News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site. See our updated Privacy Policy here.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
EUR/USD
Bullish
Oil - US Crude
Mixed
Wall Street
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Gold
Bullish
GBP/USD
Mixed
USD/JPY
Bearish
More View more
Real Time News
  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in Silver are long at 87.98%, while traders in EUR/USD are at opposite extremes with 71.00%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX: https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment https://t.co/RDpVdSAa8R
  • USD/CAD trading at May 2015 levels. One swing-low lies below, otherwise not much else to look at. Get your $USDCAD market update from @PaulRobinsonFX here:https://t.co/vxjTXnvCJK https://t.co/VG5I0jJKj6
  • Indices Update: As of 20:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: US 500: -0.01% Wall Street: -0.02% FTSE 100: -0.50% Germany 30: -0.53% France 40: -0.62% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#indices https://t.co/lwIHpNLqV3
  • https://t.co/G5ur1NNoao
  • NZD/USD approaches the monthly high (0.7305) as a growing number of Federal Reserve officials warn of a transitory rise in inflation. Get your $NZDUSD market update from @DavidJSong here:https://t.co/QdvufJUhq6 https://t.co/K3PgcBDCM2
  • Lumber futures prices have dropped by ~26% since the intraday top was put in on May 10th: https://t.co/vaxxzgCJKO
  • #Oil Price Forecast: #Crude Oil Rally at Risk as $WTI Stalls at Resistance - https://t.co/lgkgcbZgzA https://t.co/klteO83uTv
  • Fed's Quarles: The economy is recovering, but is not yet fully recovered
  • DXY Index now trades in the red year-to-date after falling -4% from its March peak. Get your market update from @RichDvorakFX here:https://t.co/YUrLlpigpj https://t.co/Xn0CuFBcJo
  • Banxico's Espinosa: - Economic recovery may require changes to monetary policy - Banxico may have to raise rates before the Fed
US Dollar Sideways as January Jobs Report Paints Mixed Picture

US Dollar Sideways as January Jobs Report Paints Mixed Picture

Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Strategist

Talking Points:

- Headline jobs growth comes in at +304K, and wage growth came in +3.2% y/y.

- The unemployment rate (U3) rose to 4.0% from 3.9%, but it came alongside a healthy expansion of the labor force participation rate from 63.2% to 63.1%.

- The US Dollar gained ground immediately following the data, but amid concerns that the US government shutdown hurt Q1’19 growth, traders were ambivalent about taking the jobs report too seriously.

See Q1’19 forecasts for the US Dollar, Euro, British Pound and more with the DailyFX Trading Guides

The first jobs report for 2019 is out and traders are proving ambivalent about taking the data too seriously. The January US Nonfarm Payrolls report showed headline jobs growth of +304K, easily blowing past the consensus estimate of +165K, according to a Bloomberg News survey.

At first glance, the rise in the unemployment rate (U3) to 4.0% may be seen as a negative, but it came alongside a healthy expansion of the labor market, with the labor force participation rate rising to 63.2% from 63.1%. In effect, the rise in the unemployment rate can be explained by the fact that there were more new entrants coming into the labor pool than there were available jobs.

While the topline beat was welcome against the backdrop of uncertainty thanks to the US government shutdown, it is worth noting that the December payrolls figure was revised lower by -90K jobs – effectively negating any positivity. Following the January FOMC meeting in which Fed Chair Jerome Powell dictated “patience” above all else, as well as the weekly jobless claims report that showed a spike in applicants, traders are clearly not buying into the idea that ‘all is clear’ for the US economy.

Elsewhere, wage growth remains strong, meeting expectations at +3.2% (y/y). This reading is tied with October and December 2018 as the fastest pace of wage growth seen since April 2009.

Here are the data driving the greenback this morning:

- USD Unemployment Rate (JAN): 4.0% versus 3.9% expected, unch.

- USD Change in Nonfarm Payrolls (JAN): +304K versus +165K expected, from +222K (revised lower from +304K).

- USD Labor Force Participation Rate (JAN): 63.1% from 62.9%.

- USD Average Hourly Earnings (JAN): +3.2% as expected, unch (y/y).

See the DailyFX economic calendar for Friday, January 4, 2019

DXY Index Price Chart: 1-minute Timeframe (February 1, 2019 Intraday)

US Dollar Sideways as January Jobs Report Paints Mixed Picture

Immediately following the data, the US Dollar whipped back and forth versus the Euro and the Japanese Yen, with the Dollar Index (DXY) rallying from 95.49 to as high as 95.59 in the wake of the report. By the time this report was written, the US Dollar had seen the DXY Index dip as low as 95.40 before settling in at 95.49 – its price before the jobs data were released – at the time this report was written,

FX TRADING RESOURCES

Whether you are a new or experienced trader, DailyFX has multiple resources available to help you: an indicator for monitoring trader sentiment; quarterly trading forecasts; analytical and educational webinars held daily; trading guides to help you improve trading performance, and even one for those who are new to FX trading.

--- Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist

To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com

Follow him in the DailyFX Real Time News feed and Twitter at @CVecchioFX

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES