News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
EUR/USD
Bearish
Oil - US Crude
Mixed
Wall Street
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Gold
Mixed
GBP/USD
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
USD/JPY
Bullish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
More View more
Real Time News
  • Get your snapshot update of the of relative currency strength and exchange status from around the globe here: https://t.co/H19vRDCpUJ https://t.co/S74APOiQ3y
  • Two of the main Euro-pairs, $EURUSD and $EURGBP, are being driven by very different drivers. Get your market update from @nickcawley1 here: https://t.co/Vd32Y6HKEr https://t.co/Lgb5z5V1Xa
  • Recessions can devastate the economy and disrupt the fortunes of individuals, businesses, and investors. But economic decline in the business cycle is inevitable, and your trading can be defined by how you respond to crisis. learn how to prepare here: https://t.co/e4CnobJCss https://t.co/9uPXNvDBS5
  • We ended this past week with another cliffhanger. The $SPX teeters on the edge of a breakdown from the post-pandemic recovery. While we have NFPs and other key data ahead, the markets are likely to remain fixated on yields. My outlook for next week: https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/video/daily_news_report/2021/02/27/SP-500-Dollar-Reversal-Hinge-Not-On-NFPs-but-Markets-Risk-Imagination.html?ref-author=Kicklighter&QPID=917719&CHID=9 https://t.co/mlNDDyTgex
  • Make smart trading decisions with your free guide to trade the news. Download your free guide here.https://t.co/pb5E2KgRzW #DailyFXGuides https://t.co/70ZOJ0ZMwF
  • Looking for a new way to trade reversals? One of the most used reversal candle patterns is known as the Harami. Like most candlestick formation patterns, the Harami tells a story about sentiment in the market. Get better with trading reversals here: https://t.co/rfwUWJfbz9 https://t.co/SyroornFf5
  • MACD who? The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is a technical indicator which simply measures the relationship of exponential moving averages (EMA). Find out how you can incorporate MACD into your trading strategy here: https://t.co/ZNs4QhQGQ6 https://t.co/KrMcyZZqO7
  • The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) rate decision may spark a bullish reaction in $AUDUSD as the central bank is expected to retain the current course for monetary policy. Get your market update from @DavidJSong here: https://t.co/WbcR9ER0qT https://t.co/TynsqCtPQ6
  • Gold has broken below a critical support confluence we’ve been tracking for months now and the risk remains for further losses while below this threshold in the weeks ahead. Get your $XAUUSD market update from @MBForex here:https://t.co/xgN2obaIWR https://t.co/H71ufPNkPg
  • Knowing how to accurately value a stock enables traders to identify and take advantage of opportunities in the stock market. Find out the difference between a stock's market and intrinsic value, and the importance of the two here: https://t.co/QszmdZFxlk https://t.co/Evr5KgUjVo
Gold Price Outlook Fails to Turn Bullish, Downside Resolution Possible

Gold Price Outlook Fails to Turn Bullish, Downside Resolution Possible

Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Strategist

Talking Points:

- Gold prices continue to consolidate around 1300, just below key resistance which overcome would signal a short-term bullish outlook.

- Price is currently squeezing between the downtrend from the April 2018 high and the uptrend from the December 2016 and December 2017 lows.

- Retail traders have become increasingly net-long Gold over the past week, suggesting that downside is more likely in the near-term.

Looking to learn more about how central banks impact FX markets? Check out the DailyFX Trading Guides.

Ongoing strength by the US Dollar coupled with a rebound in US Treasury yields has made for a choppy trading environment for Gold. Since our last update, the DXY Index pullback has stalled around 94.00, while the US Treasury 10-year yield has jumped back above 2.900%. Neither has proven particularly helpful in Gold's attempt to revitalize its bullish momentum.

Gold Price: Daily Timeframe (November 2016 to June 2018) (Chart 1)

Gold Price Outlook Fails to Turn Bullish, Downside Resolution Possible

Price is currently squeezing between the downtrend from the April 2018 high and the uptrend from the December 2016 and December 2017 lows. But for today's candle, price action has been relatively muted in recent days, with Gold holding below its daily 8-, 13-, and 21-EMA envelope.

Gold Price: Daily Timeframe (December 2017 to June 2018) (Chart 2)

Gold Price Outlook Fails to Turn Bullish, Downside Resolution Possible

Failure by Gold to reestablish itself through 1307.65 (mid-May swing high) suggests that the downtrend since the April (and 2018) high may not be over yet. Both MACD and Slow Stochastics remain in bearish territory and their respective rebounds appear to be fading.

Given this backdrop, Gold's near-term outlook is neutral, however, it would turn bullish again above 1307.65 or turn fully bearish below 1281.99, the May 2018 low (which would subsequently yield a break of the December 2016 and December 2017 uptrend).

US Treasury 10-year Yield: Daily Timeframe (August 2017 to June 2018) (Chart 3)

Gold Price Outlook Fails to Turn Bullish, Downside Resolution Possible

The next directional move by US Treasury yields may contain the key to the Gold price outlook evolving beyond neutral. Yields have quickly returned higher in recent days, which has made for a more difficult environment for bullion.

Accordingly, the odds of Gold price breaking down would increase should the US Treasury 10-year yield retake the uptrend in rates dating back to September 2017; a move above 2.950% would be especially concerning for Gold.

Read more: DXY Index Turns Higher on Back of Mixed European PMIs

FX TRADING RESOURCES

Whether you are a new or experienced trader, DailyFX has multiple resources available to help you: an indicator for monitoring trader sentiment; quarterly trading forecasts; analytical and educational webinars held daily; trading guides to help you improve trading performance, and even one for those who are new to FX trading.

--- Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist

To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com

Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES