News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.



Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events


Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

Free Trading Guides
Oil - US Crude
Wall Street
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
More View more
Real Time News
  • The #Dollar has bottoming potential, but that is starting to lose weight as it fails to sustain any lift; next week could be a big one for #USD’s near-term outlook. Get your #currencies update from @PaulRobinsonFX here:
  • Emotions are often a key driving force behind #FOMO. If left unchecked, they can lead traders to neglect trading plans and exceed comfortable levels of risk. Read on and get your emotions in check here:
  • I’d like to thank my followers, I just reached 5,000 which is quite a milestone for someone that isn’t a huge fan of the platform. Thank you all very much ❤️
  • Technology stocks continue to be a source of weakness for US equities, undermining risk appetite. Meanwhile, US-China tensions simmer beneath the surface creating uncertainty. Get your #equities update from @PeterHanksFX here:
  • There are many different types of forex orders, which traders use to manage their trades. While these may vary between different brokers, there tends to be several basic FX order types all brokers accept. Learn about different FX order types here:
  • Did you know a Doji candlestick signals market indecision and the potential for a change in direction. What are the top five types of Doji candlesticks? Find out:
  • #Oil prices saw a reprieve to the recent selling pressure but remain at risk while below downtrend resistance. Here are the levels that matter on the #WTI technical chart. Get your #commodities update from @MBForex here:
  • Forex liquidity makes it easy for traders to sell and buy currencies without delay, and also creates tight spreads for favorable quotes. Low costs and large scope to various markets make it the most frequently traded market in the world. Learn more here:
  • The growth-linked New Zealand Dollar may rise on the upcoming #RBNZ rate decision following rosy economic data. However, downside potential in the S&P 500 could offset $NZDUSD gains. Get your #currencies update from @ddubrovskyFX here:
  • It was a quiet week in Aussie as $AUDUSD put in its second consecutive week of indecision. But taking a more granular look highlights the potential for a reversal scenario. Get your #currencies update from @JStanleyFX here:
NZD/USD to Breakout Should RBNZ Favor Series of Rate Hikes

NZD/USD to Breakout Should RBNZ Favor Series of Rate Hikes

2014-03-12 16:00:00
David Song, Gregory Marks,

- Reserve Bank of New Zealand to Raise Rates for First Time Since 2010

- Markets Pricing 98% Chance for 25bp Rate Hike According to OIS

Trading the News: Reserve Bank of New Zealand Interest Rate Decision

According to a Bloomberg News survey, all of the 15 economists polled see the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) raising the benchmark interest rate by 25bp in March, and the central bank may look to normalize monetary policy throughout 2014 as the pickup in economic activity raises the outlook for growth and inflation.

What’s Expected:

Time of release: 03/12/2014 20:00 GMT, 16:00 EDT

Primary Pair Impact: NZD/USD

Expected: 2.75%

Previous: 2.50%

DailyFX Forecast: 2.75%

Why Is This Event Important:

Indeed, RBNZ Governor Graeme Wheeler may sound a more hawkish this time around amid the ongoing threat of an asset-bubble, and interest rate decision may spur fresh highs in the New Zealand dollar should the central bank show a greater willingness to implement a series of rate hike over the coming months.

Expectations: Bullish Argument/Scenario




Trade Balance (JAN)



Employment Change (QoQ) (4Q)



Private Wages ex Overtime (QoQ) (4Q)



With that said, the RBNZ may lay out a more detailed exit strategy in light of the pickup in global trade along with the ongoing improvement in the labor market, and a material shift in the policy outlook should prop-up the higher-yielding currency as the central bank moves away from its easing cycle.

Risk: Bearish Argument/Scenario




Building Permits (MoM) (JAN)



ANZ Consumer Confidence (MoM) (FEB)



Retail Sales ex Inflation (QoQ) (4Q)



Nevertheless, the RBNZ may stick to its current policy amid the threats surrounding the Emerging Market (EM) economies, and the kiwi may give back the advance carried over from the previous month should the central bank defy market expectations and keep borrowing costs on hold.

How To Trade This Event Risk(Video)

Bullish NZD Trade: RBNZ Raises Rates & Pledges to Normalize Further in 2014

  • Need green, five-minute candle following a hawkish statement to consider a long NZDUSD trade
  • If market reaction favors a long trade, buy NZDUSD with two separate position
  • Set stop at the near-by swing low/reasonable distance from cost; look for at least 1:1 risk-to-reward
  • Move stop to entry on remaining position once initial target is met, set reasonable limit

Bearish NZD Trade: Governor Wheeler Disappoints & Preserves Current Policy

  • Need red, five-minute candle to favor a short NZD/USD trade
  • Implement same strategy as the bullish New Zealand dollar trade, just in opposite direction

Potential Price Targets For The Rate Decision



Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

  • Stuck in Wedge/Triangle Formation From 2011; Bullish Breakout on Tap?
  • Relative Strength Index Preserves Bearish Trend Dating Back to November
  • Interim resistance: 0.8540-50 (50.0% expansion)
  • Interim support: 0.8220 (38.2% retracement) to 0.8230 (38.2% retracement)

Impact that the RBNZ Interest Rate Decision has had on NZD during the last meeting


Data Released



Pips Change

(1 Hour post event )

Pips Change

(End of Day post event)

Jan 2014

01/29/2014 20:00 GMT





January 2014 Reserve Bank of New Zealand Interest Rate Decision

RNNZ - Reserve Bank of New Zealand Interest Rate Decision

As the RBNZ left rates at 2.50% at the January meeting amid speculation of a hike, the NZD/USD pair fell 52 pips to the downside within the hour and went on to suffer losses below the 81 level in the following days. Since then we have seen a resumption of the uptrend and nearing the rate decision markets are pricing in a 25bps hike. It is important to note that just because rate hikes traditionally can trigger strength in a currency, the fact that markets have largely priced in these developments may adversely impact the NZD/USD if we only see a 25bps hike.

--- Written by David Song, Currency Analyst and Gregory Marks

To contact David, e-mail Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong.

To be added to David's e-mail distribution list, please follow this link.

Trade Alongsidethe DailyFX Team on DailyFX on Demand

Looking to use the DailyFX Trade Signals LIVE? Check out Mirror Trader.

New to FX? Watch this Video

Join us to discuss the outlook for the major currencies on the DailyFXForums

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.