News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.



Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events


Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

Free Trading Guides
Oil - US Crude
Wall Street
More View more
Real Time News
  • *Reminder: Weekly Strategy Webinar tomorrow morning at 8:30am EDT on DailyFX!
  • EUR/USD fell sharply last week and there are few signs yet that the selling is over. However, a bounce is likely before the decline resumes. Get your #currencies update from @MartinSEssex here:
  • The week ahead has many systemic issues that take control of the markets, but scheduled data is heavily skewed to the Dollar. Here is my video for the week ahead:
  • GBP turbulence persists as investors eye the next round of EU-UK Brexit negotiations. Cautious optimism signals a deal is near. Get your #currencies update from @PaulRobinsonFX here:
  • The AB=CD pattern is simple once you know how to spot it and draw the proper Fibonacci retracements. Make your trading strategy as simple as ABCD here:
  • BoE’s Tenreyro says evidence on negative rates are “encouraging” Meanwhile, STOXX Europe Banks Index resides at all time lows
  • What is the outlook for financial markets ahead of the first presidential debate and how are Democratic nominee Joe Biden and President Donald Trump doing in the polls? Find out from @ZabelinDimitri here:
  • Anti-fiat #gold prices suffered the worst week since August as the US Dollar gained ground. Will losses extend? All eyes turn to fiscal stimulus hopes and non-farm payrolls data. Get your #metals update from @ddubrovskyFX here:
  • The US Dollar could gain as it forms bullish technical formations against the Singapore Dollar and Malaysian Ringgit. USD/PHP may have bottomed, will USD/IDR rise next? Find out from @ddubrovskyFX here:
  • What is seasonal change in volatility. Are we going through one right now? Find out:
US Dollar Working on Second Up Day in Two Weeks

US Dollar Working on Second Up Day in Two Weeks

2018-08-29 12:08:00
Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Strategist

Talking Points:

- The DXY Index is working on only its second day in the black in the past two weeks.

- Given scope of EUR/USD breakout and DXY Index breakdown, it's too soon to say the pain is over for the US Dollar.

- Retail traders are net-short EUR/USD, and net-long GBP/USD and USD/JPY.

See our longer-term forecasts for the US Dollar, Euro, British Pound and more with the DailyFX Trading Guides

The US Dollar (via the DXY Index) is gaining ground for only the second time in the past two weeks of trading as a lack of significant headlines regarding the United States' multi-front trade war have died down over the past 24-hours. While much attention has been paid to the apparent US-Mexico trade agreement, without Canadian consent and approval by US Congress, President Trump's best laid plans could go awry.

On the economic data front, the morning was mostly quiet in Europe, with both the September German GfK Consumer Confidence survey and the first revision to the Q2'18 French GDP figure landing right on expectations. The economic calendar in Europe will barely play a role the rest of the week either (no surprise considering its the last week of August, when Europe goes on holiday).

More pressure may come to the European currencies if attention swings back to Turkey, where the Turkish Lira has been falling again in recent days (USD/TRY is back above 6.40). Recall that the Euro is exposed to Turkish Lira weakness vis-à-vis the European banking system's unhedged exposure to Turkish borrowers.

Otherwise this morning attention will be on the first revision to the Q2'18 US GDP report. According to Bloomberg News, the consensus forecast calls for annualized headline growth due in at +4.0%, a barely discernible difference from +4.1% initially reported.

The GDP release poses asymmetrical risk for the US Dollar: if it meets or beats expectations, there is little to be gained by the greenback as Fed funds are already pricing in a 95% chance of a rate hike next month; if it misses expectations, even a small retracement in rate expectations could accentuate the recent dollar pullback.

DXY Index Price Chart: Daily Timeframe (July 2017 to August 2018) (Chart 1)

US Dollar Working on Second Up Day in Two Weeks

In the near-term for the DXY Index, price remains below its daily 8-, 13-, and 21-EMA envelope, while both daily MACD and Slow Stochastics continue to trend lower (with the former close to issuing a sell signal). Further losses should be anticipated until the July 26 bullish outside engulfing bar low is reached near 94.08; the short-term outlook is to sell US Dollar rallies.

Read more: DXY Index Slumps to Four-Week Low as EUR/USD Retakes 1.17


Whether you are a new or experienced trader, DailyFX has multiple resources available to help you: an indicator for monitoring trader sentiment; quarterly trading forecasts; analytical and educational webinars held daily; trading guides to help you improve trading performance, and even one for those who are new to FX trading.

--- Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist

To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail

Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.