We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

Free Trading Guides
EUR/USD
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Oil - US Crude
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Wall Street
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Gold
Bullish
GBP/USD
Mixed
USD/JPY
Bullish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
More View more
Real Time News
  • Amid escalating China tension, Australian Dollar risk reversals indicate that the bullish bias recently enjoyed by AUD/USD could soon unwind and pressure spot prices back lower. Get your $AUDUSD technical analysis from @RichDvorakFX here: https://t.co/ZAHEwxNrEW https://t.co/gWt401EkQI
  • Forex Update: As of 20:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: 🇪🇺EUR: 0.62% 🇬🇧GBP: 0.50% 🇨🇭CHF: 0.42% 🇦🇺AUD: 0.21% 🇯🇵JPY: 0.09% 🇨🇦CAD: -0.08% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#currencies https://t.co/Gn0ub8TS6e
  • #Gold prices have continued to push higher as expectations have built for global Central Banks to remain very loose and passive with monetary policy for the foreseeable future. Get your $XAUUSD technical analysis from @JStanleyFX here: https://t.co/h5tF3kAZfd https://t.co/gVU4QoQjnv
  • White House says that Trump and Macron talked about COVID-19 and holding G7 meeting in person - BBG
  • Commodities Update: As of 20:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Silver: 0.77% Gold: 0.58% Oil - US Crude: -0.14% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#commodities https://t.co/0LgQROzxEj
  • Is there? Tough assertion to back up... https://t.co/I0TLitj21j
  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in Ripple are long at 96.91%, while traders in US 500 are at opposite extremes with 76.25%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX: https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment https://t.co/JWJfhVeAZH
  • RT @FedResearch: New #IFDPPaper shows how currency hedging links global imbalances to exchange rate determination, cross-currency basis and…
  • $AUD $AUDUSD | Australian Dollar Risk Reversals Slump as China Tension Heats Up (via @DailyFX) -Aussie bulls undermined by stalling call/put skew readings -Daunting confluence of technical resistance near 0.67 a threat Link to More: https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/market_alert/2020/05/28/audusd-aud-usd-price-outlook-australian-dollar-risk-reversals-slump-china-tension.html #FX #Forex #Trading https://t.co/Ra4EJHsyib
  • Indices Update: As of 20:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Wall Street: 0.03% US 500: 0.02% FTSE 100: -0.77% France 40: -0.99% Germany 30: -1.14% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#indices https://t.co/UeSGpYKUzb
US Dollar Holds Ground as Risk Sentiment Slides, Eurozone Data Weakens

US Dollar Holds Ground as Risk Sentiment Slides, Eurozone Data Weakens

2018-04-03 12:13:00
Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Strategist
Share:

Talking Points:

- Concerns regarding a potential US-China trade war and a snag in NAFTA negotiations have hit global equity markets at the start of the week.

- Further deterioration in Eurozone data has weighed on EUR/USD this morning.

- Sentiment for the US Dollar remains negative as the new quarter gets under way.

For longer-term technical and fundamental analysis, and to view DailyFX analysts’ top trading ideas for 2018, check out the DailyFX Trading Guides page.

The US Dollar (via the DXY Index) has proven sturdy at the start of the new month and quarter as European markets have come online for the first time since last Thursday. Reinvigorated tensions between China and the US thanks to a series of comments by US President Trump have hit global equity markets again, with tech stocks in the US selling off particularly hard.

The news wire is likely to be the prime source of event risk during the North American trading session today as the economic calendar is rather dry for Canada, Mexico, and the United States. While more incendiary comments regarding NAFTA have crossed the wires, they've had little impact on pairs like USD/CAD and USD/MXN thus far. Attention and concerns is more focused on US-China trade tensions than NAFTA, it would reason.

Elsewhere, deterioration in the preliminary March Eurozone PMI figures - perhaps weighed by the strong Euro itself - have allowed EUR/USD to stay pointed to the downside, if only minorly. The Eurozone Citi Economic Surprise Index, a gauge of economic data momentum, now sits at a disparaging -56.8, down from its 2018 high of +59.7 on January 11.

Price Chart 1: DXY Index Daily Timeframe (September 2017 to April 2018)

US Dollar Holds Ground as Risk Sentiment Slides, Eurozone Data Weakens

The global equity market sell-off yesterday, led by stock markets in the United States, coupled with weakening Eurozone data, may be helping keep the US Dollar afloat as April and Q2'18 trading gets under way. The DXY Index has been holding above its daily 21-EMA for the past few sessions, but remains within the descending channel established with the bearish daily key reversal on March 1.

Even in the event of a break out of the down channel from March 1, it would not be a reason to call a bottom in the DXY Index yet. While price is no longer trading within the downtrend from the December 2017 and January 2018 swing highs, price still remains below 91.01, the 2017 low set on September 8 (which subsequently marked a morning doji star candle cluster failure in mid-January as well as the March 1 key reversal).

Similarly, given that trading is not only a function of price but also of time, the DXY Index would need to contend with the descending trendline from the November and December 2017 highs once it reached 91.01 before any legitimate low could be called. Given the current market environment, it would appear that the coming March US Nonfarm Payrolls report (and knock-on effects to Fed funds rate pricing) would not be the catalyst to drive such price action; instead, a further tightening of financial conditions and erosion in risk sentiment would be necessary.

Read more: A War to Trade More, Not Less - What’s Behind US-China Tariffs

FX TRADING RESOURCES

Whether you are a new or experienced trader, DailyFX has multiple resources available to help you: an indicator for monitoring trader sentiment; quarterly trading forecasts; analytical and educational webinars held daily; trading guides to help you improve trading performance, and even one for those who are new to FX trading.

--- Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist

To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com

Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX

To be added to Christopher's e-mail distribution list, please fill out this form

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES

News & Analysis at your fingertips.