Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events


Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

Free Trading Guides
Oil - US Crude
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Wall Street
More View more
Real Time News
  • Indices Update: As of 16:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: US 500: 1.33% Wall Street: 0.82% France 40: -0.07% Germany 30: -0.10% FTSE 100: -0.30% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#indices https://t.co/aeuc1S326s
  • Hey traders! What is driving the markets today? Find out from @DailyFX Chief Strategist @JohnKicklighter 👇 https://t.co/yC5XVJC5fY
  • Canadian #Dollar Outlook: $USDCAD Five Weeks Down, Five Month Low - https://t.co/O1op1wYcdT https://t.co/GaYTjFmjtc
  • White House Economic Advisor Larry Kudlow: -Data suggests economy only needs 'targeted money' -Thinks economy is entering a 'self-sustaining recovery' -Trump 'completely opposes' bailing out states $USD $TNX $SPX
  • FTSE 100 IG Client Sentiment: Our data shows traders are now net-short FTSE 100 for the first time since Jul 20, 2020 when FTSE 100 traded near 6,264.90. A contrarian view of crowd sentiment points to FTSE 100 strength. https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment https://t.co/iX4wB4HOah
  • Fed's Rosengren says the #Fed has been clear that negative interest rates are unlikely to be used
  • Back from vacation and back on schedule Going live for today's stock market webinar in 10 minutes - https://t.co/rmwDABTiN2 https://t.co/oC3Igu2muT
  • I've seen three more headlines today suggesting that there is significant money still on the sidelined despite the climb in markets. Is the assumption that some small tech milestone or new headline would excite investors to pay record amounts to get into a stretched market?
  • Forex Update: As of 14:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: 🇨🇭CHF: 0.57% 🇪🇺EUR: 0.41% 🇨🇦CAD: 0.40% 🇳🇿NZD: 0.14% 🇬🇧GBP: -0.16% 🇯🇵JPY: -0.43% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#currencies https://t.co/3mZjwCXcwc
DXY Index Hits Fresh Yearly High as China Wages Currency War

DXY Index Hits Fresh Yearly High as China Wages Currency War

2018-07-19 14:08:00
Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Strategist

Talking Points:

- Fed Chair Jerome Powell sounded hawkish yesterday and is likely to again at the House Financial Services Committee later on this morning.

- The DXY Index is less than a quarter of a percent from its yearly highs established in mid- to late-June around 95.53.

- Retail traders are starting to become more bearish on the US Dollar, which bodes well for its near-term outlook.

See our longer-term forecasts for the US Dollar, Euro, British Pound and more with the DailyFX Trading Guides

The US Dollar (via the DXY Index) reached fresh yearly highs today as traders continue to bid prices higher following Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's two days of testimony on Capitol Hill. With the Fed on the path of gradual rate hikes, markets are now pricing in 25-bps tightening efforts in both September (90%) and December (64%) this year.

But the most notable development over the past few days is not related to the Federal Reserve, but a different central bank: the People's Bank of China. The offshore USD/CNH rate hit a new yearly high itself today, its high exchange rate since July 12, 2017, amid a fresh wave of stimulus by the PBOC.

By using its medium-term loan facility (MLF) to help provide liquidity to banks, the PBOC is essentially rolling out its own quantitative easing program. In effect, the policy loosening effort serves another purpose: it weakens the Chinese Yuan.

While the China-US trade war appears to be morphing into a war of attrition, with both sides racking up casualties and without a clear end goal in sight for the tensions. But by allowing USD/CNH to appreciate rapidly, the PBOC is sending a clear signal to market participants that it intends to use its currency as a tool to buffer the economy from the negative impact of tariffs.

For now, China is winning the currency war, with USD/CNH sitting at its highest level in over a year, and the DXY Index in a similar position. (Yes, winning the currency war means having your currency emerge as the weakest.) A look at the technical picture since early-2017 for the US Dollar reveals that more gains may be coming.

DXY Index Price Chart: Daily Timeframe (January 2017 to July 2018) (Chart 1)

DXY Index Hits Fresh Yearly High as China Wages Currency War

The DXY Index has been clear of both descending trendlines emanating from the January 2017 high as of this past May. Price action since mid-May has been more or less directionless, perhaps a consequence of an overly bullish market seeking a period of consolidation ahead of the next leg higher. The ascending triangle that's been forming over the past eight weeks suggests a continuation effort to the topside is gathering pace.

DXY Index Price Chart: Daily Timeframe (July 2017 to July 2018) (Chart 1)

DXY Index Hits Fresh Yearly High as China Wages Currency War

The US Dollar's (via DXY Index) technical posture continues to improve now that price is clearly above its daily 8-, 13-, and 21-EMAs. Both daily MACD and Slow Stochastics have confirmed 'buy' signasl in bullish territory after price developments through the first three days of the week.

A breakout resulting from the bullish ascending triangle forming would only be valid given a move through the June 21 bearish daily key reversal and June 27 to 29 evening doji star candle cluster highs at 95.53 - the key level to watch for through the end of this week.

Read more: DXY Index Eyes Breakout Opportunity to Fresh Yearly Highs


Whether you are a new or experienced trader, DailyFX has multiple resources available to help you: an indicator for monitoring trader sentiment; quarterly trading forecasts; analytical and educational webinars held daily; trading guides to help you improve trading performance, and even one for those who are new to FX trading.

--- Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist

To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com

Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.


News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.