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AUDUSD Eyes September High as Employment Rebounds

AUDUSD Eyes September High as Employment Rebounds

David Song, Strategist

- Australia Employment to Mark First Rise Since June

- AUDUSD Bullish Trend Remains Intact; Key Resistance Ahead

Trading the News: Australia Employment Change

The bullish trend in the AUDUSD may continue to gather pace over the next 24-hours of trading as the Australian economy is expected to add 15.0K jobs in September.

What’s Expected:

Time of release: 10/10/2013 0:30 GMT, 20:30 EDT

Primary Pair Impact: AUDUSD

Expected: 15.0K

Previous: -10.8K

DailyFX Forecast: -10.0K to 15.0K

Why Is This Event Important:

Indeed, a rebound in job growth may encourage the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) to carry its wait-and-see approach into 2014, but the employment report has failed to meet market expectations over the last two prints (July & August) amid the ongoing slack in the $1T economy.

Expectations: Bullish Argument/Scenario




ANZ Job Advertisements (MoM) (SEP)



NAB Business Confidence (SEP)



Retail Sales (MoM) (AUG)



The ongoing improvement in business confidence along with the pickup in private sector consumption may prompt a more meaningful rebound in employment, and a positive print is likely to prop up the aussie as market participants scale back bets for additional RBA rate cuts.

Risk: Bearish Argument/Scenario




Building Approvals (MoM) (AUG)



Trade Balance (AUG)



Company Operating Profits (QoQ) (2Q)



However, the slowdown in global trade paired with the persistent slack in the real economy may continue to generate a weaker-than-expected labor report, and a dismal development may threaten the bullish trend in the AUDUSD as it renews bets for lower borrowing costs.

How To Trade This Event Risk(Video)

Bullish AUD Trade: Employment Rebounds 15.0K or Greater

  • Need green, five-minute candle following the print to consider a long Australian dollar trade
  • If market reaction favors a long trade, buy AUDUSD with two separate position
  • Set stop at the near-by swing low/reasonable distance from entry; look for at least 1:1 risk-to-reward
  • Move stop to entry on remaining position once initial target is hit, set reasonable limit

Bearish AUD Trade: Job Growth Weakens for Third Month

  • Need red, five-minute candle to favor a short AUDUSD trade
  • Implement same setup as the bullish Australian dollar trade, just in opposite direction

Potential Price Targets For The Release


Forex_AUDUSD_Eyes_September_High_as_Employment_Rebounds_body_Picture_2.png, AUDUSD Eyes September High as Employment Rebounds

Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

  • Upward Trending Channel Continues to Take Shape
  • Relative Strength Index Holds Above Support (53)
  • Interim Resistance: 0.9500 (38.2% retracement) to 0.9520 (1.618% expansion)
  • Interim Support: 0.9270 (100.0% expansion) to 0.9290 Pivot

Impact that the change in Australia Employment has had on AUD during the last month


Data Released



Pips Change

(1 Hour post event )

Pips Change

(End of Day post event)

AUG 2013

09/12/2013 1:30 GMT





August 2013 Australia Employment Change

Forex_AUDUSD_Eyes_September_High_as_Employment_Rebounds_body_ScreenShot214.png, AUDUSD Eyes September High as Employment Rebounds

Australia lost another 10.8K jobs in August, with the unemployment rate advancing to 5.8% from 5.7% the month prior, and the ongoing weakness in the labor market may prompt the RBA to further embark on its easing cycle to further insulate the $1T economy. Indeed, the Australian dollar took a spill following the weaker-than-expected print, with the AUDUSD slipping below the 0.9300 handle, and the higher-yielding currency struggled to hold its ground throughout the day as the pair closed at 0.9269.

--- Written by David Song, Currency Analyst

To contact David, e-mail

Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong

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