We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

Free Trading Guides
Oil - US Crude
Wall Street
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
More View more
Real Time News
  • Major investment bank models have touted USD selling, given the outperformance in US equities relative to its counterparts over the past month. How is this likely to impact the month-end rebalancing? Find out from @JMcQueenFX here:https://t.co/MtNrHmXZpD https://t.co/YvoHlUsdVr
  • U.S. Market Analyst at https://t.co/JsVsSmefgR, Shain Vernier covers - ✔️ Safe haven assets in volatile markets ✔️ Central banks and governments ✔️ How will commodities trade in a recession Only on Trading Global Markets Decoded #podcast. Tune in here: https://t.co/1UmEzEbwiy https://t.co/X15k6b4ZyB
  • The month of May saw equities rise across the board. The #Dow Jones and #DAX 30 will look to hold above nearby support while the #Nasdaq 100 may look to attack all-time highs. Get your #equities market update from @PeterHanksFX here: https://t.co/dQxkG68R0I https://t.co/cgfcOs14qG
  • There is a dramatic departure between yield curve pricing for a recession and other measures of near-term growth; the Q2’20 Atlanta Fed GDPNow is extremely alarming.Get your market update from @CVecchioFX here: https://t.co/eMd3T8EwDO https://t.co/56oUP6we9U
  • The #DAX has now closed the gap from the beginning of March with the index breaking above 61.8% fib at 11592. Get your DAX market update from @JMcQueenFX here: https://t.co/wr67nkxc8z https://t.co/CkxPZn1v3t
  • Emerging market currencies haven’t been treated equally by the effects of global contagion, even if most have suffered to some degree. However withdrawal of investment flows could hit them all. Get your market update from @DavidCottleFX here:https://t.co/QzNoNYgMgP https://t.co/9CV6iZt40j
  • My weekend trading video: 'S&P 500 Rises on Trump China Presser, #NFPs and Rate Decisions Ahead' https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/video/daily_news_report/2020/05/30/SP-500-Rises-on-Trump-China-Presser-NFPs-and-Rate-Decisions-Ahead.html?ref-author=Kicklighter&QPID=917719&CHID=9 https://t.co/ZvoGoibzj1
  • Hopes are high for deeper European economic integration as the continent battles back from the coronavirus slowdowns – but will it hold? What impact can this have on #Euro? Find out from @JStanleyFX here: https://t.co/b9ZWRd4cTr https://t.co/gngm5tKqjz
  • The US Dollar could rise against #ASEAN currencies such as the Singapore Dollar as US-China tensions seem to escalate. The Indian Rupee is also looking ahead of local 1Q GDP data.Get your market update from @ddubrovskyFX here:https://t.co/LkEFJViPWY https://t.co/iL7xlHLBiF
  • #Gold has a short-term bullish set-up that may play nicely with USD weakening. The longer and shorter-term path of least resistance remains higher. Get your $XAUUSD technical analysis from @PaulRobinsonFX here:https://t.co/6gt3F9LuGP https://t.co/B4MVrg8f6i
Bullish EUR/USD Trend at Risk on Dovish ECB- 1.3500 Remains Key

Bullish EUR/USD Trend at Risk on Dovish ECB- 1.3500 Remains Key

2014-04-03 07:00:00
David Song, Gregory Marks,

- European Central Bank (ECB)to Hold Benchmark Interest Rate at 0.25%.

- ECB President Mario Draghi to Deliver Policy Statement at 12:30 GMT.

Trading the News: European Central Bank Interest Rate Decision

According to a Bloomberg News survey, 54 of the 57 economists polled see the European Central Bank (ECB) sticking to the sidelines in April, but the market speculation (rate cut, negative deposit rates, verbal intervention, unsterilized bond purchases, Long-Term Refinancing Operation) surrounding the interest rate decision may spark increased volatility in the EUR/USD as market participants weigh the outlook for monetary policy.

What’s Expected:

Bullish-EUR-USD-Trend-at-Risk-on-Dovish-ECB--1.3500-Remains-Key-0203_body_ScreenShot025.png, Bullish EUR/USD Trend at Risk on Dovish ECB- 1.3500 Remains KeyEUR/USD ECB Economic Event

Click Here for the DailyFX Calendar

Why Is This Event Important:

The EUR/USD may push higher over the remainder of the week should the ECB merely reiterate the policy statement from the March 6 meeting, but the single currency may continue to give back the rally from earlier this year should central bank President Mario Draghi lay the groundwork to implement more non-standard measures across the monetary union.

Expectations: Bearish Argument/Scenario




Euro-Zone Producer Price Index (YoY) (FEB)



Euro-Zone Consumer Price Index Estimate (YoY) (MAR)



Euro-Zone Industrial Production s.a. (MoM) (JAN)



Indeed, the heightening risk for deflation may put increased pressure on the ECB to further embark on its easing cycle, and the EUR may face a larger decline in the coming days should the central bank take additional steps to shore up the ailing economy.

Risk: Bullish Argument/Scenario




Euro-Zone Unemployment Rate (FEB)



Euro-Zone Economic Confidence (MAR)



Euro-Zone Retail Sales (MoM) (JAN)



However, President Mario Draghi may retain a rather neutral tone for monetary policy amid the positive developments coming out of the euro-area, and the EURUSD may continue to carve a series of higher highs & higher lows as the central bank remains reluctant to move away from its current policy.

How To Trade This Event Risk(Video)

*Trading the ECB interest rate decision may not be as clear cut as some of our other trade setups as the press conference with President Draghi ends with a Q&A session

DailyFX on Demand Will Have Full Coverage of the ECB Meeting

Bearish EUR Trade: ECB Implements More Easing/Draghi Adopts Dovish Tone

  • Need red, five-minute candle following the decision/statement to consider a short Euro trade
  • If market reaction favors a short trade, sell EUR/USD with two separate position
  • Set stop at the near-by swing high/reasonable distance from cost; at least 1:1 risk-to-reward
  • Move stop to entry on remaining position once initial target is met, set reasonable limit

Bullish EUR Trade: Governing Council Retains Neutral Outlook

  • Need green, five-minute candle to favor a long EUR/USD trade
  • Implement same strategy as the bearish euro trade, just in the opposite direction

Potential Price Targets For The Rate Decision


EUR/USD Daily Chart

Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

  • Looking for Higher Low, But Break Below 1.3500 Would Negative Bullish Trend
  • Interim Resistance: 1.3960-70 (61.8 expansion)
  • Interim Support: 1.3600 Pivot to 1.3620 (23.6 retracement)

Impact that the European Central Bank Interest Rate Decision has had on EUR during the last meeting


Data Released



Pips Change

(1 Hour post event )

Pips Change

(End of Day post event)

MAR 2014

03/06/2014 12:45 GMT





European Central Bank (ECB) March 2014 Interest Rate Decision

ECB EUR/USD Interest Rate Chart

At last month’s European Central Bank Rate Decision and Draghi presser we saw the central bank release updated forecasts for 2015 and 2014 as well as new forecasts for a myriad of figures for 2016. Although a nod from German courts for OMT actions from the central bank had led some to believe some sort of action would be taken, the fact that this did not occur and the fact that Mr. Draghi remained upbeat sent the Euro to highs near the 1.40 mark over the following few days. As for insight into this meeting, recent inflation figures out of the EU have remained subdued and these challenges may push the central bank to take some sort of action whether it be verbal intervention to weaken the Euro or a move to lower the overnight rate by 10-15bps. Any actions of greater significance may be unlikely due to the complexities of any ‘QE’ style move from the central bank.

--- Written by David Song, Currency Analyst and Gregory Marks

To contact David, e-mail dsong@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong.

To be added to David's e-mail distribution list, please follow this link.

Trade Alongsidethe DailyFX Team on DailyFX on Demand

Looking to use the DailyFX Trade Signals LIVE? Check out Mirror Trader.

New to FX? Watch this Video

Join us to discuss the outlook for the major currencies on the DailyFXForums

Read more EUR/USD news

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.


News & Analysis at your fingertips.