News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site. See our updated Privacy Policy here.



Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events


Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

Free Trading Guides
Please try again
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
More View more
Real Time News
  • The Consumer Price Index, better known by the acronym CPI, is an important economic indicator released on a regular basis by major economies to give a timely glimpse into current growth and inflation levels. Learn how to better understand CPI here:
  • *Reminder: Weekly Strategy Webinar tomorrow morning at 8:30am EST on DailyFX!
  • Bitcoin ended a 10 consecutive day advance with yesterday's bearish close - breaking pace only after it overtook the 100-day moving average. That 10-day climb matches the longest bull charge with only two other examples. $BTCUSD
  • Recessions can devastate the economy and disrupt the fortunes of individuals, businesses, and investors. But economic decline in the business cycle is inevitable, and your trading can be defined by how you respond to crisis. learn how to prepare here:
  • The ISM manufacturing index plays an important role in forex trading, with ISM data influencing currency prices globally. Find out about the recent history of ISM data, how to track it, and how to trade its release here:
  • The continuity seen across these volatility cycles is a good thing. Historical precedence offer a blueprint for identifying conditions supportive for a vol-event to occur, and how they may unfold. Deepen your knowledge of historical volatility here:
  • Tech stocks pulled back from record territory after Amazon posted tepid Q3 guidance. Get your weekly equities forecast from @margaretyjy here:
  • Many people are attracted to forex trading due to the amount of leverage that brokers provide. Leverage allows traders to gain more exposure in financial markets than what they are required to pay for. Learn about FX leverage here:
  • When it comes to buying and selling forex, traders have unique styles and approaches. Learn about buying and selling forex here:
  • Recent price action in the US Dollar Index (DXY) casts a bearish outlook for the Greenback as it extends the series of lower highs and lows from earlier this week. Get your weekly USD technical forecast from @DavidJSong here:
EURUSD: Trading the U.S. Consumer Price Report

EURUSD: Trading the U.S. Consumer Price Report

David Song, Strategist

Trading the News: U.S. Consumer Price Index

What’s Expected:

Time of release: 08/15/2012 12:30 GMT, 8:30 EDT

Primary Pair Impact: EURUSD

Expected: 1.5%

Previous: 1.7%

DailyFX Forecast: 1.5% to 1.7%

Why Is This Event Important:

Consumer prices in the U.S. are expected to expand 1.5% in July after climbing 1.7% the month prior, and easing price pressures may heighten expectations for additional monetary support as the Fed maintains a cautious outlook for the world’s largest economy. At the same time, the core rate of inflation is expected to hold steady at 2.2% for the second consecutive month, and the stickiness in underlying inflation may instill a bullish outlook for the U.S. dollar as it limits the Fed’s scope to expand its balance sheet further. In turn, an in-line print across the CPI figures may produce whipsaw-like price action in the greenback, but we will be keeping a close eye on the core reading as it continues to hold above the 2% target for inflation.

Recent Economic Developments

The Upside




Advance Retail Sales (JUL)



Produce Price Index ex Food & Energy (YoY) (JUL)



Personal Income (JUN)



The Downside




NFIB Small Business Optimism (JUL)



Wholesale Inventories (JUN)



Unemployment Rate (JUL)



The rebound in household spending paired with the uptick in wage growth may encourage businesses to pass on higher costs onto consumers, and a strong inflation print may encourage the Fed to soften its dovish tone for monetary policy as the recovery gradually gathers pace. However, as high unemployment along with the ongoing slack within the real economy dampens the outlook for private sector consumption, firms may continue to conduct heavy discounting to draw demands, and easing price pressures may weigh on the greenback as it fuels speculation for more quantitative easing.

Potential Price Targets For The Release

EURUSD_Trading_the_U.S._Consumer_Price_Report_body_ScreenShot089.png, EURUSD: Trading the U.S. Consumer Price Report

As the EURUSD fails to put in a close above the 50-Day SMA (1.2392), the pair appears to be carving out a lower high in August, and we may see the pair give back the rebound from July (1.2041) as the downward trend carried over from the previous year continues to take shape. However, there appears to be a bullish divergence in the relative strength index as the oscillator continues to move away from oversold territory, and a soft inflation print may produce a meaningful move above the 1.2400 figure as it fuels speculation for QE3. For a complete technical outlook including intra-day scalp targets, refer to yesterday's Winners/Losers report.

How To Trade This Event Risk

Trading the given event risk may not be as clear cut as some of our previous trades amid the deviation in market expectations, but a stronger headline and core print could pave the way for a long U.S. dollar trade as it dampens the scope for QE3. Therefore, if the inflation report tops forecast, we will need a red, five-minute candle following the release to establish a sell entry on two-lots of EURUSD. Once these conditions are met, we will set the initial stop at the nearby swing high or a reasonable distance from the entry, and this risk will generate our first objective. The second target will be based on discretion, and we will move the stop on the second lot to breakeven once the first trade hits its mark in an effort to lock-in our gains.

However, the ongoing weakness in the labor market paired with the persist slack within the real economy may continue to drag on price growth, and a soft inflation report may fuel expectations for more quantitative easing as the Fed keeps the door open to expand its balance sheet further. As a result, if price growth tapers off in July, we will carry out the same setup for a long euro-dollar trade as the short position mentioned above, just in the opposite direction.

Impact that the U.S. Consumer Price report has had on USD during the last month


Data Released



Pips Change

(1 Hour post event )

Pips Change

(End of Day post event)

JUN 2012

07/17/2012 12:30 GMT





June 2012 U.S. Consumer Price Index

EURUSD_Trading_the_U.S._Consumer_Price_Report_body_ScreenShot088.png, EURUSD: Trading the U.S. Consumer Price Report

Consumer prices in the world’s largest economy increased an annualized 1.7% for the second consecutive month in June, while the core rate of inflation advanced 2.2% during the same period to mark the slowest pace of growth since February. Indeed, the initial reaction was fairly muted, with the EURUSD maintain the narrow range ahead of the release, but the greenback struggled to hold its ground throughout the North American trade as the pair closed at 1.2292.

--- Written by David Song, Currency Analyst

To contact David, e-mail Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong

To be added to David's e-mail distribution list, send an e-mail with subject line "Distribution List" to

Questions? Comments? Join us in the DailyFX Forum

View the Expo Presentation on ‘Trading the News’ For Additional Resources

Meet the DailyFX team in Las Vegas at the annual FXCM Traders Expo, November 2-4, 2012 at the Rio All Suite Hotel & Casino. For additional information regarding the schedule, workshops and accommodations, visit the FXCM Trading Expo website.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.