We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

Free Trading Guides
Oil - US Crude
Wall Street
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
More View more
Real Time News
  • 🇲🇽 GDP Growth Rate YoY Final Actual: -1.4% Previous: -0.5% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2020-05-26
  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in Ripple are long at 96.64%, while traders in US 500 are at opposite extremes with 75.52%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX: https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment https://t.co/5aSCLBqXc1
  • Heads Up:🇲🇽 Economic Activity YoY due at 11:00 GMT (15min) Expected: -3.5% Previous: -0.6% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2020-05-26
  • Heads Up:🇲🇽 GDP Growth Rate YoY Final due at 11:00 GMT (15min) Previous: -0.5% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2020-05-26
  • Emerging market currencies haven’t been treated equally by the effects of global contagion, even if most have suffered to some degree. However withdrawal of investment flows could hit them all. Get your market update from @DavidCottleFX here:https://t.co/QzNoNYgMgP https://t.co/rIrzpGTgvn
  • Chinese President Xi says will step up preparedness for military combat
  • Commodities Update: As of 10:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Silver: 1.31% Oil - US Crude: 0.90% Gold: -0.22% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#commodities https://t.co/LKcIsCQeTg
  • #DAX30, #dowjones : la reapertura económica lidera los avances #trading https://t.co/GoI9cOuD9A
  • Forex Update: As of 10:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: 🇳🇿NZD: 1.28% 🇦🇺AUD: 1.17% 🇬🇧GBP: 1.01% 🇪🇺EUR: 0.57% 🇨🇭CHF: 0.35% 🇯🇵JPY: 0.04% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#currencies https://t.co/eMQxa6E4eU
  • Coming up at half past the hour: my weekly webinar on market #sentiment. Do join me if you can. You can sign up here: https://www.dailyfx.com/webinars/181540619?ref-author=essex&CHID=9&QPID=917711
Will Another Drop in Consumer Confidence Threaten USD Support?

Will Another Drop in Consumer Confidence Threaten USD Support?

2013-08-27 10:00:00
David Song, Strategist

Trading the News: U.S. Consumer Confidence

U.S. Consumer Confidence is expected to narrow for the second month in August and a marked downturn may produce a spark a selloff in the U.S. dollar as it raises the Fed’s scope to maintain its highly accommodative policy stance over the near to medium-term.

What’s Expected:

Time of release: 08/27/2012 14:00 GMT, 10:00 EDT

Primary Pair Impact: EURUSD

Expected: 79.0

Previous: 80.3

DailyFX Forecast: 78.0 to 82.0

Why Is This Event Important:

Another drop in household confidence may dampens bets of seeing the FOMC taper its $85 asset-purchase program at the September 17-18 meeting, and the central bank continue to delay its exit strategy in an effort to encourage a stronger recovery.

Expectations: Bearish Argument/Scenario




Durable Goods Orders (JUL)



Advance Retail Sales (MoM) (JUL)



Average Hourly Earnings (YoY) (JUL)



The slowdown in private sector consumption could be indicative of a further slowdown in household sentiment, and a dismal print is likely to drag on the USD as it dampens the outlook for growth and inflation.

Risk: Bullish Argument/Scenario




House Price Index (MoM) (JUN)



Existing Home Sales (MoM) (JUL)



Quarterly Gross Domestic Product (Annualized) (2Q A)



Nevertheless, the more broad-based recovery in the housing market may help to prop up consumer confidence, and an unexpected uptick in the Conference Board’s survey may produce a more meaningful rebound in the reserve currency amid the growing discussion at the Fed to scale back on quantitative easing.

How To Trade This Event Risk(Video)

Bearish USD Trade: Consumer Confidence narrows to 79.0 or lower

  • Need green, five-minute candle after the report to consider a long EURUSD trade
  • If the market reaction favors a buy trade, establish long with two position
  • Place stop at the near-by swing low/reasonable distance from entry; need at least 1:1 risk-to-reward
  • Shift stop to entry on remaining position once initial target is met; set reasonable limit

Bullish USD Trade: Sentiment exceeds market forecast

  • Need red, five-minute candle following the release to look at a short EURUSD entry
  • Implement same strategy as the bearish USD trade, just in reverse

Potential Price Targets For The Release

Forex_Will_Another_Drop_in_Consumer_Confidence_Threaten_USD_Support_body_ScreenShot014.png, Will Another Drop in Consumer Confidence Threaten USD Support?
  • Fails to maintain upward trending channel; appears to be carving top
  • Keep an eye on the bearish divergence in the Relative Strength Index
  • Soft resistance/pivot: 1.3450; confluence on Fibonacci retracements at 1.3500
  • Need a close below 61.8% retracement (1.3340) for larger downturn
  • Interim support: 1.3240 (78.6% expansion), 1.3320 (50.0% retracement)

Impact that the U.S. Consumer Confidence survey has had on USD during the last month


Data Released



Pips Change

(1 Hour post event )

Pips Change

(End of Day post event)

JUL 2013

07/30/2013 14:00 GMT





July 2013 U.S. Consumer Confidence

Forex_Will_Another_Drop_in_Consumer_Confidence_Threaten_USD_Support_body_ScreenShot013.png, Will Another Drop in Consumer Confidence Threaten USD Support?

U.S. household sentiment fell back from a five-year high, with the Conference Board’s survey narrowing to 80.3 from a revised 82.1 in June, but the recent weakness is likely to be short-lived as the economic recovery is expected to gradually gather pace in the second-half of the year. Despite the weaker-than-expected print, the initial reaction was short-lived as the headline figure marked the second-highest reading since January 2008, but we saw the greenback consolidate throughout the North American trade as the pair ended the day at 1.3261.

--- Written by David Song, Currency Analyst

To contact David, e-mail dsong@dailyfx.com

Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong

To be added to David's e-mail distribution list, please follow this link.

Trade Key Event Risks with DailyFX on Analyst on Demand

Looking to use the DailyFX Trade Signals LIVE? Check out Mirror Trader

New to FX? Fill Out This Quick Form for a Free Tutorial

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.


News & Analysis at your fingertips.