News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
EUR/USD
Bearish
Oil - US Crude
Mixed
Wall Street
Mixed
Gold
Bearish
GBP/USD
Bearish
USD/JPY
Bullish
More View more
Real Time News
  • There is a great debate about which type of analysis is better for a trader. Is it better to be a fundamental trader or a technical trader? Find out here: https://t.co/aVAzFypAg1 https://t.co/7mc19Gxrvm
  • #Gold prices succumbed to selling pressure as the US Dollar soared this past week What is #XAUUSD facing these next few days and can these fundamental forces extend its selloff? Check out my outlook here - https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/fundamental/forecast/weekly/chf/2020/09/26/Gold-Price-Outlook-Rising-US-Dollar-Sinks-XAUUSD-Will-Losses-Extend.html?CHID=9&QPID=917702&utm_source=Twitter&utm_medium=Dubrovsky&utm_campaign=twr https://t.co/gPhy0KoW3W
  • GDP (Gross Domestic Product) economic data is deemed highly significant in the forex market. GDP figures are used as an indicator by fundamentalists to gauge the overall health and potential growth of a country. Learn use GDP data to your advantage here: https://t.co/38gTDnpPbn https://t.co/Xtk5g4JQEB
  • Many people are attracted to forex trading due to the amount of leverage that brokers provide. Leverage allows traders to gain more exposure in financial markets than what they are required to pay for. Learn about FX leverage here: https://t.co/3Wked6GBOp https://t.co/SsUguHB39W
  • Key levels in forex tend to draw attention to traders in the market. These are psychological prices which tie into the human psyche and way of thinking. Learn about psychological levels here:https://t.co/1oygcFMFNs https://t.co/aD1ZWhTWZp
  • The price of #oil may continue to trade in a narrow range as the rebound from the September low ($36.13) appears to have stalled ahead of the month high ($43.43). Get your #commodities update from @DavidJSong here: https://t.co/719LgjFmYG https://t.co/SSoqjONUzA
  • The Australian Dollar may extend its slide lower despite the planned easing of Covid-19 restrictions, as the market continues to price in an RBA rate cut on October 6. Get your #currencies update from @DanielGMoss here: https://t.co/HJpngnerzY https://t.co/g6X8ABQDwY
  • The Indian Rupee may be at risk to the US Dollar as USD/INR attempts to refocus to the upside. This is as the Nifty 50, India’s benchmark stock index, could fall further. Get your USD/INR market update here:https://t.co/ed4QR7QQOn https://t.co/gDWYNtm2UY
  • Technical indicators are chart analysis tools that can help traders better understand and act on price movement. Learn more about the importance of technical analysis here: https://t.co/NpC1D8y4Aa https://t.co/Q7TcbrYXjl
  • #Gold prices have plunged nearly 11% off the record highs with a breakout risking further losses. Here are technical trade levels that matter on the XAU/USD weekly chart. Get your #metals update from @MBForex here: https://t.co/7p3jPx6nQd https://t.co/yxymjCHti6
Gold Price Forecast Bearish as Price Holds Below Triangle Support

Gold Price Forecast Bearish as Price Holds Below Triangle Support

2019-04-18 14:10:00
Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Strategist
Share:

Talking Points:

- Gold prices exited their 2019 triangle to the downside earlier this week.

- Revived concerns over global growth may offset broader risk trends that have seen the safe haven currencies and Gold suffer in recent days.

- Following the breakdown, recent changes in positioning suggest that traders have been quick to abandon their Gold longs.

Looking for longer-term forecasts on Gold and Silver prices? Check out the DailyFX Trading Guides.

Gold prices have had a rough few days in the run-up to Good Friday and Easter Monday. Having rapidly reversed from symmetrical triangle resistance and having come into symmetrical triangle support, we were watching for a potential triangle breakdown at the start of the week. Now, Gold prices have cratered to a fresh 2019 low, breaking out of the symmetrical triangle to the downside in the process.

It’s important to recognize that the key developments that have undercut the Japanese Yen’s and US Dollar’s appeal as safe havens — Brexit being punted to October, receding concerns over the US-China trade war, and Q1’19 US GDP expectations rebounding – have also served to undermine Gold.

But traders need to be aware that the opposite will also be true: should these events flare up again – and it looks like Brexit will be back in the headlines as soon as next week – and demand for the Japanese Yen and US Dollar increases, it is likely that Gold will benefit as well.

Gold Technical Forecast: Daily Price Chart (April 2018 to April 2019) (Chart 1)

gold price forecast, gold price, gold chart, gold price chart, gold price technical forecast

Now that Gold prices have broken through symmetrical triangle support and have established a fresh 2019 low, technical indicators have started to shift in a more bearish direction. Momentum continues to accelerate to the downside: price is below the daily 8-, 13-, and 21-EMA envelope; and both daily MACD and Slow Stochastics are pointing lower below their respective median/neutral lines.

Earlier this week it was noted that “A move below the April low of 1280.80 would be a significant development in the days ahead and suggest that Gold prices may see a deeper setback towards the rising trendline from the August, September, and November 2018 lows near 1260 by the end of the month.”

Now that the first condition has been met, a return towards 1260 is eyed. Only if price was able to climb back into the triangle consolidation would the near-term bearish forecast for Gold prices be invalidated; that would occur above 1284.20, where the daily 8-EMA resides.

IG Client Sentiment Index: Spot Gold Price Forecast (April 18, 2019) (Chart 2)

igcs, ig client sentiment index, igcs gold, gold price forecast, gold chart, gold price, gold price chart

Spot Gold: Retail trader data shows 74.4% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders long to short at 2.91 to 1. The number of traders net-long is 2.4% higher than yesterday and 11.4% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 3.7% higher than yesterday and 4.3% higher from last week.

We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggests Spot Gold prices may continue to fall. Positioning is less net-long than yesterday but more net-long from last week. The combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a further mixed Spot Gold trading bias.

FX TRADING RESOURCES

Whether you are a new or experienced trader, DailyFX has multiple resources available to help you: an indicator for monitoring trader sentiment; quarterly trading forecasts; analytical and educational webinars held daily; trading guides to help you improve trading performance, and even one for those who are new to FX trading.

--- Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist

To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail at cvecchio@dailyfx.com

Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX

View our long-term forecasts with the DailyFX Trading Guides

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES