News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site. See our updated Privacy Policy here.



Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events


Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

Free Trading Guides
Please try again
Oil - US Crude
Wall Street
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
More View more
Real Time News
  • GDP (Gross Domestic Product) economic data is deemed highly significant in the forex market. GDP figures are used as an indicator by fundamentalists to gauge the overall health and potential growth of a country. Learn use GDP data to your advantage here:
  • Traders utilize varying time frames to speculate in the forex market. The two most common are long- and short-term-time frames which transmits through to trend and trigger charts. Learn more about time-frame analysis here:
  • Emotions are often a key driving force behind FOMO. If left unchecked, they can lead traders to neglect trading plans and exceed comfortable levels of risk. Read on and get your emotions in check here:
  • There are three major forex trading sessions which comprise the 24-hour market: the London session, the US session and the Asian session. Learn about the characteristics of each session here:
  • Implementing a trading checklist is a vital part of the trading process because it helps traders to stay disciplined, stick to the trading plan, and builds confidence. Learn how to stick to the plan, stay disciplined, and use a checklist here:
  • Use this technical analysis pattern recognition skills test to sharpen your knowledge:
  • #Gold prices put in a major breakout last month and, so far, buyers have held the line. But a really big Fed meeting is on the calendar for this week. Can Gold bulls hold? Get your market update from @JStanleyFX here:
  • Struggling to define key levels? Floor-Trader Pivots assist traders in identifying areas in a chart where price is likely to approach and can be used to set appropriate targets, while effectively managing risk. Learn how to use this indicator here:
  • Top event risk for more than just the Dow and Dollar this week is the Wednesday #FOMC rate decision. What the markets expect sets the tone for how the event impacts price action. My run down of the week and Fed decision:
  • What suits your style of trading stocks or commodities? Find out what are the differences in these two markets here:
AUDUSD: Trading the Reserve Bank of Australia Interest Rate Decision

AUDUSD: Trading the Reserve Bank of Australia Interest Rate Decision

Trading the News: Reserve Bank of Australia Interest Rate Decision

What’s Expected:

Time of release: 03/06/2012 3:30 GMT, 22:30 EST

Primary Pair Impact:AUDUSD

Expected: 4.25%

Previous: 4.25%

DailyFX Forecast: 4.25%

Why Is This Event Important:

Although the Reserve Bank of Australia is widely expected to keep the benchmark interest rate at 4.25%, the policy statement accompanying the meeting could weigh on the high-yielding currency should the central bank show an increased willingness to lower borrowing costs further. Indeed, the RBA may sound more dovish as China – Australia’s largest trading partner – curbs its growth forecast for 2012, and dovish remarks from Governor Glenn Stevens could spark a key break in the AUDUSD as interest rate expectations falter.

Recent Economic Developments

The Upside




Retail Sales s.a. (MoM) (JAN)



Employment Chance (JAN)



Trade Balance (DEC)



The Downside




Average Weekly Wages (QoQ) (NOV)



Consumer Inflation Expectation (FEB)



Consumer Prices (YoY) (4Q)



The rebound in private sector consumption paired with the expansion in global trade may encourage the RBA to maintain a wait-and-see approach throughout 2012, and easing bets for lower interest rates may spur another run at 1.0800 as it maintains the range carried over from the previous month. However, the central bank may become increasingly cautious towards the economy amid easing price pressures along with the slowing recovery, and Governor Stevens may talk up speculation for another rate cut in an effort to spur a stronger recovery. In turn, we may see support around 1.0600 finally give out, and the AUDUSD may fall back towards the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement from the 2010 low to the 2011 high around 1.0350-60 as the fundamental outlook for the $1T economy deteriorates.

Potential Price Targets For The Rate Decision

AUDUSD_Trading_the_Reserve_Bank_of_Australia_Interest_Rate_Decision_body_AUD_DAILY__TTN_03.png, AUDUSD: Trading the Reserve Bank of Australia Interest Rate Decision

A look at the encompassing structure of the AUDUSD sees the pair breaking below the convergence of soft support at 1.0726 and trendline support dating back to the December 19th lows in North American trade. Note that the daily relative strength index also looks to have broken below trendline support dating back to November 23rd with initial daily support coming in at the February low just shy of the 1.06-figure and the 50-day moving average at 1.0540.

AUDUSD_Trading_the_Reserve_Bank_of_Australia_Interest_Rate_Decision_body_AUD_SCALP_TTN_03.png, AUDUSD: Trading the Reserve Bank of Australia Interest Rate Decision

The aussie has continued to trade within the confines of a descending channel formation for the past few sessions, with an RSI break below trendline support eyeing downside targets. Interim support rests at the 78.6% Fibonacci extension taken from the February 8th and 29th crests at 1.0660 with subsequent support targets eyed at 1.0635 and the 100% extension at 1.0609. A break below this level risks substantial losses for the aussie, with such a scenario eyeing targets at the 126.6% extension at 1.0550. Interim resistance stands at the 61.8% extension at the 1.07-figure backed by 1.0730 and the 38.2% extension at 1.0760.Should the print prompt a bearish response, look to target subsequent support levels, with a break below 1.06-figure offering further conviction on our directional bias.

How To Trade This Event Risk

Trading the given event risk may not be as clear cut as some of our previous trades, but the market reaction to the rate decision could pave the way for a long Australian dollar trade should the RBA talk down speculation for lower interest rates. Therefore, if the central bank strikes an improved outlook for the region, we will need to see a green, five-minute candle subsequent to the announcement to establish a buy entry on two-lots of AUDUSD. Once these conditions are fulfilled, we will set the initial stop at the nearby swing low or a reasonable distance from the entry, and this risk will generate our first target. The second objective will be based on discretion and we will move the stop on the second lot to cost once the first trade reaches its mark in an effort to lock-in our profits.

However, as the slowing recovery dampens the prospects for inflation, the RBA may look to lower the benchmark interest rate further in order to stem the downside risks surrounding the $1T economy. As a result, if Governor Stevens sees scope for another rate cut during the first-half of 2012, we will implement the same strategy for a short aussie-dollar trade as the long position laid out above, just in reverse.

Impact that the RBA Interest Rate Decision has had on AUD during the last meeting


Data Released



Pips Change

(1 Hour post event )

Pips Change

(End of Day post event)

JAN 2012

02/07/2012 3:30 GMT





January 2012 Reserve Bank of Australia Interest Rate Decision

AUDUSD_Trading_the_Reserve_Bank_of_Australia_Interest_Rate_Decision_body_ScreenShot024.png, AUDUSD: Trading the Reserve Bank of Australia Interest Rate Decision

Although the Reserve Bank of Australia surprised the market and kept the benchmark interest rate at 4.25%, but central bank left the door open for further rate cuts amid the slowing recovery in the $1T economy. Indeed, the development pushed the Australian dollar higher, with the AUDUSD climbing back above 1.0750, and the high-yielding currency continue to gain ground throughout the day as the exchange rate settled at 1.0806.

--- Written by David Song, Currency Analyst and Michael Boutros, Currency Strategist

To contact David, e-mail Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong

To contact Michael email mboutros@dailyfx.comor follow him on Twitter @MBForex.

To be added to David's e-mail distribution list, send an e-mail with subject line "Distribution List" to

To be added to Michael’s email distribution list, send an email with subject line “Distribution List” to

Questions? Comments? Join us in the DailyFX Forum

View the Expo Presentation on ‘Trading the News’ For Additional Resources

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.