News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
EUR/USD
Bullish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Oil - US Crude
Bullish
Wall Street
Bullish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Gold
Bearish
GBP/USD
Mixed
USD/JPY
Mixed
More View more
Real Time News
  • Heads Up:🇬🇧 BoE Credit Conditions Survey due at 08:30 GMT (15min) https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2021-04-15
  • 🇪🇸 Balance of Trade (FEB) Actual: €-1.082B Previous: €-1.769B https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2021-04-15
  • 🇮🇹 Inflation Rate YoY Final (MAR) Actual: 0.8% Expected: 0.8% Previous: 0.6% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2021-04-15
  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in Silver are long at 92.93%, while traders in France 40 are at opposite extremes with 75.22%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX: https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment https://t.co/F80m5ro5O1
  • Heads Up:🇪🇸 Balance of Trade (FEB) due at 08:00 GMT (15min) Previous: €-1.769B https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2021-04-15
  • Heads Up:🇮🇹 Inflation Rate YoY Final (MAR) due at 08:00 GMT (15min) Expected: 0.8% Previous: 0.6% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2021-04-15
  • German Health Minister says Germany will have 20% of population vaccinated by the end of April $EUR
  • $NZD at a 3-1/2 week high, paring the drop that stemmed from recently announced NZ housing measures https://t.co/ocdA74ucmI
  • (Oil Briefing) Crude Oil Price Outlook: Aiming for February Peak Ahead of US Retail Sales #CrudeOil #WTI #EIA https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/fundamental/daily_briefing/daily_pieces/commodities/2021/04/15/Crude-Oil-Price-Outlook-Aiming-for-February-Peak-Ahead-of-US-Retail-Sales.html?CHID=9&QPID=917702&utm_source=Twitter&utm_medium=Dubrovsky&utm_campaign=twr https://t.co/ynLW9Tlcyt
  • The Dow Jones Industrial Average of blue-chip stocks is likely to outperform the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 if worries about inflation force the Fed to trim stimulus sooner than expected. Get your market update from @IlyaSpivak here:https://t.co/G0F0MUOOtw https://t.co/uNqlJSvjho
US Dollar Outlook and Preview for September NFPs

US Dollar Outlook and Preview for September NFPs

Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Strategist

Talking Points:

- Ahead of the US jobs data today, rates markets are pricing in over an 80% chance of a Fed rate hike in December.

- Expectations for the headline NFP figure are so low because of the impact of Hurricanes Harvey and Irma on the southeastern United States.

- Retail trader sentiment continues to shift in a way that suggest USD-pairs may still turn higher.

Upcoming Webinars for Week of October 1 to October 6, 2017

Friday at 8:15 EDT/12:15 GMT: US NFPs (SEP) Round Table Coverage

See the full DailyFX Webinar Calendar for other upcoming strategy sessions

The US Dollar (via DXY Index) is trading near its highest level in a month ahead of the the September US Nonfarm Payrolls report this morning. Price action remains bullish for the DXY Index, holding above its daily 8-, 13-, and 21-EMAs; and with both MACD and Stochastics continue to trend higher above their respective signal or neutral lines. Prior to the US jobs data today, Fed funds futures are pricing north of an 80% chance of a hike by December.

Current expectations for today's data remain are modest, even after better than expected ADP and ISM Services figures earlier in the week, with the unemployment rate expected to hold at 4.4%, and the headline jobs figure to come in at +80K. Wage growth is due in around +2.5% y/y. Using a 10-year rolling model, the ADP report and the ISM Services report can account for 89% of the changes in the NFP figure (R^2 = 0.89). In sum, these proximal trackers of the US labor market correspond with pace of jobs growth between +125 to +150K.

Why do these figures appear to be far below recent trends? Hurricanes Harvey and Irma that made landfall in the southeastern United States will have a negative impact on job creation figures. The forthcoming report this morning may offer little if any meaningful insight into trends underlying the US labor market.

The big picture: so long as it comes in above +75K to +125K, the jobs data will be good enough to keep the economy on track to maintain the unemployment rate (U3) at 4.3% through the end of 2017 (as per Fed Chair Janet Yellen's commentary at the end of February). The Atlanta Fed Jobs Calculator shows that the US economy needs to add +113K jobs each month for the rest of 2017 to maintain the unemployment rate at 4.4%.

From this point of view, the US Dollar's bullish posture should remain intact heading into next week, regardless of what the September US Nonfarm Payrolls report reveals.

See the above video for technical considerations in the DXY Index, EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, AUD/USD, USD/CHF, Gold, and US yields.

Read more: DXY Index Posture Remains Bullish Ahead of US NFPs Tomorrow

--- Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist

To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com

Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX

To be added to Christopher's e-mail distribution list, please fill out this form

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES