We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

Free Trading Guides
EUR/USD
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
GBP/USD
Bearish
USD/JPY
Bullish
Gold
Bullish
Oil - US Crude
Bullish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Bitcoin
Mixed
More View more
Real Time News
  • RT @YuanTalks: #China temporarily suspend additional tariffs of either 10% or 5% on some #US goods scheduled to take effect on Dec 15, said…
  • The gold-silver ratio is simple. It is the number of silver ounces you would need to trade to receive one ounce of #gold at current market prices. Find out how you can use this in your trading strategy here:https://t.co/kh5DZvv5ib $XAUUSD https://t.co/eJGODpfTNc
  • How can traders avoid #FOMO in trading? Start by implementing a well-heeled plan taking only four hours per week. Get your insight from @JStanleyFX here: https://t.co/vwUShQPc27 https://t.co/DoVBd1l1oO
  • #Silver is a precious metal commodity that investors use as an inflation hedge and safe-haven asset. Find out what are some strategies and tips to trade silver here: https://t.co/k4tVcFuwxW #CommoditieswithDailyFX https://t.co/zXCSmH2HLX
  • Markets are trying to maintain a bullish tilt as a new week rolls around, a look ahead at the charts of the #Dow, #DAX, and #FTSE. Get your technical analysis on major world indices from @PaulRobinsonFX here: https://t.co/bYjRDvQsdM https://t.co/mbg0rUbv3K
  • Trade conflict is clearly awful for the broad world economy, but some countries are already benefiting from it. More stand to do so. Spotting them early could be profitable. Get your update on the #tradewar from @DavidCottleFX here: https://t.co/og0VAPAqwm https://t.co/xB8hYUj4OA
  • #Gold prices may suffer if better-than-expected US economic data and progress on US-China trade negotiations cool 2020 Fed rate cuts and alleviate demand for anti-fiat hedges. Get your $XAUUSD market update from @ZabelinDimitri here: https://t.co/3ula2sUpqL $gld https://t.co/2iZwxcm3wP
  • What's the difference between leading and lagging indicators? Find out from @RichardSnowFX here:https://t.co/vGx8HCagF5 https://t.co/KCZ48rDnhy
  • Why financial market traders must monitor both monetary and fiscal policy? Find out from @MartinSEssex here: https://t.co/Fkzk88Y5gm https://t.co/tTXcw1b7Tp
  • RT @dlacalle_IA: ... “Temporary” Fed plans to double repo market intervention to avoid cash crunch https://t.co/j6N3Qmo6HX
US Dollar Eyes Breakout as US Yields Rise Alongside Growth Expectations

US Dollar Eyes Breakout as US Yields Rise Alongside Growth Expectations

2019-04-02 14:00:00
Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Sr. Currency Strategist
Share:

Talking Points

- The latest headlines are daunting; the Brexit process is a ship without a rudder. What’s next? Customs union? General election? Second referendum?

- Yesterday produced the fifth-largest gain by the US Treasury 10-year yield since US President Donald Trump’s election.

- Retail traders continue to fade US Dollar advances.

Looking for longer-term forecasts on the US Dollar? Check out the DailyFX Trading Guides.

The US Dollar (via the DXY Index) is continuing its strong run of late, posting its seventh gain over the past eight trading days. Ongoing economic concerns out of Europe weigh on the Euro, while the shambolic process that is Brexit is impacting all of the European currencies, not just the British Pound. Elsewhere, the Australian Dollar is reeling after the Reserve Bank of Australia’s dovish shift (although, given what the RBNZ did last week, as much was anticipated). After gaining over 1% yesterday, US stocks are flat around the open.

‘The End of May Before the End of April?’ – Brexit Latest

Another round of failed votes in UK parliament has seemingly left the Brexit process a ship without a rudder. No consensus has emerged for any option, although it’s clear that the closest UK parliament would get to an agreement would be through a customs union. Otherwise, the second most popular option was for a second referendum – but if Brexit hasn’t been defined, what would people vote for?

A colleague of mine passed on a cheeky quote he heard yesterday after the Brexit votes: “for the first time, the end of May could come before the end of April.” And while it’s true that UK Prime Minister Theresa May is increasingly unpopular within her own Tory party, there’s little reason to believe that a general election will solve any of the problems in UK parliament; polls show that neither Labour or the Tories would be able to govern with a majority.

What’s next? Customs union? General election? Second referendum? All are possibilities. The only thing that seems guaranteed is more volatility for GBP-crosses.

US Economic Data Hasn’t Been Bad…Quite the Opposite

All of the hand-wringing about Q1’19 US GDP growth may be for naught. The preliminary March US Durable Goods Orders report beat expectations mildly, but to look at one point of reference would be to look at an individual tree within the forest. US growth expectations have seen a significant rebound in recent weeks.

US Dollar Eyes Breakout as US Yields Rise Alongside Growth Expectations

Based on the data received thus far about Q1’19, the Atlanta Fed GDPNow forecast is looking for growth at 2.1% after hitting a low of 0.2% in the second week of March. The next update to the Q1’19 forecast will be released later today.

US Treasury 10-year Yield: Daily Timeframe (June 2016 to April 2019) (Chart 1)

US Dollar Eyes Breakout as US Yields Rise Alongside Growth Expectations

The bump in US growth expectations may finally be starting to filter through into US Treasury yields, a notable development given that US rates may be bottoming out now that Q1’19 GDP estimates have crossed back above 2% annualized. Price action yesterday in US Treasuries was particularly noteworthy given the scale of the advance: it was the fifth largest single day gain by the 10-year yield since US President Donald Trump was elected in November 2016.

DXY Index Price Chart: Daily Timeframe (June 2018 to April 2019) (Chart 2)

US Dollar Eyes Breakout as US Yields Rise Alongside Growth Expectations

Yesterday it was noted that “For the broader DXY Index, price has been trading between 95.85 and 97.35 every day since February 4…traders should be on alert for potential breakout opportunities over the coming sessions.” The DXY Index has started to eclipse 97.35 to the topside, opening up the possibility for a move back towards the 2018 highs near 97.72. Bullish momentum continues to build with the near-term with price stretching further above its daily 8-, 13-, and 21-EMA envelope while both the daily MACD and Slow Stochastics push higher above their respective signal/median lines.

FX TRADING RESOURCES

Whether you are a new or experienced trader, DailyFX has multiple resources available to help you: an indicator for monitoring trader sentiment; quarterly trading forecasts; analytical and educational webinars held daily; trading guides to help you improve trading performance, and even one for those who are new to FX trading.

--- Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist

To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail at cvecchio@dailyfx.com

Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX

View our long-term forecasts with the DailyFX Trading Guides

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES

News & Analysis at your fingertips.