News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
EUR/USD
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Oil - US Crude
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Wall Street
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Gold
Bearish
GBP/USD
Mixed
USD/JPY
Bearish
More View more
Real Time News
  • The non-farm payroll (NFP) figure is a key economic indicator for the United States economy. It is also referred to as the monthly market mover. Find out why it has been given this nickname here: https://t.co/yOUVEEqhc5 https://t.co/ftrbRkFiJF
  • Human error in the forex market is common and often leads to familiar trading mistakes. These trading mistakes crop up particularly with novice traders on a regular basis. Learn about the top ten trading mistakes and how you can avoid them here: https://t.co/i8E2AXtzF3 https://t.co/Hny2HMYo4I
  • (Weekly Fundamental) Australian Dollar Outlook: Tied to Biden Stimulus Bets, S&P 500, US Dollar, Treasuries $AUDUSD #SP500 #stimulusbill #USD https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/fundamental/forecast/weekly/aud/2021/01/16/Australian-Dollar-Outlook-Tied-to-Biden-Stimulus-Bets-SP-500-US-Dollar-Treasuries.html?CHID=9&QPID=917702&utm_source=Twitter&utm_medium=Dubrovsky&utm_campaign=twr https://t.co/H7aus0Aljt
  • The inside bar pattern occurs regularly within financial markets. Incorporating the inside bar strategy can enhance a trader's market analysis. Find out how more here: https://t.co/E3EWOYTYNw https://t.co/7zI3p6UNVs
  • Bank of Japan to mull widening of its long-term yield band -BBG $USDJPY
  • While the rise in longer-dated Treasury yields have been impressive as of late, March highs remain a key focus for resistance The medium-term uptrend remains intact, maintained by rising support from August Fading fiscal stimulus expectations (size) may sour yields ahead https://t.co/L3vBcF0ts7
  • Trading bias allows traders to make informative decisions when dealing in the market. This relates to both novice and experienced traders alike. Start learning how you may be able to make more informed decisions here: https://t.co/rz7fqhRoMG https://t.co/vFJ8zmphMm
  • While the US Dollar has been holding its ground, its downside bias against the Singapore Dollar, New Taiwan Dollar Thai Baht and Indonesian Rupiah remains intact as it hovers at support. Get your market update from @ddubrovskyFX here: https://t.co/p7gAztWuVG https://t.co/zB1pOS6U4D
  • The $VIX is now running 227 trading days above the 20 handle. It is also working its way quickly into a dead-end descending triangle. These don't really break lower... https://t.co/39Pr7YrQ08
  • WTI Crude amongst the many market participants taking a hit today, down almost 3% $WTI $USD https://t.co/eg2phm1wUO
USD To Find Bid On Broader Fundamentals, AUD At Risk On RBA Policy

USD To Find Bid On Broader Fundamentals, AUD At Risk On RBA Policy

2012-04-30 15:45:00
David Song, Strategist

Index

Last

High

Low

Daily Change (%)

Daily Range (% of ATR)

DJ-FXCM Dollar Index

9830.8

9844.1

9816.27

0.07

55.72%

USD_To_Find_Bid_On_Broader_Fundamentals_AUD_At_Risk_On_RBA_Policy_body_ScreenShot096.png, USD To Find Bid On Broader Fundamentals, AUD At Risk On RBA Policy

The Dow Jones-FXCM U.S. Dollar Index (Ticker: USDollar) is 0.07 percent higher from the open after being oversold on Friday, and the greenback should continue to retrace the decline from earlier this month as we expect the Federal Reserve to conclude its easing cycle this year. However, the technical outlook continues to paint a bearish picture for the dollar as the downward trending channel takes shape, and we may see former support around 9,900 act as new resistance as market participants maintain bets for another round of quantitative easing.

USD_To_Find_Bid_On_Broader_Fundamentals_AUD_At_Risk_On_RBA_Policy_body_ScreenShot097.png, USD To Find Bid On Broader Fundamentals, AUD At Risk On RBA Policy

The USDOLLAR appears to be finding short-term support around the 50.0 percent Fibonacci retracement (9,830) as the relative strength index bounces back ahead of oversold territory, but the bearish divergence in the oscillator foreshadows further declines for the greenback as it maintains the downward trend carried over from the previous month. Nevertheless, as the developments coming out of the U.S. continue to point to high inflation, heightening price pressures certainly limit’s the FOMC’s scope to implement another round of quantitative easing, and we should see the central bank sound a bit more hawkish in the second-half of the year as Fed officials anticipate to see a stronger recovery. In turn, the shift in the policy outlook should prop up the dollar over the near-term, and the index could be carving out a higher low ahead of May as the RSI bounces back from a low of 35. Should the dollar continue to consolidate around 9,830, we may see the reserve currency build a short-term base ahead of the highly anticipated Non-Farm Payrolls report due out on Friday, and the development may ultimately spark a sharp reversal in the index should the data instill an improved outlook for the region.

USD_To_Find_Bid_On_Broader_Fundamentals_AUD_At_Risk_On_RBA_Policy_body_ScreenShot098.png, USD To Find Bid On Broader Fundamentals, AUD At Risk On RBA Policy

The greenback advanced against three of the four components, led by a 0.53 percent decline in the Australian dollar, and the high-yielding currency may face a sharp selloff over the next 24-hours of trading should the Reserve Bank of Australia embark on series of rate cuts in the coming months. Although the RBA is widely expected to lower the benchmark interest rate by 25bp to 4.00%, market participants are looking for more than 100bp worth of rate cuts over the next 12-months according to Credit Suisse overnight index swaps as growth and inflation falters. In turn, if Governor Glenn Stevens continues to endorse the easing cycle at the rate decision due out tonight, we should see the AUDUSD give back the rebound from earlier this month, and the pair may make another run at 1.0200 as interest rate expectations deteriorate.

--- Written by David Song, Currency Analyst

To contact David, e-mail dsong@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong

To be added to David's e-mail distribution list, send an e-mail with subject line "Distribution List" to dsong@dailyfx.com.

Join us to discuss the outlook for the major currencies on the DailyFX Forums

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES