Never miss a story from Christopher Vecchio

Subscribe to receive daily updates on publications
Please enter valid First Name
Please fill out this field.
Please enter valid Last Name
Please fill out this field.
Please enter valid email
Please fill out this field.
Please select a country

I’d like to receive information from DailyFX and IG about trading opportunities and their products and services via email.

Please fill out this field.

Your Forecast Is Headed to Your Inbox

But don't just read our analysis - put it to the rest. Your forecast comes with a free demo account from our provider, IG, so you can try out trading with zero risk.

Your demo is preloaded with £10,000 virtual funds, which you can use to trade over 10,000 live global markets.

We'll email you login details shortly.

Learn More about Your Demo

You are subscribed to Christopher Vecchio

You can manage your subscriptions by following the link in the footer of each email you will receive

An error occurred submitting your form.
Please try again later.

Talking Points:

- Gold prices exited their 2019 triangle to the downside earlier this week.

- Revived concerns over global growth may offset broader risk trends that have seen the safe haven currencies and Gold suffer in recent days.

- Following the breakdown, recent changes in positioning suggest that traders have been quick to abandon their Gold longs.

Looking for longer-term forecasts on Gold and Silver prices? Check out the DailyFX Trading Guides.

Gold prices have had a rough few days in the run-up to Good Friday and Easter Monday. Having rapidly reversed from symmetrical triangle resistance and having come into symmetrical triangle support, we were watching for a potential triangle breakdown at the start of the week. Now, Gold prices have cratered to a fresh 2019 low, breaking out of the symmetrical triangle to the downside in the process.

It’s important to recognize that the key developments that have undercut the Japanese Yen’s and US Dollar’s appeal as safe havens — Brexit being punted to October, receding concerns over the US-China trade war, and Q1’19 US GDP expectations rebounding – have also served to undermine Gold.

But traders need to be aware that the opposite will also be true: should these events flare up again – and it looks like Brexit will be back in the headlines as soon as next week – and demand for the Japanese Yen and US Dollar increases, it is likely that Gold will benefit as well.

Gold Technical Forecast: Daily Price Chart (April 2018 to April 2019) (Chart 1)

gold price forecast, gold price, gold chart, gold price chart, gold price technical forecast

Now that Gold prices have broken through symmetrical triangle support and have established a fresh 2019 low, technical indicators have started to shift in a more bearish direction. Momentum continues to accelerate to the downside: price is below the daily 8-, 13-, and 21-EMA envelope; and both daily MACD and Slow Stochastics are pointing lower below their respective median/neutral lines.

Earlier this week it was noted that “A move below the April low of 1280.80 would be a significant development in the days ahead and suggest that Gold prices may see a deeper setback towards the rising trendline from the August, September, and November 2018 lows near 1260 by the end of the month.”

Now that the first condition has been met, a return towards 1260 is eyed. Only if price was able to climb back into the triangle consolidation would the near-term bearish forecast for Gold prices be invalidated; that would occur above 1284.20, where the daily 8-EMA resides.

IG Client Sentiment Index: Spot Gold Price Forecast (April 18, 2019) (Chart 2)

igcs, ig client sentiment index, igcs gold, gold price forecast, gold chart, gold price, gold price chart

Spot Gold: Retail trader data shows 74.4% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders long to short at 2.91 to 1. The number of traders net-long is 2.4% higher than yesterday and 11.4% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 3.7% higher than yesterday and 4.3% higher from last week.

We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggests Spot Gold prices may continue to fall. Positioning is less net-long than yesterday but more net-long from last week. The combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a further mixed Spot Gold trading bias.


Whether you are a new or experienced trader, DailyFX has multiple resources available to help you: an indicator for monitoring trader sentiment; quarterly trading forecasts; analytical and educational webinars held daily; trading guides to help you improve trading performance, and even one for those who are new to FX trading.

--- Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist

To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail at

Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX

View our long-term forecasts with the DailyFX Trading Guides