News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
EUR/USD
Bullish
Oil - US Crude
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Wall Street
Bullish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Gold
Mixed
GBP/USD
Bullish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
USD/JPY
Mixed
More View more
Real Time News
  • What are some trading takeaways from 2020, as we jump into the new year? Find out with your free guide here: https://t.co/e7udCTJlmf #DailyfxGuides https://t.co/eqklbOEJMa
  • Trading Forex is not a shortcut to instant wealth, excessive leverage can magnify losses, and sentiment is a powerful indicator. Learn about these principles in depth here: https://t.co/lZFM8youtX https://t.co/p9Pkkbo2zf
  • The docket thins out over the coming week, but there are a few serious market highlights that can make for some interesting opportunities in the week ahead. $GBPUSD has the technical chops and fundamental confluence (US CPI, UK GDP, etc) https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/video/daily_news_report/2021/05/08/Dollar-Tumbles-Dow-Hits-Record-Highs-and-Dogecoin-Traders-Tune-In.html https://t.co/BMUQ0xVOge
  • Risk management is one of the most important aspects of successful trading, but is often overlooked. What are some basic principles or risk management? Find out from @PaulRobinsonFX here: https://t.co/IsnpfIZNKr https://t.co/nBfJcptUDK
  • Dogecoin continues to trade higher with explosive energy, attesting to the cryptocurrency's new clout. Meanwhile, Bitcoin and Ethereum sink. Get your market update from @FxWestwater here:https://t.co/ohw714KqB2 https://t.co/EWxKoQykv1
  • Natural gas prices moved higher, capturing a long-term trendline that could support the heating commodity's price in the coming weeks as colder temps support fundamental side. Get your market update from @FxWestwater here:https://t.co/tGUDJE9hn0 https://t.co/nROsrJa1sv
  • The Euro may fall against the US Dollar amid a historically strong month for the Greenback and relative bond yield spreads. EUR/USD appears to be eyeing bearish technical warning signs. Get your $EURUSD market update from @ddubrovskyFX here:https://t.co/njTDk8Ehoi https://t.co/w4II63utz1
  • The US Dollar is still struggling against most ASEAN currencies. USD/SGD remains downside-focused despite recent gains. USD/THB is eyeing a triangle. USD/IDR and USD/PHP may point lower. Get your market update from @ddubrovskyFX here:https://t.co/6Nvvmz8h6d https://t.co/TYsfOXHrro
  • (Weekly Fundamental) Australian Dollar Outlook: AUD/USD May Rise on Dovish Fed Speak After Huge NFP Miss #AUD $AUDUSD https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/fundamental/forecast/weekly/aud/2021/05/07/Australian-Dollar-Outlook-AUDUSD-May-Rise-on-Dovish-Fed-Speak-After-Huge-NFP-Miss.html?CHID=9&QPID=917702&utm_source=Twitter&utm_medium=Dubrovsky&utm_campaign=twr https://t.co/L9pERwjTqh
  • Bitcoin is struggling to extend April’s bounce while Ethereum and Litecoin are exhibiting signs of momentum exhaustion. What are key technical levels to watch for ahead? Find out from @ddubrovskyFX here:https://t.co/PnZId4xOh2 https://t.co/ZTYoxdBxLl
EURUSD: Trading the U. of Michigan Confidence Survey

EURUSD: Trading the U. of Michigan Confidence Survey

David Song, Strategist

Trading the News: U. of Michigan Confidence

What’s Expected:

Time of release: 10/12/2012 13:55 GMT, 9:55 EDT

Primary Pair Impact: EURUSD

Expected: 78.0

Previous: 78.3

DailyFX Forecast: 76.0 to 80.0

Why Is This Event Important:

The U. of Michigan Confidence survey is expected to fall back to 78.0 from 78.3 in September, and a drop in household sentiment may weigh on the U.S. dollar as it dampens the outlook for growth. As Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke aims to encourage a stronger recovery, the a dismal report may heighten speculation for more quantitative easing, but we may see a growing number of central bank officials soften their dovish tone for monetary as the world’s largest economy gets on a more sustainable path.

Recent Economic Developments

The Upside

Release

Expected

Actual

Consumer Credit (AUG)

$7.250B

$18.123B

Unemployment Rate (SEP)

8.2%

7.8%

Average Hourly Earnings (YoY) (SEP)

1.8%

1.8%

The Downside

Release

Expected

Actual

Durable Goods Orders (AUG)

-5.0%

-13.2%

Personal Consumption (2Q F)

1.7%

1.5%

Consumer Price Index (YoY) (AUG)

1.7%

1.7%

The ongoing improvement in the labor market paired with the rebound in wage growth may prop up household confidence, and a positive development may spark a bullish reaction in the U.S. dollar as it limits the Fed’s scope to expand its balance sheet further. However, the slowdown in private sector consumption along with sticky price growth may impede on consumer confidence, and a marked decline in the U. of Michigan survey may instill a bearish outlook for the dollar as Fed Chairman Bernanke maintains a fairly dovish tone for monetary policy.

Potential Price Targets For The Release

EURUSD_Trading_the_U._of_Michigan_Confidence_Survey_body_ScreenShot033.png, EURUSD: Trading the U. of Michigan Confidence Survey

As the EURUSD fails to maintain the upward trend from earlier this year, the pair may continue to consolidate over the remainder of the week, and we may see the euro-dollar may another run at the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement from the 2009 high to the 2010 low around 1.3120 as the 200-Day SMA (1.2820) continues to hold up as interim support. However, as the EURUSD carves out a lower top around the 38.2% Fib, the pullback from 1.3170 may turn into a larger correction, and we may see the pair work its way back towards the 23.6% Fib (1.2640-50) should the report curb speculation for more QE.

How To Trade This Event Risk

Forecasts for a drop in consumer confidence casts a bearish outlook for the greenback, but a positive development may pave the way for a long U.S. dollar trade as it dampens the scope for additional monetary support. Therefore, if the U. of Michigan survey unexpectedly improves in October, we will need a red, five-minute candle following the release to generate a sell entry on two-lots of EURUSD. Once these conditions are met, we will set the initial stop at the nearby swing high or a reasonable distance from the entry, and this risk will establish our first target. The second objective will be based on discretion, and we will move the stop on the second lot to cost once the first trade hits its mark

In contrast, the stickiness in price growth paired with the ongoing weakness in the real economy may drag on household sentiment, and a marked decline in the survey may drag on the dollar as it fuels speculation for additional monetary support. As a result, if the index slips to 78.0 or lower, we will implement the same strategy for a long euro-dollar trade as the short position laid out above, just in reverse.

Impact that the U. of Michigan Confidence survey has had on USD during the last month

Period

Data Released

Estimate

Actual

Pips Change

(1 Hour post event )

Pips Change

(End of Day post event)

SEP P 2012

9/14/2012 13:55 GMT

74.0

79.2

+15

-3

September 2012 U. of Michigan Confidence

EURUSD_Trading_the_U._of_Michigan_Confidence_Survey_body_ScreenShot032.png, EURUSD: Trading the U. of Michigan Confidence Survey

U.S. household confidence continued to pick up in September, with the U. of Michigan survey advancing to 79.2 from 74.3, and the data certainly instills an improved outlook for the world’s largest economy as private sector consumption remains one of the leading drivers of growth. However, the development propped up the EURUSD as it fueled a rise in risk-taking behavior, but the initial reaction fizzled out during the North American trade as the pair ended the day at 1.3128.

--- Written by David Song, Currency Analyst

To contact David, e-mail dsong@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong

To be added to David's e-mail distribution list, send an e-mail with subject line "Distribution List" to dsong@dailyfx.com.

Questions? Comments? Join us in the DailyFX Forum

View the Expo Presentation on ‘Trading the News’ For Additional Resources

Meet the DailyFX team in Las Vegas at the annual FXCM Traders Expo, November 2-4, 2012 at the Rio All Suite Hotel & Casino. For additional information regarding the schedule, workshops and accommodations, visit the FXCM Trading Expo website.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES