News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
EUR/USD
Bullish
Oil - US Crude
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Wall Street
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Gold
Mixed
GBP/USD
Mixed
USD/JPY
Bearish
More View more
Real Time News
  • Forex Update: As of 14:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: 🇪🇺EUR: 0.31% 🇦🇺AUD: 0.29% 🇨🇦CAD: 0.10% 🇬🇧GBP: 0.06% 🇨🇭CHF: 0.06% 🇯🇵JPY: -0.11% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#currencies https://t.co/OODkBySEaS
  • Indices Update: As of 14:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: US 500: 0.66% Wall Street: 0.42% FTSE 100: -0.13% France 40: -0.28% Germany 30: -0.46% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#indices https://t.co/0PTPoUF2Jz
  • #Gold has slipped to its lowest level since Tuesday today. After meeting resistance around 1,795 this morning, the precious metal fell back to trade near the 1,770 level. $XAU $GLD https://t.co/tOiSk0n6t5
  • Biden’s proposed tax hike sees investors unload profitable assets. Bitcoin intensifies losses, falls below $50,000. Get your $btc market update from @Daniela here:https://t.co/pkHFvFotbz https://t.co/1R7T4HpfQX
  • With the US data beating expectations, we have all of the major developed world economies reporting April PMIs with a significant improvement in economic activity for the current month. Seems only black swans and regulations can stop the train now... https://t.co/HpOW5ul5YW
  • Commodities Update: As of 14:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Oil - US Crude: 0.92% Gold: -0.24% Silver: -0.29% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#commodities https://t.co/ck2iRms5Hp
  • Heads Up:💶 ECB President Lagarde Speech due at 14:30 GMT (15min) https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2021-04-23
  • $EURUSD is currently trading back above the 1.2060 level today, around its highest point since early March. This is the third time of the week that the pair has tested the 1.2060 level. $EUR $USD https://t.co/HUbjgKOhCR
  • 🇺🇸 New Home Sales MoM (MAR) Actual: 20.7% Expected: 12% Previous: -16.2% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2021-04-23
  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in Silver are long at 92.38%, while traders in US 500 are at opposite extremes with 66.76%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX: https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment https://t.co/3GlR9tqywl
Preview for June FOMC Meeting and Outlook for USD-pairs

Preview for June FOMC Meeting and Outlook for USD-pairs

Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Strategist

Talking Points:

- DXY Index has held steady past few days, the fairly typical low volatility precursor to a key FOMC policy meeting.

- Look for a 'dovish hike' today: Fed raises rates by 25-bps; but cuts forecasts and reduces expectations for future tightening.

- Ahead of the FOMC decision, the retail crowd is net-short AUD/USD, EUR/USD, GBP/USD, and net-long USD/JPY - a mix that points to more US Dollar weakness.

Upcoming Webinars for Week of June 11 to June 16, 2017

Thursday at 6:45 EDT/10:45 GMT: Live Event Coverage: Bank of England Rate Decision

Thursday at 7:30 EDT/11:30 GMT: Central Bank Weekly

See the full DailyFX Webinar Calendar for all upcoming strategy sessions.

The June FOMC meeting should be more market moving than its May iteration, as today's meeting is one of the four during that year that sees a new summary of economic projections (SEPs) and a Fed Chair Janet Yellen press conference. As it were, the Fed, like the ECB, BOE, and RBNZ, in an effort to become transparent, has become predictable: they will only make a major policy change (i.e., hike rates) with justification in hand and an opportunity for Chair Yellen to explain to markets why they made their decision.

Up to this point, we've been led to believe that, ideally, the Federal Reserve, in its eyes, will hike rates twice more this year while announcing a change in their balance sheet policy by the end of the year. Given the calendar of press conferences and SEP releases, this would mean that the Fed has been looking to raise rates in June and September, before making the balance sheet wind down announcement in December.

Yet current market pricing coupled with recent US economic data have suggested otherwise. Currently, Fed funds futures are pricing in only one rate hike this year - today - and have no other rate hikes priced in for the rest of 2017 (per Fed funds futures). Balance sheet normalization is still a way's off, at least according to markets.

Given that market pricing is more dovish than what the Fed has previously prescribed for its glide path of rates, an acknowledgement of the economy growing at a slower pace than anticipated (coupled with softening inflation readings) may cause the Fed to cut down their forecasts and reduce their glide path for interest rates. In other words, we're looking for a 'dovish hike' today: the Fed will raise rates by 25-bps; but its forecasts, policy statement, and Yellen press conference will reduce the scope for further policy tightening.

A dovish hike would leave the US Dollar in an unenviable situation. While USD-pairs (and the DXY Index) have been relatively stable the past few sessions - not atypical in the run-up to a FOMC meeting - the low volatility environment is unlikely to persist today. In context of Crude Oil holding steady this week, USD/CAD's sharp decline the past three days may be a warning sign of more greenback weakness to come.

See the above video for technical considerations ahead of the FOMC meeting and around today's US economic data in EUR/USD, AUD/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, NZD/USD, USD/CAD, Gold, US Treasury yields, and the DXY Index.

Read more: Is USD/CAD’s Slide Foreshadowing More USD Weakness to Come?

--- Written by Christopher Vecchio, Senior Currency Strategist

To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com

Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX

To be added to Christopher’s e-mail distribution list, please fill out this form

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES