News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site. See our updated Privacy Policy here.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
More View more
Breaking news

Federal Reserve Leaves Interest Rates Unchanged, Maintains Monthly Asset Purchases

Real Time News
  • GBP/USD pushes higher as UK COVID cases fall, Fed remains highly accommodative $GBPUSD https://t.co/bPAGpMkhjN
  • GBP/USD has been lifted by signs that coronavirus cases in the UK are dropping and by suggestions that office attendance is rising.Get your $GBPUSD market update from @MartinSEssex here:https://t.co/RZxPm1XLto https://t.co/SIEjfEffBW
  • Commodities Update: As of 20:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Silver: 1.20% Gold: 0.49% Oil - US Crude: -0.07% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#commodities https://t.co/HByKIG4bmC
  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in Silver are long at 93.75%, while traders in France 40 are at opposite extremes with 69.77%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX: https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment https://t.co/tC95moURI1
  • $USD now at two week lows, cutting into secondary support zone 92.19-92.26 $DXY https://t.co/n14cvwLofZ https://t.co/HaPRsGzyxJ
  • Infrastructure week, for real this time https://t.co/jh4BLwj0aC
  • Facebook Earnings Summary: Revenues: $29.08 B vs $27.89 B est. EPS: $3.61 vs. $3.03 est. $FB down ~5% in AH session
  • Update - gold extending its rally to session highs as the US Dollar continues to slide following this comment from Powell. The Fed Chair also stuck to his transitory inflation script during the presser. Meanwhile, real yields just hit new all-time lows. $GLD $DXY $XAUUSD https://t.co/GEpIKpttUs
  • Indices Update: As of 20:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Wall Street: -0.00% US 500: -0.02% France 40: -0.09% FTSE 100: -0.13% Germany 30: -0.15% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#indices https://t.co/3OyFlMWOIP
  • @DailyFX https://t.co/hNPCLIOo20
GBP/USD at Risk for Larger Pullback on Slowing U.K. Inflation

GBP/USD at Risk for Larger Pullback on Slowing U.K. Inflation

David Song, Gregory Marks,

- U.K. Consumer Price Index (CPI) to Narrow for Six Consecutive Month.

- Core Inflation Unexpectedly Held Steady at 1.7% in February.

Trading the News: U.K. Consumer Price Index

Slowing inflation in the U.K. may spur a larger correction in the GBP/USD as it allows the Bank of England (BoE) to retain its highly accommodative policy stance for an extended period of time.

What’s Expected:

GBP/USD volatiltiy on Bank of England BoE CPI

Why Is This Event Important:

The BoE may further delay its exit strategy in an effort to address the ongoing slack in the U.K. economy, but Governor Mark Carney may show a greater willingness to normalize monetary policy sooner rather than later as the central bank anticipates a stronger recovery in 2014.

Join DailyFX on Demand to Cover Current British Pound Trade Setups

Expectations: Bearish Argument/Scenario

Release

Expected

Actual

Net Consumer Credit (FEB)

0.7B

0.6B

BRC Shop Price Index (YoY) (MAR)

-1.5%

-1.7%

Producer Price Index- Output n.s.a. (YoY) (FEB)

0.7%

0.5%

Easing input prices paired with the slowdown in private sector credit may prompt businesses to offer discounted prices to U.K. households, and a weaker-than-expected inflation print may generate a larger pullback in the GBP/USD as it raises the BoE’s scope to retain its highly accommodative policy stance for an extended period of time.

Risk: Bullish Argument/Scenario

Release

Expected

Actual

GfK Consumer Confidence (MAR)

-6

-5

Retail Sales ex Auto (MoM) (FEB)

0.1%

1.8%

Average Weekly Earnings ex Bonus (3MoY) (JAN)

1.2%

1.3%

Nevertheless, the resilience in household consumption along with the pickup in wage may encourage U.K. firms to raise consumer prices, and a stronger-than-expected CPI print may heighten the bullish sentiment surrounding the British Pound as it fuels interest rate expectations.

How To Trade This Event Risk(Video)

Bearish GBP Trade: U.K. CPI Slows to 1.6% or Lower

  • Need red, five-minute candle following the release to consider a short British Pound trade
  • If market reaction favors selling sterling, short GBPUSD with two separate position
  • Set stop at the near-by swing high/reasonable distance from entry; look for at least 1:1 risk-to-reward
  • Move stop to entry on remaining position once initial target is hit, set reasonable limit

Bullish GBP Trade: Headline & Core U.K. Inflation Exceeds Market Expectations

  • Need green, five-minute candle to favor a long GBPUSD trade
  • Implement same setup as the bearish British Pound trade, just in opposite direction

Potential Price Targets For The Release

GBP/USD Daily

GBP/USD Daily Chart

Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

  • Failure to Push Above February High (1.6821) Raises Risk for Double-Top Formation
  • Bullish RSI Momentum Continues to Favor Series of Higher Highs & Higher Lows
  • Interim Resistance: 1.6850-60 (78.6% expansion)
  • Interim Support: 1.6400 (61.8% expansion) to 1.6430 (23.6% expansion)

Impact that the U.K. CPI report has had on GBP during the last release

Period

Data Released

Estimate

Actual

Pips Change

(1 Hour post event )

Pips Change

(End of Day post event)

FEB 2014

03/25/2014 9:30 GMT

0.5%

0.5%

+17

+45

February 2014 U.K. Consumer Price Index

GBPUSD Chart

The YoY figure for U.K. CPI came in at 1.7% as expected and the MoM figure at 0.5%. The Pound saw a move to the upside that was quickly retraced, but the GBPUSD pair ended the day up 45 pips from the release. As for insight into this print, if we do see CPI come in under market expectation it is likely that we may see GBP weakness. This may be especially pronounced in the context of a possible double top and resurgence of USD strength post-Retail Sales that came in better than expected on Monday morning in NY.

--- Written by David Song, Currency Analyst and Gregory Marks

To contact David, e-mail dsong@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong.

To be added to David's e-mail distribution list, please follow this link.

Trade Alongsidethe DailyFX Team on DailyFX on Demand

Looking to use the DailyFX Trade Signals LIVE? Check out Mirror Trader.

New to FX? Watch this Video

Join us to discuss the outlook for the major currencies on the DailyFXForums

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES