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DAX 30, FTSE 100, CAC 40 Outlook Cautious Despite Relief Rally

DAX 30, FTSE 100, CAC 40 Outlook Cautious Despite Relief Rally

2020-03-10 14:00:00
Justin McQueen, Analyst
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DAX, FTSE 100, CAC 40 Price Analysis & News

  • DAX | Resistance Curbs Recovery, ECB May Offer Support
  • FTSE 100 | Fiscal Taps to be Unleashed in UK Budget
  • CAC 40 | Index Remains Tilted to the Downside Below Key Fib

A relief rally across global equity markets with US equity futures firmly in the green and briefly hitting limit up. Despite Saudi Aramco looking to boost oil production to a record 12.3mbpd (9.7mbpd in March), Brent crude futures are up over 20% from yesterday’s low. However, the oil price war is likely to leave Brent and WTI crude vulnerable to set backs. Among the support to risk sentiment had been on reports that President Trump is mulling payroll tax cuts, however, this had been at odds with reports via CNBC that the White House is not ready to roll out specific economic proposals in its response to the coronavirus (Press conference expected 1700EST). Consequently, equity have pulled back from their intra-day highs, which in turn is seeing support filter into the Japanese Yen and US treasuries.

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DAX | Resistance Curbs Recovery, ECB May Offer Support

Failure for the index to make a break above 11000 puts the initial market view back towards 10500. A lack of notable positive developments brings the bounce into question (dead cat bounce?). However, all eyes will be on the ECB, where overdelivering on measures could be enough to curb further downside. (Possible ECB measures). For now, key support zone is situated at 10170-10200.

Germany 30 MIXED
Data provided by
of clients are net long. of clients are net short.
Change in Longs Shorts OI
Daily 18% -16% -4%
Weekly -5% 9% 3%
What does it mean for price action?
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DAX Price Chart: Daily Time Frame

DAX 30, FTSE 100, CAC 40 Outlook Cautious Despite Relief Rally

Source: IG Charts

FTSE 100 | Fiscal Taps to be Unleashed in UK Budget

The FTSE 100 had been among the worst hit equity markets in yesterday’s rout given its sizeable exposure to the oil sector (Shell & BP). However, declines in the index came to a halt at the Brexit referendum low (circa 5737). Focus for UK asset will be on the budget released tomorrow, where it is expected that the Chancellor will unleash the spending taps.

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FTSE 100 Price Chart: Weekly Time Frame

DAX 30, FTSE 100, CAC 40 Outlook Cautious Despite Relief Rally

Source: IG Charts

CAC 40 | Index Remains Tilted to the Downside Below Key Fib

Initial gains fading as the spread of the coronavirus continues to plague Europe. With the index struggling below the 76.4% Fibonacci retracement, risks remain tilted to the downside where a break below yesterday’s close (4686) could exacerbate the pullback in the index.

France 40 BEARISH
Data provided by
of clients are net long. of clients are net short.
Change in Longs Shorts OI
Daily 18% -21% -9%
Weekly 2% -18% -10%
What does it mean for price action?
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CAC 40: Daily Time Frame

DAX 30, FTSE 100, CAC 40 Outlook Cautious Despite Relief Rally

IG Charts

--- Written by Justin McQueen, Market Analyst

Follow Justin on Twitter @JMcQueenFX

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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