We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

Free Trading Guides
Oil - US Crude
Wall Street
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
More View more
Real Time News
  • The US Dollar, Euro, British Pound and Australian Dollar will all be at the mercy of political developments in Asia, Europe and North America this week. An avalanche of PMI data will set the backdrop.Get your market update from @ZabelinDimitri here:https://t.co/L8cfAgVx94 https://t.co/vwChirq7SL
  • S&P 500 Forecast: Stocks Face Peril as Day of Reckoning Looms Link: https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/fundamental/article/special_report/2020/06/01/spx-sp500-forecast-stocks-face-peril-as-day-of-reckoning-looms.html $SPX $SPY $ES_F #StockMarket #Investing #Analysis https://t.co/sufK8mMtD4
  • #ASEAN currencies (such as SGD, IDR, PHP and MYR) are relatively outperforming the #USD at a stronger pace than the Indian #Rupee vs the Greenback. This is despite notable gains in the MSCI #EmergingMarkets Index. Full $USDINR, #Nifty piece to come later today! https://t.co/n0SlkfnYOV
  • Seasonal factors, oversupply issues and the outbreak of COVID-19 has seen the price of liquefied #naturalgas (LNG) fall to 22-year lows (1.519), with the situation exacerbated by ‘fuller-than-normal’ storage facilities. Get your market update here:https://t.co/VOqfkBQ4aR https://t.co/9gFVefFC3w
  • ⬇️Asia-Pacific Preview⬇️ - Wall Street buoyancy may spill over into Asia as investors shrug at domestic unrest - AUD and #NZD could rise with APAC stocks despite HK risks - #AUDUSD blew past key resistance and may now challenge multi-week swing-high https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/fundamental/daily_briefing/daily_pieces/asia_am_briefing/2020/06/01/AUD-NZD-May-Rise-With-APAC-Stocks-Ahead-of-RBA-Rate-Decision.html
  • 🇰🇷 GDP Growth Rate YoY Final Actual: 1.4% Previous: 2.3% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2020-06-01
  • 🇰🇷 GDP Growth Rate QoQ Final Actual: -1.3% Previous: 1.3% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2020-06-01
  • 🇳🇿 Building Permits MoM Actual: -6.5% Previous: -21.7% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2020-06-01
  • Trumps says he will deploy military if cities, states won't act. Says he is dispatching 'thousands' of armed soldiers -BBG
  • Trump says he recommended governors deploy National Guard, told them to deploy guard to 'dominate' streets -BBG
AUD at Risk on RBA Minutes- Verbal Intervention on Tap?

AUD at Risk on RBA Minutes- Verbal Intervention on Tap?

2013-08-19 22:00:00
David Song, Strategist

Trading the News: Reserve Bank of Australia Minutes

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Minutes may drag on the AUDUSD should the central bank show a greater willingness to further embark on its easing cycle.

What’s Expected:

Time of release: 08/20/2013 1:30 GMT, 21:30 EDT

Primary Pair Impact: AUDUSD

Expected: --

Previous: --

DailyFX Forecast: --

Why Is This Event Important:

Although there’s speculation that the RBA delivered its last rate cut at the August 6 meeting, Governor Glenn Stevens may continue to strike a cautious outlook for the region amid the slowing recovery, and the central bank head make further attempt to talk down the Australian dollar in an effort to balance the risks surrounding the region.

Bullish Argument/Scenario




Home Loans (MoM) (JUN)



Westpac Consumer Confidence s.a. (MoM) (AUG)



Private Sector Credit (MoM) (JUN)



The RBA may talk down bets for lower borrowing costs amid the rise in private lending, and we will need to see the central bank endorse a neutral policy stance to see a more meaningful rebound in the Australian dollar.

Bearish Argument/Scenario




Employment Change (JUL)



Trade Balance (JUN)



Consumer Price Index (YoY) (2Q)



Nevertheless, Governor Stevens may continue to push for a weaker exchange rate in order to stem the downside risks for growth and inflation, and the bearish sentiment surrounding the higher-yielding currency may gather pace over the near to medium-term should the interest rate outlook deteriorate further.

How To Trade This Event Risk

Should the RBA soften its dovish tone for monetary policy and talk down bets for another rate cut, we will then need to see a green, five-minute candle following the statement to consider a long entry on two-lots of AUDUSD. If the market reaction favor a long aussie-dollar trade, we will set the initial stop at the nearby swing low or a reasonable distance from the entry, and this risk will establish our first target. The second objective will be based on discretion, and we will move the stop on the second lot to cost once the first trade hits its mark in an effort to protect our profits.

On the other hand, the RBA may try to talk down the Australian dollar amid the weakening outlook for growth and inflation, and we will carry out the same setup for a short aussie-dollar trade as the long position mentioned above, just in the opposite direction.

Potential Price Targets For The Release


Forex_AUD_at_Risk_on_RBA_Minutes-_Verbal_Intervention_on_Tap_body_ScreenShot317.png, AUD at Risk on RBA Minutes- Verbal Intervention on Tap?

The AUDUSD appears to be carving a lower high in August as it struggles to hold above the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement around 0.9210-20, and we may see the pair move back below the 0.9000 handle as the RBA favors a weaker currency. However, the RBA may revert back to its wait-and-see approach after pushing the benchmark interest rate to a fresh record-low, and we may see a more meaningful rebound in the exchange rate should the central bank bring its easing cycle to an end.

Impact that the RBA Minutes has had on AUD during the last release


Data Released



Pips Change

(1 Hour post event )

Pips Change

(End of Day post event)

JUL 2012

07/15/2013 1:30 GMT





July 2013 Reserve Bank of Australia Minutes

Forex_AUD_at_Risk_on_RBA_Minutes-_Verbal_Intervention_on_Tap_body_ScreenShot316.png, AUD at Risk on RBA Minutes- Verbal Intervention on Tap?

Although the Reserve Bank of Australia kept the door open for another rate cut, the central bank appeared to have softened its dovish tone for monetary policy as they retain a wait-and-see approach for monetary policy. Easing bets for a rate cut propped up the Australian dollar, with the AUDUSD climbing above the 0.9150 region, and the higher-yielding currency continued to gain ground against its U.S. counterpart as the pair ended the day at 0.9250.

--- Written by David Song, Currency Analyst

To contact David, e-mail dsong@dailyfx.com

Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong

Join the Analyst-on-Demand Service to Trade Alongside the DailyFX Research Team!

To be added to David's e-mail distribution list, please follow this link.

Looking to use the DailyFX Trade Signals LIVE? Check out Mirror Trader.

New to FX? Fill Out This Quick Form for a Free Tutorial

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.


News & Analysis at your fingertips.