News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.



Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events


Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

Free Trading Guides
Please try again
Oil - US Crude
Wall Street
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
More View more
Real Time News
  • UK money markets erase bets on BoE rate cut - BBG. #BoE $GBP
  • $EURUSD has strengthened today amidst weakness from the US Dollar, rising back above the 1.2200 level for the first time since early January. $EUR $USD
  • $USD is weak, so is $Gold continued bearish move from that resistance inflection earlier this week. making another move towards the key support zone 1763-1766 (img 2) $GC $GLD
  • $USDCAD crushed through that 1.2500 handle, but selling seems to be slowing below the psych level. could be an item of resistance for bearish trend plays in the pair
  • Fed's Bostic: - Economy is currently in a rough patch, recovery has been very uneven - GDP rebound has happened faster than employment rebound - Optimistic that vaccinations will drive faster job growth - Fed's mandate focuses on employment, not GDP #Fed $USD
  • Yields on the US 10y Treasury tightened slightly following strong durable goods orders and lower than expected jobless claims prints, falling from 1.46% to 1.44%. $USD $GOVT
  • GBP/CNH approaching an interesting area of longer-term resistance... #yuan #sterling #gbpcnh @DailyFX Prices via @IGcom
  • 🇺🇸 GDP Price Index QoQ 2nd Est (Q4) Actual: 1.8% Expected: 2% Previous: 3.3%
  • 🇺🇸 Initial Jobless Claims (20/FEB) Actual: 730K Expected: 838K Previous: 841K
  • 🇺🇸 Jobless Claims 4-week Average (FEB/20) Actual: 807.75K Previous: 828.25K
Euro Under Pressure after ECB Leak; GBP Steady Before Elections

Euro Under Pressure after ECB Leak; GBP Steady Before Elections

Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Strategist

Talking Points:

- Draft of portion of tomorrow's SEPs leaked to Bloomberg News; shows ECB could reduce inflation forecast through 2019 to 1.5%.

- Overall, intraday FX volatility should be considerably higher tomorrow with ECB meeting, UK elections, and James Comey's testimony.

- Retail crowd positioning shows that traders are net-long the US Dollar versus the Euro, British Pound, Japanese Yen, and Australian Dollar.

Upcoming Webinars for Week of June 4 to June 9, 2017

Thursday at 7:30 EDT/11:30 GMT: Central Bank Weekly

Thursday at 8:15 EDT/12:15 GMT: Live Event Coverage: ECB Press Conference

See the full DailyFX Webinar Calendar for all upcoming strategy sessions.

The Dollar Index (DXY) is gaining ground this morning, up by +0.42% at the time this was written, no thanks to any positive developments out of the US. Instead, the Euro, which constitutes 57.6% of DXY, has fallen quickly over the past hour and a half after a draft of the ECB's new staff economic projections (SEPs), set to be released tomorrow, were leaked to Bloomberg News.

The main takeaway from the ECB's leaked draft is that the ECB is considering reducing its inflation forecast for 2019, cutting it down to 1.5%. At face value, this is meaningless; but in context of what the ECB has previously signaled market participants, this one data point has particular importance.

Since March, market participants have ratched up expectations that the ECB will back further away from its extraordinary easing measures, including its committment to keep rates 'at current levels or lower' for the foreseeable future. Implicitly, if the ECB is poised to announce that inflation will undershoot its +2% medium-term target for the next several years, then the ECB is in no such hurry to raise rates or withdraw policy stimulus.

Such a development would be a near-term setback for the Euro, which has enjoyed a strong rally in recent months on the back of diminshed expectations for more easing, thanks to stronger economic data out of the Euro-Zone and populist political risks fading away after the Dutch and French elections.

With the table now set for the ECB meeting, traders should be primed for a day of higher intraday FX volatility tomorrow. Aside from the ECB meeting, the UK elections will be taking place through the majority of the day (6 GMT to 21 GMT | 2 EDT to 17 EDT), with results due during the early hours of the Asian trading session on Friday. Additionally, former FBI Director James Comey will be testifying, which could impact the US Dollar, Gold, US yields, and US equities all the same.

See the above video for technical considerations and levels to watch for in EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/AUD, EUR/GBP, and DXY Index.

Read more: Gold, Yen Gain Steam as US Dollar Falls Further Out of Favor

--- Written by Christopher Vecchio, Senior Currency Strategist

To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail

Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX

To be added to Christopher’s e-mail distribution list, please fill out this form

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.