News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.



Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events


Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

Free Trading Guides
Please try again
Oil - US Crude
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Wall Street
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
More View more
Real Time News
  • Get your snapshot update of the of top level exchanges and key index performance from around the globe here:
  • The pro-risk Australian Dollar may extend gains after the record miss in US jobs data, amplifying dovish rhetoric from the Federal Reserve and keeping the Dow Jones and S&P 500 intact. Get your market update from @ddubrovskyFX here:
  • Who else is keeping close tabs on Dogecoin $DOGE this weekend? All eyes on Elon Musk @elonmusk, the proverbial 'Dogefather,' and his Saturday Night Live @nbcsnl performance kicking off at 11:30PM ET. The #crypto is already looking nice and perky following that trendline break!
  • There is some very interesting event risk over the opening half of this coming week of trade. It starts with Elon Musk hosting SNL tonight for Dogecoin traders and moves into US inflation data to as means to stir the ongoing Fed debate and Dollar
  • It was a big week for Gold bulls and Gold prices broke out to fresh two-month-highs, finally taking-out the 1800 level along the way. Get your market update from @JStanleyFX here:
  • Currency exchange rates are impacted by several factors. Are different world leaders a contributing factor? Find out here:
  • Many people are attracted to forex trading due to the amount of leverage that brokers provide. Leverage allows traders to gain more exposure in financial markets than what they are required to pay for. Learn about FX leverage here:
  • What are some trading takeaways from 2020, as we jump into the new year? Find out with your free guide here: #DailyfxGuides
  • Trading Forex is not a shortcut to instant wealth, excessive leverage can magnify losses, and sentiment is a powerful indicator. Learn about these principles in depth here:
  • The docket thins out over the coming week, but there are a few serious market highlights that can make for some interesting opportunities in the week ahead. $GBPUSD has the technical chops and fundamental confluence (US CPI, UK GDP, etc)
NFP to Steer Fed Guidance- USD Outlook Hinges on Taper Bets

NFP to Steer Fed Guidance- USD Outlook Hinges on Taper Bets

David Song, Gregory Marks,

- U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls to Climb 185K, Unemployment Rate to Narrow to 7.2%

- NFP(OCT) Topped Market Forecast for the First Time in the Last Four Prints

Trading the News: U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls

The U.S. economy is expected to add another 185K jobs in November and a positive development may highlight a bullish outlook for the dollar as it raises the Fed’s scope to taper the asset-purchase program at the December 17-18 meeting.

What’s Expected:

Time of release: 12/06/2013 13:30 GMT, 8:30 EST

Primary Pair Impact: EURUSD

Expected: 185K

Previous: 204K

DailyFX Forecast: 160K to 200K

Why Is This Event Important:

A further improvement in the U.S. labor market may spark a more material shift in the policy outlook as the Fed retains its forward-guidance for monetary policy, and we may see a growing number of central bank officials show a greater willingness to move away from the easing cycle.

Expectations: Bullish Argument/Scenario




Gross Domestic Product (Annualized) (QoQ) (3Q S)



ADP Employment Change (NOV)



Advance Retail Sales (MoM) (OCT)



The resilience in private sector consumption along with the pickup in growth may foster a larger-than-expected rise in NFP, and a positive development may fuel bets for a December taper as Fed officials refrain from undermining the timeline laid out by Chairman Ben Bernanke.

Risk: Bearish Argument/Scenario




ISM Non-Manufacturing (NOV)



Industrial Production (MoM) (OCT)



NFIB Small Business Optimism (OCT)



However, NFPs may disappoint should the slowdown in business outputs drag on hiring, and a dismal employment report may spark a sharp selloff in the USD as it raises the risk of seeing the FOMC carry its highly accommodative policy stance into 2014.

How To Trade This Event Risk(Video)

Join DailyFX on Demand for Full Coverage of U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls

Bullish USD Trade: NFP Increases 185K+; Unemployment Slips to 7.2%

  • Need to see red, five-minute candle following the print to consider a short trade on EURUSD
  • If market reaction favors a long dollar trade, sell EURUSD with two separate position
  • Set stop at the near-by swing high/reasonable distance from entry; look for at least 1:1 risk-to-reward
  • Move stop to entry on remaining position once initial target is hit; set reasonable limit

Bearish USD Trade: November Job Growth Disappoints

  • Need green, five-minute candle to favor a long EURUSD trade
  • Implement same setup as the bullish dollar trade, just in the opposite direction

Potential Price Targets For The Release


Forex_NFP_to_Steer_Fed_Guidance-_USD_Outlook_Hinges_on_Taper_Bets_body_Picture_2.png, NFP to Steer Fed Guidance- USD Outlook Hinges on Taper Bets

Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

  • Clears Interim Resistance; Upward Trending Channel in Focus
  • Bullish Relative Strength Index Points to Further Advances
  • Interim Resistance: 1.3700 Pivot to 1.3716 (78.6 retracement)
  • Interim Support: 1.3490 (50.0 retracement) to 1.3500 (38.2 retracement)

Impact that the U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls report has had on EUR/USD during the last month


Data Released



Pips Change

(1 Hour post event )

Pips Change

(End of Day post event)

OCT 2013

11/08/2013 13:30 GMT





October 2013 U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls

Forex_NFP_to_Steer_Fed_Guidance-_USD_Outlook_Hinges_on_Taper_Bets_body_Picture_1.png, NFP to Steer Fed Guidance- USD Outlook Hinges on Taper Bets

Last month’s NFP print covered the U.S. government shutdown in October and pushed economists to give a dismal 119K estimate. The 204K print ended up coming in at the highest since February and the second highest of 2013. The better than expected reading slammed EUR/USD lower and- after some chop- ended down only 49 pips after an hour. Data out of the U.S. (including employment components in ISM surveys and the ADP Employment Change) has been favorable over the past week, but those expecting a beat must take note of the revised estimate up to 185K. If we do see a beat, expect speculation of a December Fed taper to resume after one incredible week in U.S. data.

--- Written by David Song, Currency Analyst

To contact David, e-mail Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong.

To be added to David's e-mail distribution list, please follow this link.

Trade Alongsidethe DailyFX Team on DailyFX on Demand

Looking to use the DailyFX Trade Signals LIVE? Check out Mirror Trader.

New to FX? Watch this Video

Join us to discuss the outlook for the major currencies on the DailyFXForums

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.