News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
EUR/USD
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Oil - US Crude
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Wall Street
Mixed
Gold
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
GBP/USD
Mixed
USD/JPY
Mixed
More View more
Real Time News
  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in Ripple are long at 96.61%, while traders in EUR/USD are at opposite extremes with 69.17%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX: https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment https://t.co/4I6evWndsv
  • There is a great debate about which type of analysis is better for a trader. Is it better to be a fundamental trader or a technical trader? Find out here: https://t.co/aVAzFypAg1 https://t.co/afeXKfZT4K
  • 🇷🇺 Interest Rate Decision Actual: 4.25% Expected: 4.25% Previous: 4.25% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2020-10-23
  • Commodities Update: As of 10:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Oil - US Crude: 0.43% Gold: 0.29% Silver: 0.05% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#commodities https://t.co/joUZve1zxA
  • Forex Update: As of 10:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: 🇦🇺AUD: 0.44% 🇳🇿NZD: 0.36% 🇨🇭CHF: 0.32% 🇯🇵JPY: 0.20% 🇨🇦CAD: 0.17% 🇬🇧GBP: 0.02% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#currencies https://t.co/jitwr50kLY
  • Heads Up:🇷🇺 Interest Rate Decision due at 10:30 GMT (15min) Expected: 4.25% Previous: 4.25% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2020-10-23
  • Indices Update: As of 10:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: FTSE 100: 1.38% France 40: 1.05% Germany 30: 0.78% Wall Street: 0.26% US 500: 0.22% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#indices https://t.co/T1eJUg4Xb4
  • There are many different types of forex orders, which traders use to manage their trades. While these may vary between different brokers, there tends to be several basic FX order types all brokers accept. Learn about different FX order types here: https://t.co/lIJdiz4xSz https://t.co/40yHBdRDXx
  • Irish Foreign Minister says the issues that are preventing a Brexit deal being finalised are very much still there $GBP
  • There are three major forex trading sessions which comprise the 24-hour market: the London session, the US session and the Asian session. Learn about the characteristics of each session here: https://t.co/UVvf51HiVP https://t.co/cLrTN3ezxf
US Dollar Posture Continues to Improve; PCE Core, Powell Due Up

US Dollar Posture Continues to Improve; PCE Core, Powell Due Up

2018-03-01 12:45:00
Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Strategist
Share:

Talking Points

- New Fed Chair Jerome Powell is widely expected to express continuity of the monetary policy trajectory set in place by former Chair Janet Yellen.

- Markets are pricing in less than a 1% move in EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, and Gold around today's testimony.

- Retail trader sentiment suggests a mixed trading environment for the US Dollar.

Volatility is back. It's time to review the Traits of Successful Traders series to stay grounded with the tenets of risk management.

The US Dollar (via DXY Index) bottoming efforts continue to take steps forward, with price now at its highest level since January 18. Earlier this week, the DXU Index closed above two key trend levels yesterday: the downtrend from the December 18, January 11, and now February 21 highs; as well as the descending channel top off of the January 17 and February 8 highs.

The improving technical posture has the DXY's sight set on 91.01, the former 2017 low and swing high in mid-January. A weekly close through said level would confirm a near-term bottom for the US Dollar.

Price Chart 1: DXY Index Daily Timeframe (August 2017 to February 2018)

US Dollar Posture Continues to Improve; PCE Core, Powell Due Up

Traders should continue to look at USD-pairs on a case-by-case basis given that a broad bearish bias is no longer applicable. EUR/USD is in focus, which constitutes 57.6% of the DXY Index. A close through 91.01 in DXY, where there was a failed morning doji star candle cluster between January 15-17, corresponds with a move below 1.2365 in EUR/USD, where there was a failed evening doji start candle cluster during that same period in mid-January.

We'll be watching for two things in today's session. First, Fed Chair Jerome Powell is set to climb Capitol Hill again today to testify in front of the Senate. Following his comments on Tuesday, the US Dollar gained (with US stocks falling) as the prospect for a faster pace of rate hikes were made clear. Now, the odds of a fourth rate hike in 2018 have risen to 37%.

Table 1: Fed Funds Futures Implied Rate Path

US Dollar Posture Continues to Improve; PCE Core, Powell Due Up

The other item of interest today is the Core PCE report. According to a Bloomberg News survey, US consumer prices were higher on a monthly-basis in January, although price pressures remain weak. The Fed’s preferred gauge of inflation, the PCE Core, is due in at +0.3% from +0.2% (m/m) and +1.5% unch (y/y). The expectation for a reaction depends largely on the perception that the Fed will either accelerate or decelerate their current path of projected rate hikes.

As noted in the January FOMC meeting minutes, "Members agreed that the strengthening in the near-term economic outlook increased the likelihood that a gradual upward trajectory of the federal funds rate would be appropriate.” It would appear that traders hoping for a catalyst for a stronger US Dollar are better off looking elsewhere.

Read more: US Dollar Bottoming Effort Takes a Step Forward

In an environment where volatility has picked up, it is absolutely imperative that traders adjust their risk management perspective. If you haven't yet, it's the right time to review the Traits of Successful Traders series in order to become reacquainted with the tenets of risk management.

--- Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist

To contact Christopher, email him at cvecchio@dailyfx.com.

Follow him in the DailyFX Real Time News feed and Twitter at @CVecchioFX.

To receive this analyst’s reports, sign up for his distribution list.

Don’t trade FX but want to learn more? Read the DailyFX Trading Guides.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES