News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site. See our updated Privacy Policy here.



Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events


Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

Free Trading Guides
Please try again
Oil - US Crude
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
More View more
Real Time News
  • Technical analysis of charts aims to identify patterns and market trends by utilizing differing forms of technical chart types and other chart functions. Learn about the top three technical analysis tools here:
  • Forex Update: As of 20:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: 🇨🇭CHF: 0.10% 🇪🇺EUR: -0.15% 🇯🇵JPY: -0.18% 🇬🇧GBP: -0.39% 🇳🇿NZD: -0.56% 🇦🇺AUD: -0.69% View the performance of all markets via
  • Commodities Update: As of 20:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Silver: -0.05% Oil - US Crude: -0.25% Gold: -0.77% View the performance of all markets via
  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in Silver are long at 92.72%, while traders in France 40 are at opposite extremes with 71.64%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX:
  • Entry orders are a valuable tool in forex trading. Traders can strategize to come up with a great trading plan, but if they can’t execute that plan effectively, all their hard work might as well be thrown out. Learn how to place entry orders here:
  • Indices Update: As of 20:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Wall Street: 0.03% France 40: 0.03% US 500: 0.02% FTSE 100: -0.06% Germany 30: -0.09% View the performance of all markets via
  • AUD declined into the weekend, wiping out earlier gains against USD #IronOre tumbled this week, with futures on #SGX down about 15%! -> 3-month low China is further cracking down on steel output to ebb pollution Iron ore is a key AU export to China, posing a risk #AUD $AUDUSD
  • Further your forex knowledge and gain informed analyses from industry leaders with our free guides, available today. Download the Q3 guide:
  • Commodities Update: As of 18:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Oil - US Crude: -0.11% Silver: -0.53% Gold: -0.95% View the performance of all markets via
  • Mexico’s second quarter GDP grows 1.5% q/q and 19.7% y/y, slightly below market expectations. Get your $USDMXN market update from @DColmanFX here:
EURUSD: Trading the U.S. Retail Sales Report

EURUSD: Trading the U.S. Retail Sales Report

David Song, Strategist

Trading the News: U.S. Advance Retail Sales

What’s Expected:

Time of release: 06/13/2012 12:30 GMT, 8:30 EDT

Primary Pair Impact: EURUSD

Expected: -0.2%

Previous: 0.1%

DailyFX Forecast: -0.3% to 0.2%

Why Is This Event Important:

U.S. retail sales are expected to contract 0.2% in May and the downturn in private sector consumption may drag on the dollar as it dampens the outlook for growth. As Fed officials remain cautious optimistic towards the economy, a marked contraction in household spending may spur dovish comments from the FOMC, and the central bank may keep the door open to expand its balance sheet further as the sovereign debt crisis continues to pose a threat to the recovery.

Recent Economic Developments

The Upside




ICSC Chain Store Sales (YoY) (MAY)



U. of Michigan Confidence (MAY F)



Durable Goods Orders (APR)



The Downside




Personal Income (APR)



Average Hourly Earnings (YoY) (MAY)



Change in Non-Farm Payrolls (MAY)



As household sentiment picks up, the resilience in private sector consumption may generate an above-forecast print, and the Fed may continue to move away from its easing cycle as the economy gets on a more sustainable path. However, subdued wage growth paired with the ongoing weakness in the labor market may continue to curb household spending, and a downturn in sales may reignite speculation for another round of quantitative easing as the central bank aims to encourage a sustainable recovery. In turn, a dismal report may spark a rebound in the EURUSD, and we may see the pair work its way back towards the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement around 1.2640-50 as market participants increase bets for QE3.

Potential Price Targets For The Release

EURUSD_Trading_the_U.S._Retail_Sales_Report_body_ScreenShot087.png, EURUSD: Trading the U.S. Retail Sales Report

As the EURUSD maintains the downward trend from 2011, we remain bearish against the pair, but a dismal sales report may spark another run at the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement from the 2009 high to the 2010 low around 1.2640-50 as it raises the scope more easing. However, as the relative strength index fails to maintain the upward trend from earlier this month, the pair looks poised to consolidate ahead of the Greek elections, and an uptick in private sector consumption may push the EURUSD back down wards the 1.2300 as it saps speculation for additional monetary support. For a complete EURUSD technical outlook and scalp levels, refer to this week's Scalp Report.

How To Trade This Event Risk

Forecasts for a drop in retail sales certainly casts a bearish outlook for the greenback, but an above-forecast print could pave the way for a long U.S. dollar trade as it dampens expectations for more easing. Therefore, if private spending holds flat or unexpectedly increases from the previous month, we will need a red, five-minute candle following the release to establish a sell entry on two-lots of EURUSD. Once these conditions are met, we will set the initial stop at the nearby swing high or a reasonable distance from the entry, and this risk will generate our first target. The second objective will be based on discretion, and we will move the stop on the second lot to cost once the first trade hits its mark in order to preserve our gains.

On the other hand, the lack of wage growth paired with the protracted recovery in the labor market may ultimately lead to a weak sales report, and a marked contraction in household spending may dampen the appeal of the greenback as currency traders maintain bets for more easing. As a result, if consumption tracks lower from the previous month, we will implement the same setup for a long euro-dollar trade as the short position laid out above, just in reverse.

Impact that the U.S. Advance Retail Sales report has had on USD during the last month


Data Released



Pips Change

(1 Hour post event )

Pips Change

(End of Day post event)

APR 2012

05/15/2012 12:30 GMT





April 2012 U.S. Advance Retail Sales

EURUSD_Trading_the_U.S._Retail_Sales_Report_body_ScreenShot078.png, EURUSD: Trading the U.S. Retail Sales Report

Household consumption increased 0.1% in April, with nine of the 13 major categories advancing, while a separate report showed consumer prices growing at an annualized pace of 2.3% during the same period to mark the slowest pace of growth since February 2011. Although the initial reaction was fairly muted, the slipped below 1.2800 as market participants scaled back their appetite for risk, and we saw the pair track lower throughout the North American trade as it ended the day at 1.2728.

--- Written by David Song, Currency Analyst

To contact David, e-mail Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong

To be added to David's e-mail distribution list, send an e-mail with subject line "Distribution List" to

Questions? Comments? Join us in the DailyFX Forum

View the Expo Presentation on ‘Trading the News’ For Additional Resources

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.