News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site. See our updated Privacy Policy here.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
More View more
Real Time News
  • Did you know a Doji candlestick signals market indecision and the potential for a change in direction. What are the top five types of Doji candlesticks? Find out https://t.co/c51s3ISNw2 https://t.co/wuSEjViVHw
  • Gold prices failed to retake the uptrend from the May 2019, March 2020, and March 2021 lows, and are nearing their monthly low. Get your $XAUUSD market update from @CVecchioFX here:https://t.co/qkCdUJFtc2 https://t.co/ldbYm2U0vC
  • The US Dollar continues to push higher against ASEAN currencies after the FOMC rate decision. This leaves the USD/SGD, USD/THB, USD/PHP and USD/IDR outlook mostly tilted higher. Get your market update from @ddubrovskyFX here:https://t.co/zn56iTXcpk https://t.co/NmQzIm39lj
  • Latest update on #Evergrande focusing on the Australian Dollar "Australian Dollar Eyes Evergrande as USD Bondholders Still Await Interest Payments" #AUD $AUDUSD https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/market_alert/2021/09/24/Australian-Dollar-Eyes-Evergrande-as-USD-Bondholders-Still-Await-Interest-Payments.html?CHID=9&QPID=917702&utm_source=Twitter&utm_medium=Dubrovsky&utm_campaign=twr https://t.co/AAU8nMn0ou
  • Do you know how to properly Identify a double top formation? Double tops can enhance technical analysis when trading both forex or stocks, making the pattern highly versatile in nature. Learn more about the double top formation here: https://t.co/t9Flsqcxo9 https://t.co/3bjMHrUZRJ
  • 🇹🇭 Balance of Trade (AUG) Actual: $-1.22B Expected: $0.97B Previous: $0.18B https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2021-09-24
  • Heads Up:🇹🇭 Balance of Trade (AUG) due at 03:30 GMT (15min) Actual: $-1.22B Expected: $0.97B Previous: $0.18B https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2021-09-24
  • The Spinning Top candlestick pattern forms part of the vast Japanese candlestick repertoire with its own distinct features. Gain a better understanding of the spinning top candlestick here: https://t.co/DWm7cC4v7H https://t.co/uhBNvCTHrW
  • Evergrande USD bondholders say have yet to receive interest due Thursday -BBG
  • The US Dollar seems to be back on the offensive against its major counterparts, pressuring EUR/USD and NZD/USD lower as USD/JPY consolidates. USD/CHF surges past key resistance. Get your market update from @ddubrovskyFX here:https://t.co/MrLGSp7FYa https://t.co/J0vSWHaADc
GBP Volatility Rises Ahead of BoE, Crude Oil Soaring, NZD Outperforms - US Market Open

GBP Volatility Rises Ahead of BoE, Crude Oil Soaring, NZD Outperforms - US Market Open

Justin McQueen, Strategist

NZD, GBP, EUR/USD Analysis & News

  • Italy’s FTSE MIB and BTPs Rise Amid Draghi Reports
  • NZD Outperforms on Jobs Data
  • GBP Volatility Picks Up Ahead of BoE

QUICK TAKE: Crude Oil Soaring, NZD Outperforms, GBP Awaits BoE

Equities: Strong tech earnings from Alphabet and Amazon, alongside better than expected ADP data are underpinning US futures. While the Democrats have taken their first steps in advancing President Biden’s $1.9trillion package without Republican support. Elsewhere, Italian stocks are outperforming amid reports that Former ECB President, Draghi, has been tipped to form a new government. The focus will be whether Draghi can gain support from the 5 Star party in particular.

Euro Stoxx 50 Sector Breakdown

Outperformers: Utilities (2.7%), IT (1.3%), Financials (0.7%)

Laggards: Energy (-0.7%), Healthcare (-0.5%), Consumer Discretionary (-0.1%)

US Futures: S&P 500 (0.5%), DJIA (flat), Nasdaq 100 (0.7%)

Intra-day FX Performance

GBP Volatility Rises Ahead of BoE, Crude Oil Soaring, NZD Outperforms - US Market Open

NZD: Overnight, the latest jobs report showed that the unemployment rate for Q4 fell to 4.9% from 5.3%, which is significantly lower than what the RBNZ had forecast at 5.6%. This also comes after the RBNZ underestimated Q4 CPI, which printed at 0.3ppts above the central bank’s forecast. In turn, local banks have pushed back against expectations of further easing, while the BNZ now expect a rate hike in 2022. That said, the outlook for the Kiwi is likely to remain firm in the run-up to the RBNZ meeting, particularly against the Aussie, given that the RBA has recently extended its QE program earlier than many had expected with Governor Lowe continuing to talk down the AUD. As I mentioned a couple of weeks ago, AUD/NZD had been trading at rich levels relative to 10yr spreads and as things currently stand, bond spreads signal more losses for the cross.

EUR: So far, the positive reaction seen in Italian assets amid reports that Draghi could be the next PM has yet to spill over into the Euro. The currency is currently trading at a key support zone at 1.2000-11, which also coincides with sizeable option expiries magnetising price action. Similarly, EUR/JPY has also edged lower despite the tightening in Bund-BTP spreads.

GBP: The Pound remains rangebound against the greenback with the pair struggling at the mid-1.37s, while dip demand persists at the 1.36 handle. Tomorrow will see focus on the Bank of England monetary policy decision where greater attention will likely be placed on the review surrounding negative rates. My view is that there is a risk of a kneejerk move lower will be faded. While the BoE is likely to state that negative rates are operationally feasible, this does not mean they will go down this root. In the option markets, overnight vols signal a breakeven premium of 72bps.

Commodities: Silver prices have stabilised slightly with prices testing 27.00 yet again. Similarly, gold has halted its descent for now, although, with the USD continuing edge higher, upside for the yellow metal has been quickly faded. Elsewhere, oil prices are at 1yr highs with bullish API crude inventories helping overnight.

Looking ahead:

GBP Volatility Rises Ahead of BoE, Crude Oil Soaring, NZD Outperforms - US Market Open

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES