News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
EUR/USD
Mixed
Oil - US Crude
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Wall Street
Mixed
Gold
Bullish
GBP/USD
Bullish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
USD/JPY
Bearish
More View more
Real Time News
  • The Federal Reserve System (the Fed) was founded in 1913 by the United States Congress. The Fed’s actions and policies have a major impact on currency value, affecting many trades involving the US Dollar. Learn more about the Fed here: https://t.co/ADSC4sIHrP https://t.co/cP7ZhDHoNA
  • Heads Up:🇨🇳 FDI (YTD) YoY (DEC) due at 07:00 GMT (15min) Previous: 6.3% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2021-01-18
  • Wall Street Futures Update: Dow Jones (-0.133%) S&P 500 (-0.193%) Nasdaq 100 (-0.184%) [delayed] -BBG
  • Key levels in forex tend to draw attention to traders in the market. These are psychological prices which tie into the human psyche and way of thinking. Learn about psychological levels here: https://t.co/8A1QhwMVKo https://t.co/dPj0seqzQS
  • An upbeat China Q4 GDP reading sent mainland and HK stocks higher, but failed to lift stocks in the rest of Asia: - CSI 300 (+1.20%) - Shanghai Composite (+0.91%) - Hang Seng (+0.65%) - Nikkei 225 (-1.01%) - ASX 200 (-0.78%) - Straits Times (-0.80%)
  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in Ripple are long at 100.00%, while traders in NZD/USD are at opposite extremes with 68.27%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX: https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment https://t.co/dNtaWoHOAB
  • Forex Update: As of 05:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: 🇯🇵JPY: 0.15% 🇪🇺EUR: -0.04% 🇨🇭CHF: -0.04% 🇬🇧GBP: -0.16% 🇦🇺AUD: -0.23% 🇨🇦CAD: -0.33% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#currencies https://t.co/FXFxoaAZph
  • Indices Update: As of 05:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: FTSE 100: -0.12% Wall Street: -0.16% France 40: -0.17% US 500: -0.24% Germany 30: -0.30% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#indices https://t.co/XHqhYhvlBt
  • Gold prices fell as much as 1.2% before paring most losses on Monday. A stronger USD and fading stimulus hopes were among the primary weighing factors. Traders are eyeing US$ 1,807 for near-term support. https://t.co/C3rJwjtzxk
  • US Dollar Bottoming? Smaller Fiscal Stimulus, Earnings, Covid Threaten ASEAN FX https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/fundamental/article/special_report/2021/01/18/US-Dollar-Bottoming-Smaller-Fiscal-Stimulus-Earnings-Covid-Threaten-ASEAN-FX.html?CHID=9&QPID=917702&utm_source=Twitter&utm_medium=Dubrovsky&utm_campaign=twr https://t.co/gXQFhAXxvp
EUR/USD Risks Larger Pullback as U. of Michigan Confidence Rebounds

EUR/USD Risks Larger Pullback as U. of Michigan Confidence Rebounds

2014-04-11 08:00:00
David Song, Gregory Marks,
EUR/USD Risks Pullback U of Michigan Confidence Rebounds

- U. of Michigan Confidence to Improve for Second Time in 2014.

- Household Sentiment Survey Has Held Above 80.0 Since November.

Trading the News: U. of Michigan Confidence

A rebound in the U. of Michigan Confidence survey may spur a larger pullback in the EUR/USD as it raises the outlook for the U.S. economy.

What’s Expected:

EUR-USD-Risks-Larger-Pullback-U-of-Michigan-Confidence-Rebounds-0214_body_ScreenShot061.png, EUR/USD Risks Larger Pullback as U. of Michigan Confidence ReboundsEUR/USD Confidence

Click Here for the DailyFX Calendar

Why Is This Event Important:

Indeed, positive developments coming out of the world’s largest economy may put increased pressure on the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) to normalize monetary policy sooner rather than later, but it seems as though Fed Chair Janet Yellen remains reluctant to move away from the zero-interest rate policy as the central bank head continues to highlight the ongoing slack in the real economy.

Expectations: Bullish Argument/Scenario

Release

Expected

Actual

Consumer Credit (FEB)

$14.000B

$16.489B

Durable Goods Orders (FEB)

0.8%

2.2%

Advance Retail Sales (MoM) (FEB)

0.2%

0.3%

The resilience in private sector consumption along with the pickup in consumer credit may generate a meaningful rebound in household sentiment, and an upbeat print may generate a bullish reaction in the USD as it limits the Fed’s scope to retain its highly accommodative policy stance for an extended period of time.

Risk: Bearish Argument/Scenario

Release

Expected

Actual

Non-Farm Payrolls (MAR)

200K

192K

Average Hourly Earnings (YoY) (MAR)

2.3%

2.1%

Pending Home Sales (MoM) (FEB)

0.2%

-0.8%

However, subdued wage growth paired with the persistent slack in the real economy may spark a further downturn in consumer confidence, and a dismal development may heighten the bearish sentiment surrounding the greenback as the FOMC retains a rather cautious outlook for the region.

Join DailyFX on Demand for Full Coverage of the U. of Michigan Confidence Survey

How To Trade This Event Risk(Video)

Bullish USD Trade: Household Sentiment Rises to 81.0 or Higher

  • Need to see red, five-minute candle following the release to consider a short trade on EUR/USD
  • If market reaction favors a long dollar trade, sell EUR/USD with two separate position
  • Set stop at the near-by swing high/reasonable distance from entry; look for at least 1:1 risk-to-reward
  • Move stop to entry on remaining position once initial target is hit; set reasonable limit

Bearish USD Trade: Consumer Confidence Survey Disappoints

  • Need green, five-minute candle to favor a long EUR/USD trade
  • Implement same setup as the bullish dollar trade, just in the opposite direction

Potential Price Targets For The Release

EUR/USD Daily

EUR/USD Daily Chart

Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

  • Outlook Remains Bullish After Carving Higher Low around 1.3650-60
  • Break of Bearish Trend Favors Topside Targets as RSI Preserves Long-Term Upward Momentum
  • Interim Resistance: 1.3960-70 (61.8% expansion)
  • Interim Support: 1.3650 (78.6 expansion) to 1.3660 (23.6 retracement)

Impact that the U. of Michigan Confidence has had on EUR/USD during the last release

Period

Data Released

Estimate

Actual

Pips Change

(1 Hour post event )

Pips Change

(End of Day post event)

MAR P

2014

03/14/2014 13:55 GMT

82.0

79.9

+10

+3

March 2014 U. of Michigan Confidence Survey

EUR/USD Chart

The University of Michigan Confidence survey missed estimates last month to come in at 79.0 vs. 82.0 as surveyed by economists. The figure has been on the general decline since hitting a high over summer not seen since 2007. February’s reading led to a slight uptick in the EUR/USD, but small move did not hold into the close.

--- Written by David Song, Currency Analyst and Gregory Marks

To contact David, e-mail dsong@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong.

To be added to David's e-mail distribution list, please follow this link.

Trade Alongsidethe DailyFX Team on DailyFX on Demand

Looking to use the DailyFX Trade Signals LIVE? Check out Mirror Trader.

New to FX? Watch this Video

Join us to discuss the outlook for the major currencies on the DailyFXForums

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES