We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

Free Trading Guides
Oil - US Crude
Wall Street
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
More View more
Real Time News
  • Heads Up:🇺🇸 House Price Index MoM due at 13:00 GMT (15min) Previous: 0.7% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2020-05-26
  • Heads Up:🇷🇺 Unemployment Rate due at 13:00 GMT (15min) Expected: 5.5% Previous: 4.7% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2020-05-26
  • Heads Up:💶 ECB Financial Stability Review due at 13:00 GMT (15min) https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2020-05-26
  • 🇺🇸 Chicago Fed National Activity Index Actual: -16.74 Previous: -4.19 https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2020-05-26
  • U.S. Market Analyst at https://t.co/JsVsSmefgR, Shain Vernier covers - ✔️ Safe haven assets in volatile markets ✔️ Central banks and governments ✔️ How will commodities trade in a recession Only on Trading Global Markets Decoded #podcast. Tune in here: https://t.co/1UmEzEbwiy https://t.co/JlAqErwfbP
  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in Ripple are long at 96.64%, while traders in US 500 are at opposite extremes with 75.09%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX: https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment https://t.co/MWeht74N7c
  • Forex Update: As of 12:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: 🇳🇿NZD: 1.50% 🇦🇺AUD: 1.39% 🇬🇧GBP: 1.30% 🇪🇺EUR: 0.72% 🇨🇭CHF: 0.62% 🇯🇵JPY: 0.26% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#currencies https://t.co/LT66cMBc99
  • Heads Up:🇺🇸 Chicago Fed National Activity Index due at 12:30 GMT (15min) Previous: -4.19 https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2020-05-26
  • ECB would likely launch infringement procedure against Bundesbank if its stop buying bonds under PSPP - sources
  • ECB seen purchasing German bonds even if Bundesbank is forced to quit PSPP, according to sources
Forex: EUR/USD- Trading the U.S. Retail Sales Report

Forex: EUR/USD- Trading the U.S. Retail Sales Report

2012-12-13 02:00:00
David Song, Strategist

Trading the News: U.S. Advance Retail Sales

What’s Expected:

Time of release: 12/13/2012 13:30 GMT, 8:30 EST

Primary Pair Impact: EURUSD

Expected: 0.5%

Previous: -0.3%

DailyFX Forecast: 0.5% to 0.8%

Why Is This Event Important:

U.S. retail sales are projected to increase 0.5% in November following the 0.3% contraction the month prior and the rebound in private sector consumption should increase the appeal of the dollar as it remains one of the leading drivers of growth. As the Federal Reserve takes additional steps to encourage a stronger recovery, the highly accommodative policy stance held by the central bank may foster a larger-than-expected rise in household spending as economic activity gradually gathers pace.

Recent Economic Developments

The Upside




Consumer Credit (OCT)



Change in Non-Farm Payrolls (NOV)



Durable Goods Orders (OCT)



The Downside




NFIB Small Business Optimism (NOV)



U. of Michigan Confidence (DEC P)



Personal Income (OCT)



The ongoing improvement in the labor market along with the expansion in consumer credit should help to fuel private sector consumption, and a marked rebound in retail sales may prop up the USD as it dampens the scope of seeing additional monetary support. However, subdued wage growth paired with the recent decline on confidence may drag on household spending, and a dismal sales report may weigh on the greenback as the Fed retains a relatively dovish tone for monetary policy.

Potential Price Targets For The Release

Forex_EURUSD-_Trading_the_U.S._Retail_Sales_Report_body_ScreenShot109.png, Forex: EUR/USD- Trading the U.S. Retail Sales Report

Despite the expansion in the Fed’s open-ended asset purchase program, the EURUSD appears to have make another failed move at the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement from the 2009 high to the 2010 low around 1.3120, and the pair looks poised for a short-term reversal as it appears to be carving out a lower top in December. Should the U.S. retail sales report sap bets for more easing, the development may trigger a move back towards the 23.6% Fib (1.2640-50), and the pair may continue to give back the advance from earlier this year as the fundamental outlook for the world’s largest economy improves.

How To Trade This Event Risk

Expectations for a rebound in household consumption certainly casts a bullish outlook for the greenback, and a marked pickup in retail sales may set the stage for a long U.S. dollar trade should the data dampen speculation for additional monetary support. Therefore, if spending increases 0.5% or greater, we will need a red, five-minute candle following the release to establish a sell entry on two-lots of EURUSD. Once these conditions are met, we will set the initial stop at the nearby swing high or a reasonable distance from the entry, and this risk will generate our first target. The second objective will be based on discretion, and we will move the stop on the second lot to cost once the first trade hits its mark in order to preserve our profits.

In contrast, the lack of wage growth paired with the ongoing slack in the real economy may weigh on consumption, and a dismal sales report may produce further weakness in the reserve currency as it raises the scope for additional monetary support. As a result, if the print falls short of market expectations, we will implement the same setup for a long euro-dollar trade as the short position mentioned above, just in reverse.

Impact that the U.S. Advance Retail Sales report has had on USD during the last month


Data Released



Pips Change

(1 Hour post event )

Pips Change

(End of Day post event)

OCT 2012

11/14/2012 12:30 GMT





October 2012 U.S. Advance Retail Sales

Forex_EURUSD-_Trading_the_U.S._Retail_Sales_Report_body_ScreenShot108.png, Forex: EUR/USD- Trading the U.S. Retail Sales Report

Retail spending slipped 0.3% in October to mark the first decline in four months, led by a 1.9% decline in demands for building material, while discretionary spending on clothing slipped 0.1% after expanding 0.4% in September. The weaker-than-expected sales report dragged on the greenback, which pushed the EURUSD above the 1.2750 figure, but we saw the pair consolidate during the North American trade as the exchange rate closed at 1.2733.

--- Written by David Song, Currency Analyst

To contact David, e-mail dsong@dailyfx.com.

Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong

To be added to David's e-mail distribution list, please follow this link.

New to FX? Watch this Video

Questions? Comments? Join us in the DailyFX Forum

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.


News & Analysis at your fingertips.