News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
EUR/USD
Bullish
Oil - US Crude
Bearish
Wall Street
Bullish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Gold
Bearish
GBP/USD
Bullish
USD/JPY
Mixed
More View more
Real Time News
  • Gold slightly lower as equities, dollar put in mixed sessions $XAU $USD $DXY https://t.co/37c9N2gzgh
  • The $VIX can't continue to trace out this coasting pattern for long. Again, I don't usually throw technical analysis on indicators derived from underlying activity, but VIX has become a trading vehicle in its own right https://t.co/qBvMeOCmmW
  • Commodities Update: As of 19:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Silver: 0.31% Oil - US Crude: -0.08% Gold: -0.32% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#commodities https://t.co/DpPoyNP5hl
  • After a strong breakout this summer, Gold prices have now spent almost six months digesting. Get your $XAUUSD market update from @JStanleyFX here:https://t.co/H7k5kv4N5i https://t.co/shvReKpe1U
  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in Ripple are long at 100.00%, while traders in Germany 30 are at opposite extremes with 70.32%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX: https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment https://t.co/ivQLPokYOs
  • The US Dollar is now trading lower again. After hitting an intraday low around 90.15, the $DXY rebounded to 90.25 but has turned toward again, falling back below 90.20. $USD https://t.co/xyglMBmakL
  • Indices Update: As of 19:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: France 40: 0.14% Wall Street: 0.06% US 500: 0.03% Germany 30: 0.02% FTSE 100: -0.00% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#indices https://t.co/SbFlX1iTdj
  • #Gold is consolidating slightly higher this week, around $1,850, after the precious metal's failed attempt at breaking above the $1,870 level last week. $XAU $GLD https://t.co/MyeWiBSQZR
  • US 10yr yields have notably tightened, falling from 1.10% yesterday to trade around 1.04% today. Yields still remain elevated in 2021 compared to earlier in the pandemic. $GOVT $IEF $USD https://t.co/uT27KDUkhM
  • Hey traders! Get your Tuesday market update from @DailyFX Chief Strategist @JohnKicklighter 👇 https://t.co/WPk9aapKhs
USD/CAD Needs a Hawkish BOC For Losses to Continue

USD/CAD Needs a Hawkish BOC For Losses to Continue

Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Strategist

Talking Points:

- Overnight index swaps point to north of an 85% chance of a rate move today by the Bank of Canada, a near guarantee for a hike.

- Accordingly, the BOC will need to offer hawkish forward guidance - implying that at least two more rate hikes this year are possible - in order to keep the Canadian Dollar on its hot streak to start 2018.

- Retail trader sentiment points to a bearish trading environment for most USD-pairs.

Upcoming Webinars for Week of January 14 to 19, 2018

Today at 9:45 EST/14:45 GMT: Live Data Coverage: BOC Rate Decision

Thursday at 7:30 EST/12:30 GMT: Central Bank Weekly

See the full DailyFX Webinar Calendar for other upcoming strategy sessions

The US Dollar (via DXY Index) has seen its losses stabilize over the past 24-hours, thanks in part to disappointing December CPI readings out of the UK and the Euro-Zone. While these inflation data won't necessarily be the catalyst for calling the top in EUR/USD or GBP/USD, they are offering traders enough of a reason to momentarily reconsider their positioning; any losses henceforth would be profit taking.

Whereas the impact of the inflation data on BOE or ECB policy is minimal at this point in time - and to be clear, none of the data revealed over the past 24-hours will move the needle for the BOE or the ECB - we will get to see the realization of other speculative trends in the market with the Bank of Canada rate decision today.

The Canadian Dollar has had a strong start versus the US Dollar in 2018, mainly due to rapidly escalating BOC rate hike expectations. After the December 6 policy meeting, overnight index swaps were pricing in a 35% chance of a January rate hike. Entering today, the January rate hike odds have climbed above 85%. The reasons are two-fold: the last two inflation reports and the last two employment reports have been much better than anticipated.

As such, the rate hike odds for the BOC meeting still needing to converge at 100% when the rate hike is actualized. While this means a retest of the yearly lows for USD/CAD near 1.2350 could be on the horizon, it also means that the BOC will have to offer additional hawkish forward guidance on rates (i.e. suggesting that another rate hike could happen by June to keep the BOC on track for a minimum of three this year) to provoke a move down to fresh yearly lows. In fact, without explicity suggesting that three hikes are coming in 2018, the Canadian Dollar may unwind its early year gains versus the US Dollar.

Read more: USD Sell Off Hits Pause as Government Shutdown Looms

--- Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist

To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com

Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX

To be added to Christopher's e-mail distribution list, please fill out this form

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES