News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.



Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events


Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

Free Trading Guides
Please try again
Oil - US Crude
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Wall Street
More View more
Real Time News
  • What's the difference between leading and lagging indicators? Find out from here:
  • Struggling to define key levels? Floor-Trader Pivots assist traders in identifying areas in a chart where price is likely to approach and can be used to set appropriate targets, while effectively managing risk. Learn how to use this indicator here:
  • Make smart trading decisions with your free guide to trade the news. Download your free guide here. #DailyFXGuides
  • Currency exchange rates are impacted by several factors. Are different world leaders a contributing factor? Find out here:
  • Gold snapped a two-week losing streak but keeps price within the broader August downtrend. These are the levels that matter on the $XAUUSD weekly chart. Get your market update from @MBForex here:
  • $GBPUSD continues to move higher, despite Friday’s weakness, as vaccination hopes continue to fuel positive sentiment despite ongoing lockdown fears and downbeat UK data. Get your market update from @nickcawley1 here:
  • Risk management is one of the most important aspects of successful trading, but is often overlooked. What are some basic principles or risk management? Find out from @PaulRobinsonFX here:
  • Recessions can devastate the economy and disrupt the fortunes of individuals, businesses, and investors. But economic decline in the business cycle is inevitable, and your trading can be defined by how you respond to crisis. learn how to prepare here:
  • Looking for a new way to trade reversals? One of the most used reversal candle patterns is known as the Harami. Like most candlestick formation patterns, the Harami tells a story about sentiment in the market. Get better with trading reversals here:
  • MACD who? The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is a technical indicator which simply measures the relationship of exponential moving averages (EMA). Find out how you can incorporate MACD into your trading strategy here:
EUR/USD at Risk for Fresh Lows as Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) Climb 200K

EUR/USD at Risk for Fresh Lows as Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) Climb 200K

David Song, Gregory Marks,
EUR/USD Unemployment Figures

- U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) to Increase 200K; Unemployment Rate to Slip to 6.6%.

- February NFP Exceeded Market Expectations for First Time in Three-Months.

Trading the News: U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls

The U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report may in still a bullish outlook for the dollar (bearish EUR/USD) as employment is expected to increase another 200K in March, while the jobless rate is anticipated to narrow to an annualized 6.6% from 6.7%.

What’s Expected:

EUR-USD-Risk-for-Fresh-Lows-nfp-0206_body_ScreenShot029.png, EUR/USD at Risk for Fresh Lows as Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) Climb 200KEUR/USD Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP)

Why Is This Event Important:

Indeed, a material pickup in job growth may put increased pressure on the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) to normalize monetary policy sooner rather than later, but the reserve currency may struggle to hold its ground should the NFP report dampen the outlook for growth and inflation.

Expectations: Bullish Argument/Scenario




Challenger Job Cuts (YoY) (MAR)



Durable Goods Orders (FEB)



Advance Retail Sales (MoM) (FEB)



The resilience in private sector consumption along with the ongoing decline in planned job cuts may generate a positive employment report, and a large uptick in job growth may highlight an improved forecast for the USD as the Fed continues to see a stronger recovery in 2014.

Risk: Bearish Argument/Scenario




ADP Employment Change (MAR)



ISM Manufacturing- Employment (MAR)



NFIB Small Business Optimism (FEB)



Nevertheless, the persistent slack in the real economy paired with the downtick in business confidence may drag on NFPs, and a dismal print may trigger a sharp selloff in the greenback as it weighs on interest rate expectations.

How To Trade This Event Risk(Video)

Join DailyFX on Demand for Full Coverage of U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls

Bullish USD Trade: NFP Climb 200K+; Unemployment Slips to 6.6%

  • Need to see red, five-minute candle following the NFP print to consider a short trade on EUR/USD
  • If market reaction favors a long dollar trade, sell EUR/USD with two separate position
  • Set stop at the near-by swing high/reasonable distance from entry; look for at least 1:1 risk-to-reward
  • Move stop to entry on remaining position once initial target is hit; set reasonable limit

Bearish USD Trade: March Employment Disappoints

  • Need green, five-minute candle to favor a long EUR/USD trade
  • Implement same setup as the bullish dollar trade, just in the opposite direction

Potential Price Targets For The Release


EUR/USD Daily Chart

Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

  • Risks Larger Correction After Failed Attempts to Close Above 1.3800
  • Relative Strength Index Carving Bearish Trend
  • Interim Resistance: 1.3960-70 (61.8 expansion)
  • Interim Support: 1.3650 (78.6% expansion) to 1.3660 (61.8 retracement)

Impact that the U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls report has had on EUR/USD during the last month


Data Released



Pips Change

(1 Hour post event )

Pips Change

(End of Day post event)

FEB 2014

3/07/2013 13:30 GMT





U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) February 2014


At the February release of the US Non-Farm Payroll Change we saw USDollar gain against the Euro as the print came in 26K higher than economist estimates and the January print was revised upwards to 129K from 113K prior. Current surveys point to another better than expected print with estimates at 200K for March. We did see a slight miss for the ADP figure on Wednesday, although it is not uncommon to see the NFP figure beat or miss with a larger range. If the print misses expectations, it will be difficult to place blame on the weather once more as has been the case since December.

--- Written by David Song, Currency Analyst and Gregory Marks

To contact David, e-mail Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong.

To be added to David's e-mail distribution list, please follow this link.

Trade Alongsidethe DailyFX Team on DailyFX on Demand

Looking to use the DailyFX Trade Signals LIVE? Check out Mirror Trader.

New to FX? Watch this Video

Join us to discuss the outlook for the major currencies on the DailyFXForums

Visit our EUR/USD page for more Euro Dollar news

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.