Bearish Momentum Favored on Dovish RBA- 0.9200 Remains Key

AUD/USD Bearish Momentum Favored on Dovish RBA- 0.9200 Remains Key

David Song, Strategist

- Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) to Keep Benchmark Rate at 2.50%

- RBA to Preserve Current Policy for the Eighth Consecutive Meeting

Trading the News: Reserve Bank of Australia Interest Rate Decision

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is widely expected to keep the benchmark interest rate at 2.50% in June, but the AUD/USD may struggle to hold above the 0.9200 support zone should the central bank adopt a more dovish tone for monetary policy.

What’s Expected:

AUD/USD RBA

Click Here for the DailyFX Calendar

Why Is This Event Important:

Given the resilience in the Australian dollar, Governor Glenn Stevens may take a more aggressive approach in weakening the higher-yielding currency as market participants continue to ignore the verbal intervention, and the AUD/USD may face a more material decline over the next 24-hours of trading should the RBA favor additional tools to drive the exchange rate lower.

Expectations: Bullish Argument/Scenario

Release

Expected

Actual

Private Sector Credit (MoM) (APR)

2.5K

18.1K

Construction Work Done (1Q)

-0.5%

0.3%

Employment Change (APR)

8.8K

14.2K

The threat of an asset-bubble paired with the ongoing improvement in the labor market may prompt the RBA to adopt a more upbeat tone for the $1T economy, and the AUD/USD may continue to build a near-term base around the 0.9200 support zone should the central bank highlight an improved outlook for growth and inflation.

Risk: Bearish Argument/Scenario

Release

Expected

Actual

Inventories s.a. (QoQ) (1Q)

-0.4%

-1.7%

Building Approvals (MoM) (APR)

2.0%

-5.6%

Retail Sales ex Inflation (QoQ) (1Q)

1.6%

1.2%

However, the RBA may sound more cautious this time around amid the persistent decline in inventories along with the slowdown in private sector consumption, and the AUD/USD may face a larger decline in June should Governor Stevens show a greater willingness to further embark on the easing cycle.

How To Trade This Event Risk(Video)

Bullish AUD Trade: RBA Keeps Current Policy & Sees Greater Scope for Rate Hike

  • Need green, five-minute candle following the statement for a potential long Australian dollar trade
  • If market reaction favors a long trade, buy AUD/USD with two separate position
  • Set stop at the near-by swing low/reasonable distance from entry; look for at least 1:1 risk-to-reward
  • Move stop to breakeven on remaining position once initial target is met, set reasonable limit

Bearish AUD Trade: Governor Stevens Adopts Dovish Tone

  • Need red, five-minute candle to consider a short AUD/USD position
  • Carry out the same setup as the bullish aussie trade, just in the opposite direction

Potential Price Targets For The Release

Join DailyFX on Demand to Cover Current Australian dollar Trade Setups

AUD/USD Daily

AUD/USD Daily Chart

Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

  • Need Break & Close Below Support to Favor the Bearish RSI Momentum
  • Interim Resistance: 0.9460-70 (23.6 expansion)
  • Interim Support: 0.9200 (100.0 expansion) to 0.9220 (61.8 retracement)

Impact that Reserve Bank of Australia has had on AUD during the last meeting

Period

Data Released

Estimate

Actual

Pips Change

(1 Hour post event )

Pips Change

(End of Day post event)

MAY 2014

05/06/2014 4:30 GMT

2.50%

2.50%

-4

+60

May 2014 Reserve Bank of Australia Rate Decision

AUD/USD Chart

As expected, the RBA stuck to its current policy in April as Governor Stevens continues to see a likely period of ‘interest-rate stability,’ while the central bank warned that the exchange rate remains high by historical standards amid the rebalancing of the real economy. Despite the limited market reaction to the interest rate decision, the AUD/USD pushed back above the 0.9300 during the European session, with the pair ending the day at 0.9340.

Read More:

COT Positioning of Interest in AUD, JPY, and MXN

June Forex Seasonality Sees US Dollar Outperformance versus Aussie, Euro

--- Written by David Song, Currency Analyst

To contact David, e-mail dsong@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong.

To be added to David's e-mail distribution list, please follow this link.

Trade Alongsidethe DailyFX Team on DailyFX on Demand

Looking to use the DailyFX Trade Signals LIVE? Check out Mirror Trader.

New to FX? Watch this Video

Join us to discuss the outlook for the major currencies on the DailyFXForums

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES