News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
EUR/USD
Bearish
Oil - US Crude
Mixed
Wall Street
Mixed
Gold
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
GBP/USD
Bearish
USD/JPY
Bullish
More View more
Real Time News
  • An economic calendar is a resource that allows traders to learn about important economic information scheduled to be released. Stay up to date on the most important global economic data here: https://t.co/JdvW6HNuqV https://t.co/AiLoS7DrEQ
  • Many people are attracted to forex trading due to the amount of leverage that brokers provide. Leverage allows traders to gain more exposure in financial markets than what they are required to pay for. Learn about FX leverage here: https://t.co/3Wked6GBOp https://t.co/HicBmGrokK
  • There is a great debate about which type of analysis is better for a trader. Is it better to be a fundamental trader or a technical trader? Find out here:https://t.co/7kPzAoNoLG https://t.co/5lbyBJeeA7
  • Entry orders are a valuable tool in forex trading. Traders can strategize to come up with a great trading plan, but if they can’t execute that plan effectively, all their hard work might as well be thrown out. Learn how to place entry orders here: https://t.co/lAFyv1gM0P https://t.co/ubLimoYAcr
  • What is the outlook for financial markets ahead of the first presidential debate and how are Democratic nominee Joe Biden and President Donald Trump doing in the polls? Find out from @ZabelinDimitri here:https://t.co/QQwAZTxZFg https://t.co/4cRhRCiv3C
  • The US Dollar could gain as it forms bullish technical formations against the Singapore Dollar and Malaysian Ringgit. USD/PHP may have bottomed, will USD/IDR rise next? Find out from @ddubrovskyFX here:https://t.co/3UIKmbLIvD https://t.co/PY2YyH4vkQ
  • The Indian Rupee may be at risk to the US Dollar as USD/INR attempts to refocus to the upside. This is as the Nifty 50, India’s benchmark stock index, could fall further. Get your $USDINR market update from @ddubrovskyFX here:https://t.co/3wsYlSxd26 https://t.co/z2qB9p8IgX
  • A proxy of #EmergingMarket capital flows hit its lowest since July, falling with the #SP500 after some divergence This is as #USD gained against its developing FX counterparts, highlighting potential risk of a spillover outwards Stay tuned for next week's #ASEAN fundy outlook! https://t.co/kAvpnb0EXO
  • 4 consecutive down weeks for the #SP500, last matched over a year ago #Fed balance sheet continues to gain very cautiously, now at its highest since the middle of June. Still, at slower pace than last week Focus shifts to US fiscal stimulus next week in the House of Reps https://t.co/f8zpSILm86
  • #Gold prices have broken lower and while the broader technical structure is constructive, the risk remains for a deeper correction before resumption. Get your $XAUUSD technical analysis from @MBForex here: https://t.co/7p3jPx6nQd https://t.co/nnCSdt6OV5
EURUSD Rebound at Risk on Dismal 4Q German GDP Report

EURUSD Rebound at Risk on Dismal 4Q German GDP Report

2014-02-14 03:00:00
David Song, Gregory Marks,
Share:

- German Gross Domestic Product (GDP) to Grow for Three Straight Quarters

- 2Q GDP (0.7%) Marked the Fastest Pace of Growth for 2013

Trading the News: German Gross Domestic Product

Germany’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) figure may undermine the recent rebound in the EURUSD as Europe’s largest economy is expected to grow yet another 0.3% during the last three-months of 2013.

What’s Expected:

Time of release: 02/14/2014 7:00 GMT, 2:00 EST

Primary Pair Impact: EURUSD

Expected: 0.3%

Previous: 0.3%

DailyFX Forecast: 0.1% to 0.3%

Why Is This Event Important:

As mentioned in DailyFX on Demand, a disappointing growth report may put increased pressure on the European Central Bank (ECB) to further embark on its easing cycle amid the threat for disinflation, and the single currency may continue to carve a series of lower highs paired with lower lows amid the protracted recovery in the monetary union.

Expectations: Bearish Argument/Scenario

Release

Expected

Actual

Industrial Production s.a. (MoM) (DEC)

0.3%

-0.6%

Factory Orders (MoM) (DEC)

0.2%

-0.5%

Retail Sales (MoM) (DEC)

0.2%

-2.5%

Slowing outputs along with the ongoing weakness in private sector consumption may show a slowing recovery in Germany, and a dismal GDP print may spark a selloff in the Euro as it raises the ECB scope to further support the ailing economy.

Risk: Bullish Argument/Scenario

Release

Expected

Actual

Unemployment Change (JAN)

-5K

-28K

GfK Consumer Confidence (FEB)

7.6

8.2

IFO Business Climate (JAN)

110.0

110.6

Nevertheless, improved confidence across the euro-area may generate a pickup in the 4Q growth rate, and a positive development may ultimately threaten the bearish EURUSD trend dating back to 2008 as market participants scale back bets for additional monetary stimulus.

How To Trade This Event Risk(Video)

Bearish Euro Trade: German 4Q GDP Misses Market Forecast

  • Need red, five-minute candle following the report to favor a bearish Euro trade
  • If reaction favors short Euro trade, sell EURUSD with two separate position
  • Set stop at the near-by swing high/reasonable distance from entry; need at least 1:1 risk-to-reward
  • Move stop to entry on remaining position once initial target is hit, set reasonable limit

Bullish Euro Trade: Growth Rate Tops 0.3%

  • Need green, five-minute candle to consider a long EURUSD trade
  • Implement same strategy as the bearish Euro trade, just in the opposite direction

Potential Price Targets For The Release

EURUSD Daily

Forex_EURUSD_Rebound_at_Risk_on_Dismal_4Q_German_GDP_Report_body_Picture_2.png, EURUSD Rebound at Risk on Dismal 4Q German GDP Report

Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

  • At Risk for Range-Bound Prices Ahead of ECB March 6 Meeting
  • Relative Strength Index Clears Bearish Trend
  • Interim Resistance: 1.3800 (100.0 expansion) to 1.3830 (61.8 retracement)
  • Interim Support: 1.3450 (38.2% retracement) to 1.3460 (50.0% expansion)

Impact that the German GDP report has had on EUR during the last quarter

Period

Data Released

Estimate

Actual

Pips Change

(1 Hour post event )

Pips Change

(End of Day post event)

3Q F

11/22/2013 7:00 GMT

0.3%

0.3%

+10

+65

3Q 2013 German Gross Domestic Product

Forex_EURUSD_Rebound_at_Risk_on_Dismal_4Q_German_GDP_Report_body_Picture_1.png, EURUSD Rebound at Risk on Dismal 4Q German GDP Report

For the third quarter final print, Germany met preliminary figures of 0.3% QoQ growth and the Euro was left little unchanged against the greenback after a slight spike. More volatility occurred at the 09:00GMT where we saw a large EUR/USD move to the upside. Although German IFO surveys missed expectations, Italian Retail Sales MoM came in far above expectations at the same time release. Note that we may see more volatility after the German GDP once more as we have Italian GDP at 09:00GMT and the Eurozone print at 10:00GMT.

--- Written by David Song, Currency Analyst and Gregory Marks

To contact David, e-mail dsong@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong.

To be added to David's e-mail distribution list, please follow this link.

Trade Alongsidethe DailyFX Team on DailyFX on Demand

Looking to use the DailyFX Trade Signals LIVE? Check out Mirror Trader.

New to FX? Watch this Video

Join us to discuss the outlook for the major currencies on the DailyFXForums

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES