News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site. See our updated Privacy Policy here.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
Wall Street
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
More View more
Real Time News
  • Forex quotes reflect the price of different currencies at any point in time. Since a trader’s profit or loss is determined by movements in price, it is essential to develop a sound understanding of how to read currency pairs. Learn how to read quotes here: https://t.co/CNtqrKWDBY https://t.co/stMPuq0VXR
  • A currency carry trade involves borrowing a low-yielding currency in order to buy a higher yielding currency in an attempt to profit from the interest rate differential. Find out if the carry trade suits your trading style here: https://t.co/7t4BzmLg8w https://t.co/v6RGICQvge
  • Get your snapshot update of the of top level exchanges and key index performance from around the globe here: https://t.co/d8Re5anlG5 https://t.co/rws9LHJV3E
  • RT @FxWestwater: Japanese Yen Forecast: JPY Crosses Eye BoJ, CPI as Haven Flows Bolster Yen Strength Link: https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/fundamental/forecast/weekly/jpy/2021/09/18/Japanese-Yen-Forecast-JPY-Crosses-Eye-BoJ-CPI-as-Haven-Flows-Bolster-Yen-Strength.html?CHID=9&QPID=917708&utm_source=Twitter&utm_medium=Westwater&utm_campaign=twr https:/…
  • Traders utilize varying time frames to speculate in the forex market. The two most common are long- and short-term-time frames which transmits through to trend and trigger charts. Learn more about time-frame analysis here: https://t.co/9S5tXIs3SX https://t.co/FVisZuTP6M
  • Stocks appear to be in a corrective phase but could get put to the test; levels and lines to watch in the days ahead. Get your weekly equities forecast from @PaulRobinsonFX here: https://t.co/H1BaTlIHjY https://t.co/zP3mjfslSD
  • Currency exchange rates are impacted by several factors. Are different world leaders a contributing factor? Find out here: https://t.co/4jsORznRTE https://t.co/Of1thU4zXw
  • Further your forex knowledge and gain insights from our expert analysts on AUD with our free guide, available today: https://t.co/p2FhEwym1E https://t.co/MjiYB85TSF
  • Many people are attracted to forex trading due to the amount of leverage that brokers provide. Leverage allows traders to gain more exposure in financial markets than what they are required to pay for. Learn about FX leverage here: https://t.co/BdgFmkRxVw https://t.co/fIO9TP7D62
  • Trading Forex is not a shortcut to instant wealth, excessive leverage can magnify losses, and sentiment is a powerful indicator. Learn about these principles in depth here: https://t.co/lZFM8youtX https://t.co/Xja8DHUqlH
US Dollar Off the Lows, but Has Yet to Bottom

US Dollar Off the Lows, but Has Yet to Bottom

Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Strategist

Talking Points:

- GBP/USD weakness continues to develop within the confines of its bearish rising wedge, but EUR/USD resiliency and USD/JPY weakness have held back the DXY Index thus far.

- Volatility in FX markets likely going to be the highest on Friday this week, when we'll hear from both ECB President Mario Draghi and Fed Chair Janet Yellen.

- Retail crowd positioning continues to moderate in EUR/USD, GBP/USD as the US Dollar attempts to establish a turn.

Upcoming Webinars for Week of August 20 to August 25, 2017

Thursday at 7:30 EDT/11:30 GMT: Central Bank Weekly

See the full DailyFX Webinar Calendar for other upcoming strategy sessions

The US Dollar (via the DXY Index) has traded sideways for the better part of the past week, breaking the downtrend from late-June but, thus far, has also failed to establish a convincing bounce off the lows. GBP/USD's bearish rising wedge continues to develop, but EUR/USD resiliency and USD/JPY weakness have held back the DXY Index thus far.

Going into the Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium between Thursday and Saturday, it appears there is a small opening for the US Dollar to gather some policy momentum to carry it higher versus its major counterparts, particularly the Euro (and given that the Euro is 57.6% of the DXY Index, this could have implications for the US Dollar bottoming process).

Ahead of time, it looks like ECB President Draghi’s upcoming speech at the Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium will be a case of ‘buy the rumor, sell the news’ after developments last week. While the July ECB meeting minutes didn’t offer new insight into recent market developments, a leak on Tuesday started to shape expectations for ECB President Draghi’s speech this coming Friday. Indeed, as we’ve speculated in recent weekly trading forecasts, it finally appears that the ECB may be starting to become concerned with persistent Euro strength.

Accordingly, the key resistance that we outlined a week ago as being a necessary precondition for the DXY Index to clear before we can say the US Dollar has bottomed remains in place: the July 26 outside engulfing bar swing high at 94.29.

Only at this point, the series of 'lower highs and lower lows' since the end of June would be broken, and in context of sentiment and positioning (which according to the CFTC's COT report, is the most bearish US Dollar six years), would suggest that we've seen the exhaustion low.

See the above video for technical considerations in the DXY Index, EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, EUR/JPY, GBP/JPY, the S&P 500, and Gold.

Read more: Euro, US Dollar Set for Important Week with Jackson Hole in Sight

--- Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist

To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com

Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX

To be added to Christopher's e-mail distribution list, please fill out this form

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES