News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site. See our updated Privacy Policy here.



Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events


Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

Free Trading Guides
Please try again
More View more
Real Time News
  • Commodities Update: As of 13:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Silver: 1.67% Gold: 0.62% Oil - US Crude: -1.03% View the performance of all markets via
  • #Bitcoin - Daily Chart - breakout to ATH . . Watch the close. . .
  • Now that the Bitcoin ATH is out of the way - BTC +2.1% @ $65,540 - can we concentrate on Ethereum #btc #bitcoin #eth #ethereum
  • Hit series ‘Squid Game’ expected to drive subscriber growth into year end. Get your market update from @RichardSnowFX here:
  • $EURUSD res has held at that 1664 spot but buyers stepped-in for some higher-low support, right around prior resistance. could have some continuation left here, next res zone 1700-1736 $EURUSD move will be key to #DXY dynamics
  • Mid-Week Market Update session with special guest @tastytrade's @tastytradeRyan starting now -- join here:
  • Indices Update: As of 13:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: France 40: 0.12% US 500: 0.09% Wall Street: 0.02% Germany 30: -0.17% FTSE 100: -0.22% View the performance of all markets via
  • RT @carlquintanilla: B of A: “The virus situation is improving rapidly and this has helped spur a pick-up in activity. .. Air travel contin…
  • $USD still holding support in the 93.43-93.73 zone shorter-term, not yet able to pose any meaningful continuation moves, still lower-lows, highs next r level, 94.17 next s level, 93.52 #DXY
  • 🇨🇦 Core Inflation Rate YoY (SEP) Actual: 3.7% Previous: 3.5%
US Dollar in Holding Pattern After Midterms, Ahead of FOMC Tomorrow

US Dollar in Holding Pattern After Midterms, Ahead of FOMC Tomorrow

Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Strategist

Talking Points:

- The DXY Index has whipped between gains and losses on Wednesday

- Without a new Summary of Economic Projections or a press conference for Fed Chair Powell, there is little reason to believe that policy will be changing.

- See the full DailyFX Webinar Calendar for upcoming strategy sessions pertaining to the November FOMC meeting.

Looking for longer-term forecasts on the US Dollar? Check out the DailyFX Trading Guides.

The US Dollar (via the DXY Index) has seen prices alternate between gains and losses on Wednesday as market participants digest the results of the 2018 US midterm elections. With the base case scenario having been achieved - Democrats controlling the House, Republicans controlling the Senate - reaction across financial markets has been limited.

If there is a surprise about the election results, it's the extent to which Republicans extended their majority in the Senate. Such gains portend to an environment that makes it more likely Republicans will also control the Senate after the 2020 elections. To this end, with the Trump tax plan largely to remain in place for the foreseeable future (years), US equity markets have been outperforming as the one of the major factors lead to strong earnings growth is likely to stay in place.

Otherwise, fiscal policy gridlock is coming. The only significant area of agreement between House Democrats and President Trump is infrastructure, but it's still a longshot that a deal can be reached after such a confrontational election season. Deregulation efforts may be slowed, but will ultimately continue as Trump-appointed agency heads will remain in place.

If you missed it, now that the midterm elections are in the rearview mirror, it's a good time to review the top charts and themes that will come back into focus as the calendar winds down into the end of the year.

Looking ahead to tomorrow, as far as FOMC meetings go, the November gathering should turn out to be one of the duller central bank rate decisions in 2018. Rates markets are pricing in a 1% chance of a 25-bps rate hike, effectively making the meeting a placeholder for future gatherings.

Fed Rate Hike Expections (November 7, 2018) (Table 1)

US Dollar in Holding Pattern After Midterms, Ahead of FOMC Tomorrow

The lack of anticipated action at the November meeting shouldn't be a surprise, as market participants have been classically conditioned by policymakers at the major central banks to only anticipate policy changes when new forecasts are in hand and the head of the central bank is afforded a press conference: November will yield neither of these; December will. Accordingly, there is a 78% chance of a 25-bps hike next month.

DXY Index Price Chart: Daily Timeframe (January to November 2018) (Chart 1)

US Dollar in Holding Pattern After Midterms, Ahead of FOMC Tomorrow

There seems little chance that the DXY Index's recent pause post-midterms will give way before the FOMC meeting tomorrow - and maybe not even thereafter. Momentum has stalled in recent days for the greenback. After hitting a fresh yearly high last week, price is sitting in the middle of its daily 8-, 13-, and 21-EMA envelope as a doji candle forms. For now, the uptrend from the September and October swing lows remains in place, but a close back above 96.16 would raise the odds of bullish developments in the coming days.

Read more: Markets After the US Midterms: Charts and Themes to Watch


Whether you are a new or experienced trader, DailyFX has multiple resources available to help you: an indicator for monitoring trader sentiment; quarterly trading forecasts; analytical and educational webinars held daily; trading guides to help you improve trading performance, and even one for those who are new to FX trading.

--- Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist

To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail

Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.