News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
EUR/USD
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Oil - US Crude
Mixed
Wall Street
Mixed
Gold
Mixed
GBP/USD
Bearish
USD/JPY
Bullish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
More View more
Real Time News
  • The continuity seen across these volatility cycles is a good thing. Historical precedence offer a blueprint for identifying conditions supportive for a vol-event to occur, and how they may unfold. Deepen your knowledge of historical volatility here: https://t.co/vg7w10la3j https://t.co/xeidoj2K9f
  • The non-farm payroll (NFP) figure is a key economic indicator for the United States economy. It is also referred to as the monthly market mover. Find out why it has been given this nickname here: https://t.co/yOUVEEqhc5 https://t.co/1rhLp4LnfN
  • Knowing how to accurately value a stock enables traders to identify and take advantage of opportunities in the stock market. Find out the difference between a stock's market and intrinsic value, and the importance of the two here: https://t.co/QszmdZFxlk https://t.co/RKYGzRStvL
  • The US Dollar is moving higher after a blowout NFP report bolstered confidence in the US economic recovery. Markets will now turn attention to next week’s US inflation data which could boost the Greenback. Get your market alert from @FxWestwater here: https://t.co/Ud62r3hKRF https://t.co/dvvDCJvlbP
  • GDP (Gross Domestic Product) economic data is deemed highly significant in the forex market. GDP figures are used as an indicator by fundamentalists to gauge the overall health and potential growth of a country. Learn use GDP data to your advantage here: https://t.co/Yl9vM7kO6a https://t.co/7g9pB8D9xK
  • The Federal Reserve System (the Fed) was founded in 1913 by the United States Congress. The Fed’s actions and policies have a major impact on currency value, affecting many trades involving the US Dollar. Learn more about the Fed here: https://t.co/ADSC4sIHrP https://t.co/OCLzmXaDCu
  • Technical analysis of charts aims to identify patterns and market trends by utilising differing forms of technical chart types and other chart functions. Learn about the top three technical analysis tools here: https://t.co/KDjIjLdTSk https://t.co/UZela9nSIm
  • The ISM manufacturing index plays an important role in forex trading, with ISM data influencing currency prices globally. Learn about the importance of the ISM manufacturing index here: https://t.co/Xr3xtoFpZy https://t.co/7oqC3ykBbU
  • Traders utilize varying time frames to speculate in the forex market. The two most common are long- and short-term-time frames which transmits through to trend and trigger charts. Learn more about time-frame analysis here: https://t.co/9S5tXIs3SX https://t.co/IgUIG55MbH
  • Supply constraints, rebounding global demand and rising inflation expectations may drive crude oil prices higher in the near term. Get your market update from @DanielGMoss here: https://t.co/ezPoAwcJt7 https://t.co/NMfk1cYSvE
Euro Rallies on Draghi Commentary; Dollar Waits on Yellen

Euro Rallies on Draghi Commentary; Dollar Waits on Yellen

Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Strategist

Talking Points:

- DXY Index trades to lowest levels since June FOMC meeting after ECB President Draghi issues hawkish commentary on inflation.

- Fed Chair Yellen to speak at 17 GMT today; a round of hawkish commentary could help reverse intraday US Dollar losses.

- The retail crowd is still net-short AUD/USD, EUR/USD, GBP/USD, and net-long USD/JPY, although positioning has abated in recent days.

Upcoming Webinars for Week of June 25 to June 30, 2017

Wednesday at 6:00 EDT/10:00 GMT: Weekly Trading Q&A

Thursday at 7:30 EDT/11:30 GMT: Central Bank Weekly

See the full DailyFX Webinar Calendar for all upcoming strategy sessions.

The Euro is the top performing major currency as the page turns to North America thanks to the perception of hawkish commentary from European Central Bank President Mario Draghi. As the largest constituent of the DXY Index, Euro strength has translated into DXY weakness, which has now erased all of its gains since the June 14 FOMC meeting.

"A constant policy stance will become more accommodative, and the central bank can accompany the recovery by adjusting the parameters of its policy instruments – not in order to tighten the policy stance, but to keep it broadly unchanged," said the ECB chief. This has been interpreted as a signal that the ECB is ready to reduce to its bond-buying program once again, which currently sits at €60 billion per month. Another step down in the pace of asset purchases could come as soon as September, when the ECB's next set of staff economic projections (SEPs) are set to be released.

While ECB President Draghi's commentary may be seen as the turning point for what's been a lethargic Euro lacking bullish fundamental drivers, the US Dollar may not end up in the red when all is said and done today.

Fed Chair Janet Yellen is set to speak at 13 EDT/17 GMT today, and she has been one among many Fed officials that have touted the FOMC's desire to raise rates for a third time this year as well as begin the balance sheet normalization process. In her speech today, if the Fed chair comes out and talks up the Fed's prescribed path of rates, it may force the market to consider its dovish pricing, which currently sees the next rate coming in March 2018 - a far cry from Fed policymakers have been telling us.

Given the commentary from ECB President Draghi, which should be meaningful enough to keep the Euro elevated, EUR/USD may not be the best place to look for a US Dollar recovery around Fed Chair Yellen's comments today. Instead, if Yellen's commentary provokes a move higher in US yields, the greenback may be better suited for gains versus currencies like the British Pound or the Japanese Yen. Concurrently, as the Japanese Yen goes, so too does Gold; Yellen's speech should have a noticeable impact across asset classes later on today.

See the above video for technical considerations in EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, EUR/GBP, Gold, USD/CAD, Crude Oil, and the DXY Index.

Read more: US Dollar Heads into Barrage of Economic Data This Week

--- Written by Christopher Vecchio, Senior Currency Strategist

To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com

Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX

To be added to Christopher’s e-mail distribution list, please fill out this form

View our long-term forecasts in the DailyFX Trading Guides.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES