News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
EUR/USD
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Oil - US Crude
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Wall Street
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Gold
Bearish
GBP/USD
Mixed
USD/JPY
Bearish
More View more
Real Time News
  • Forex sentiment analysis can be a useful tool to help traders understand and act on price behavior. Learn how to get the most out of understanding trader sentiment here: https://t.co/rJznrXkcYz https://t.co/FPgZ5gkgrM
  • Key levels in forex tend to draw attention to traders in the market. These are psychological prices which tie into the human psyche and way of thinking. Learn about psychological levels here: https://t.co/8A1QhwMVKo https://t.co/E0KhcKHrOf
  • For some reason an old story has popped up - many apologies.... https://t.co/jHjQxyFRXM
  • The US dollar is unloved, oversold and at lows last seen over 30-months ago. At the moment there seems to be very little reason to buy the greenback. Get your $USD market update from @nickcawley1 here:https://t.co/VY3SLs35cp https://t.co/w5ljByv9cf
  • Trading Forex is not a shortcut to instant wealth, excessive leverage can magnify losses, and sentiment is a powerful indicator. Learn about these principles in depth here: https://t.co/lZFM8youtX https://t.co/CpqePQYF4E
  • GDP (Gross Domestic Product) economic data is deemed highly significant in the forex market. GDP figures are used as an indicator by fundamentalists to gauge the overall health and potential growth of a country. Learn use GDP data to your advantage here: https://t.co/Yl9vM7kO6a https://t.co/Rg2YGZCUCr
  • The non-farm payroll (NFP) figure is a key economic indicator for the United States economy. It is also referred to as the monthly market mover. Find out why it has been given this nickname here: https://t.co/yOUVEEqhc5 https://t.co/ftrbRkFiJF
  • Human error in the forex market is common and often leads to familiar trading mistakes. These trading mistakes crop up particularly with novice traders on a regular basis. Learn about the top ten trading mistakes and how you can avoid them here: https://t.co/i8E2AXtzF3 https://t.co/Hny2HMYo4I
  • (Weekly Fundamental) Australian Dollar Outlook: Tied to Biden Stimulus Bets, S&P 500, US Dollar, Treasuries $AUDUSD #SP500 #stimulusbill #USD https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/fundamental/forecast/weekly/aud/2021/01/16/Australian-Dollar-Outlook-Tied-to-Biden-Stimulus-Bets-SP-500-US-Dollar-Treasuries.html?CHID=9&QPID=917702&utm_source=Twitter&utm_medium=Dubrovsky&utm_campaign=twr https://t.co/H7aus0Aljt
  • The inside bar pattern occurs regularly within financial markets. Incorporating the inside bar strategy can enhance a trader's market analysis. Find out how more here: https://t.co/E3EWOYTYNw https://t.co/7zI3p6UNVs
EURUSD May Hold March Open Range as U.S. Retail Sales Rebound

EURUSD May Hold March Open Range as U.S. Retail Sales Rebound

2014-03-13 07:00:00
David Song, Gregory Marks,

- U.S. Retail Sales to Increase for First Time in Three-Months

- Household Spending Rose 10 Months in 2013

Trading the News: U.S. Advance Retail Sales

A rebound in U.S. Retail Sales may generate a meaningful rebound in the dollar as it raises the prospects for a stronger recovery in the world’s largest economy.

What’s Expected:

Time of release: 03/13/2014 12:30 GMT, 8:30 EDT

Primary Pair Impact: EURUSD

Expected: 0.2%

Previous: -0.4%

DailyFX Forecast: -0.2% to 0.4%

Why Is This Event Important:

With the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) widely expected to discuss another $10B taper at the March 19 meeting, a pickup in private sector consumption may put increased pressure on the central bank to normalize monetary policy sooner rather than later, but we may see Fed Chair Janet Yellen preserve the zero-interest rate policy (ZIRP) for an extended period of time in an effort to curtail the ongoing slack in the real economy.

Expectations: Bullish Argument/Scenario

Release

Expected

Actual

Change in Non-Farm Payrolls (FEB)

149K

175K

Average Hourly Earnings (YoY) (FEB)

2.0%

2.2%

Personal Income (JAN)

0.2%

0.3%

Faster wage growth along with uptick in employment may generate a large pickup in household spending, and a positive development should encourage a more meaningful advance in the dollar as it raises the outlook for growth and inflation.

Risk: Bearish Argument/Scenario

Release

Expected

Actual

Consumer Credit (JAN)

$14.000B

$13.698B

Consumer Confidence (FEB)

80.0

78.1

Consumer Price Index (YoY) (JAN)

1.6%

1.6%

However, retail spending may fall short of market expectations amid rising prices paired with the slowdown in private sector credit, and a dismal sales report may spur a further decline in the greenback as it drags on interest rate expectations.

How To Trade This Event Risk(Video)

Join DailyFX on Demand for Full Coverage of the U.S. Retail Sales Report

Bullish USD Trade: Household Spending Increases 0.2% or Greater

  • Need to see red, five-minute candle following the release to consider a short trade on EURUSD
  • If market reaction favors a long dollar trade, sell EURUSD with two separate position
  • Set stop at the near-by swing high/reasonable distance from entry; look for at least 1:1 risk-to-reward
  • Move stop to entry on remaining position once initial target is hit; set reasonable limit

Bearish USD Trade: Retail Sales Disappoints

  • Need green, five-minute candle to favor a long EURUSD trade
  • Implement same setup as the bullish dollar trade, just in the opposite direction

Potential Price Targets For The Release

EURUSD Daily

Forex_EURUSD_May_Hold_March_Open_Range_as_U.S._Retail_Sales_Rebound_body_Picture_2.png, EURUSD May Hold March Open Range as U.S. Retail Sales Rebound

Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

  • Remains Upward Trending Channel While Preserving March Opening Range (1.3914)
  • Bullish RSI Momentum Continues to Favor Further Advances
  • Interim Resistance: 1.3800 (100.0% expansion) to 1.3830 (61.8% retracement)
  • Interim Support: 1.3450 (38.2% retracement) to 1.3460 (50.0% expansion)

Impact that the U.S. Retail Sales Report has had on EUR/USD during the last release

Period

Data Released

Estimate

Actual

Pips Change

(1 Hour post event )

Pips Change

(End of Day post event)

JAN 2014

02/13/2014 13:30 GMT

0.0%

-0.4%

Flat

+7

January 2014 U.S. Retail Sales

Forex_EURUSD_May_Hold_March_Open_Range_as_U.S._Retail_Sales_Rebound_body_Picture_1.png, EURUSD May Hold March Open Range as U.S. Retail Sales Rebound

Volatility across the board was muted at the last Retail Sales report even though the headline figure missed market expectations by four tenths of a percent. EURUSD had seen some strength earlier in the day on account of German CPI meeting estimates of -0.6% MoM. As for this print, it is likely this is the last figure analysts can continue to blame on poor weather conditions in the northeast. Note that the headline figure may be dragged lower following recent reports out of automakers regarding poor sales as of late.

--- Written by David Song, Currency Analyst and Gregory Marks

To contact David, e-mail dsong@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong.

To be added to David's e-mail distribution list, please follow this link.

Trade Alongsidethe DailyFX Team on DailyFX on Demand

Looking to use the DailyFX Trade Signals LIVE? Check out Mirror Trader.

New to FX? Watch this Video

Join us to discuss the outlook for the major currencies on the DailyFXForums

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES