News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site. See our updated Privacy Policy here.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
Oil - US Crude
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
More View more
Real Time News
  • $Gold is loving some JPow right about now spent a week plus grinding support straight shot back up to resistance around #FOMC $GC was a big spot of support that held for an extended period of time. if this breaks out, strong signal https://t.co/CX4pUXKXsk https://t.co/0rwEYbFKGr
  • Heads Up:🇺🇸 Continuing Jobless Claims (17/JUL) due at 12:30 GMT (15min) Expected: 3196K Previous: 3236K https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2021-07-29
  • Heads Up:🇺🇸 Jobless Claims 4-week Average (JUL/24) due at 12:30 GMT (15min) Previous: 385.25K https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2021-07-29
  • Heads Up:🇺🇸 Initial Jobless Claims (24/JUL) due at 12:30 GMT (15min) Expected: 380K Previous: 419K https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2021-07-29
  • Forex Update: As of 12:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: 🇳🇿NZD: 0.57% 🇨🇦CAD: 0.43% 🇬🇧GBP: 0.39% 🇦🇺AUD: 0.23% 🇨🇭CHF: 0.16% 🇯🇵JPY: 0.07% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#currencies https://t.co/HI4PJp7Aiw
  • Heads Up:🇺🇸 Core PCE Prices QoQ Adv (Q2) due at 12:30 GMT (15min) Expected: 5.9% Previous: 2.5% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2021-07-29
  • Heads Up:🇺🇸 PCE Prices QoQ Adv (Q2) due at 12:30 GMT (15min) Previous: 3.7% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2021-07-29
  • Heads Up:🇺🇸 GDP Price Index QoQ Adv (Q2) due at 12:30 GMT (15min) Expected: 5.4% Previous: 4.3% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2021-07-29
  • Heads Up:🇺🇸 GDP Growth Rate QoQ Adv (Q2) due at 12:30 GMT (15min) Expected: 8.5% Previous: 6.4% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2021-07-29
  • Heads Up:🇨🇦 Average Weekly Earnings YoY (MAY) due at 12:30 GMT (15min) Previous: 1.1% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2021-07-29
GBPUSD Monthly High in View Amid Rebound in U.K. Production

GBPUSD Monthly High in View Amid Rebound in U.K. Production

David Song, Strategist

- U.K. Industrial Production to Rebound in August

- GBPUSD Holds Key Support; Bullish Trend in Focus

Trading the News: U.K. Industrial Production

The British Pound may make a more meaningful run at the 1.6300 handle as U.K. Industrial Production is expected to increase 0.4% in August.

What’s Expected:

Time of release: 10/09/2013 8:30 GMT, 4:30 EDT

Primary Pair Impact: GBPUSD

Expected: 0.4%

Previous: 0.2%

DailyFX Forecast: 0.4% to 0.6%

Why Is This Event Important:

The rebound in business outputs may encourage the Bank of England (BoE) to adopt an improved outlook for the U.K. economy, which could heighten bets of seeing the central bank implement its exit strategy ahead of schedule.

Expectations: Bearish Argument/Scenario

Release

Expected

Actual

Net Consumer Credit (AUG)

0.6B

0.6B

Producer Price Index- Output n.s.a. (YoY) (AUG)

1.8%

1.6%

Purchasing Manager Index- Manufacturing (AUG)

55.0

57.2

The U.K. may see a more meaningful pickup in business outputs on the back of easing input costs, and the shift in the policy outlook may keep the British Pound afloat as the central bank slowly moves away from its easing cycle.

Risk: Bullish Argument/Scenario

Release

Expected

Actual

Retail Sales inc. Auto (MoM) (AUG)

0.4%

-0.9%

Total Business Investments (QoQ) (2Q F)

0.9%

-2.7%

Trade Balance (JUL)

-1.700B

-3.085B

However, the recent slowdown in private sector consumption may limit production over the near-term, and a dismal development may bring a more meaningful correction in the GBPUSD as market participants weigh the outlook for monetary policy.

How To Trade This Event Risk(Video)

Bullish GBP Trade: Industrial Output to Rebound

  • Need green, five-minute candle following the print to consider a long British Pound trade
  • If market reaction favors a long trade, buy GBPUSD with two separate position
  • Set stop at the near-by swing low/reasonable distance from entry; look for at least 1:1 risk-to-reward
  • Move stop to entry on remaining position once initial target is hit, set reasonable limit

Bearish GBP Trade: Data Dampens Outlook for Stronger U.K. Recovery

  • Need red, five-minute candle to favor a short GBPUSD trade
  • Implement same setup as the bullish British Pound trade, just in opposite direction

Potential Price Targets For The Release

GBPUSD Daily

Forex_GBPUSD_Monthly_High_in_View_Amid_Rebound_in_U.K._Production_body_Picture_2.png, GBPUSD Monthly High in View Amid Rebound in U.K. Production

Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

  • Upward Trending Channel Remains Intact; Multi-Year Wedge/Triangle at Risk
  • Relative Strength Index Carving Higher Low?
  • Interim Resistance: 1.6300 Pivot (2012 highs)
  • Interim Support: 1.6000 Pivot

Impact that the U.K. Industrial Production report has had on GBP during the last month

Period

Data Released

Estimate

Actual

Pips Change

(1 Hour post event )

Pips Change

(End of Day post event)

JUL 2013

09/06/2013 8:30 GMT

0.2%

0.0%

-9

+29

July 2013 U.K. Industrial Production

Forex_GBPUSD_Monthly_High_in_View_Amid_Rebound_in_U.K._Production_body_ScreenShot196.png, GBPUSD Monthly High in View Amid Rebound in U.K. Production

Industrial outputs in the U.K. held flat in July after advancing a revised 1.3% the month prior, while manufacturing advanced another 0.2% during the same period. The weaker-than-expected print dragged on the British Pound, with the GBPUSD slipping below the 1.5570 region, but the sterling regained its footing during the day to close at 1.5623.

--- Written by David Song, Currency Analyst

To contact David, e-mail dsong@dailyfx.com

Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong

To be added to David's e-mail distribution list, please follow this link

Trade Key Event Risks with DailyFX on Analyst on Demand

Looking to use the DailyFX Trade Signals LIVE? Check out Mirror Trader

New to FX? Fill Out This Quick Form for a Free Tutorial

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES