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AUD Correction to Gather Pace on Job Growth- Looking for Lower High

AUD Correction to Gather Pace on Job Growth- Looking for Lower High

David Song, Strategist

- Australia Employment to Increase for Second Month; Jobless Rate to Hold at 5.8%

- Job Growth Exceeded Market Forecast in November, Led by Full-Time Employment (15.5K)

Trading the News: Australia Employment Change

The AUDUSD may face a larger correction over the near-term as the Australian economy is expected to add another 10.0K jobs in December.

What’s Expected:

Time of release: 01/16/20140:30 GMT, 19:30 EST

Primary Pair Impact: AUDUSD

Expected: 10.0K

Previous: 21.0K

DailyFX Forecast: -5.0K to 15.0K

Why Is This Event Important:

Indeed, a further pickup in job growth may present the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) with a greater argument to move away from its easing cycle, and the AUDUSD may face a larger rebound should Governor Glenn Stevens talk down bets for another rate cut.

Expectations: Bullish Argument/Scenario

Release

Expected

Actual

HIA New Home Sales (MoM) (NOV)

--

7.5%

Retail Sales (MoM) (NOV)

0.4%

0.7%

Company Operating Profit (QoQ) (3Q)

1.0%

3.9%

The ongoing expansion in private sector consumption may prompt firms to further expand their labor force, and a larger-than-expected rise in employment may encourage the RBA to soften its dovish rhetoric for monetary policy as growth prospects improve.

Risk: Bearish Argument/Scenario

Release

Expected

Actual

ANZ Job Advertisements (MoM) (DEC)

--

-0.7%

AiG Performance of Services Index (DEC)

--

45.1

AiG Performance of Manufacturing Index (DEC)

--

47.6

However, the persistent slack in business outputs may drag on hiring, and a dismal jobs print may heighten bets for additional monetary support as the region continues to face an uneven recovery.

How To Trade This Event Risk(Video)

Bullish AUD Trade: Australia Adds 10.0K Jobs or More

  • Need green, five-minute candle following the print to consider a long Australian dollar trade
  • If market reaction favors a long trade, buy AUDUSD with two separate position
  • Set stop at the near-by swing low/reasonable distance from entry; look for at least 1:1 risk-to-reward
  • Move stop to entry on remaining position once initial target is hit, set reasonable limit

Bearish AUD Trade: Job Growth Misses Market Expectations

  • Need red, five-minute candle to favor a short AUDUSD trade
  • Implement same setup as the bullish Australian dollar trade, just in opposite direction

Potential Price Targets For The Release

AUDUSD Daily

Forex_AUD_Correction_to_Gather_Pace_on_Job_Growth-_Looking_for_Lower_High_body_Picture_2.png, AUD Correction to Gather Pace on Job Growth- Looking for Lower High

Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

  • Near-Term Correction Remains in Focus; Lower High in Place?
  • RSI Threatening Bullish Trend; Break of Support to Highlight Downside Targets
  • Interim Resistance: 0.9250 (23.6% retracement) to 0.9290 Pivot
  • Interim Support: 0.8800 Pivot to 0.8810 (38.2% expansion)

Impact that the change in Australia Employment has had on AUD during the last month

Period

Data Released

Estimate

Actual

Pips Change

(1 Hour post event )

Pips Change

(End of Day post event)

NOV 2013

12/11/2013 00:30 GMT

10.0K

21.0K

-26

-118

November 2013 Australia Employment Change

Forex_AUD_Correction_to_Gather_Pace_on_Job_Growth-_Looking_for_Lower_High_body_Picture_1.png, AUD Correction to Gather Pace on Job Growth- Looking for Lower High

Employment increased 21.0K in November following an unexpected 0.7% drop the month, while the jobless rate climbed to an annualized 5.8% from 5.7% as discouraged workers returned to the labor force. The market reaction was short-lived as the AUDUSD quickly pulled back from 0.9080, and the higher-yielding currency continued to lose ground throughout the day as the pair closed at 0.8935.

--- Written by David Song, Currency Analyst

To contact David, e-mail dsong@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong.

To be added to David's e-mail distribution list, please follow this link.

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