We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

Free Trading Guides
EUR/USD
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Oil - US Crude
Mixed
Wall Street
Bullish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Gold
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
GBP/USD
Mixed
USD/JPY
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
More View more
Real Time News
  • The US Dollar may be at risk to losses against some of its #ASEAN counterparts. USD/SGD, USD/PHP, USD/MYR and USD/IDR have recently broken to the downside. Will losses continue? Find out from @ddubrovskyFX here: https://t.co/0RTlj6maTT https://t.co/59cdbPc4l7
  • The #Nikkei 225 trades at 4-month highs after a 50% surge from the March low, while the RSI registers its first overbought readings since November 2019. Get your market update from @DanielGMoss here: https://t.co/pOEt698Ooi https://t.co/EHD2EHmQLW
  • The British Pound technical outlook still seems to favor the downside. GBP/CAD may pressure key rising support from August as GBP/AUD could prolong its downtrend. GBP/CHF may fall. Get your $GBP market update from @ddubrovskyFX here: https://t.co/hBOpDKXmfW https://t.co/8gGfGuw87o
  • The $USD breakdown has taken the index into confluence support at the objective yearly open. Get your USD technical analysis from @MBForex here: https://t.co/A16XEv6n4d https://t.co/VFxFMFWJ5L
  • Texas virus cases increase 2.4%, above 7-day average of 2.3% - BBG
  • Forex Update: As of 20:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: 🇳🇿NZD: 0.68% 🇨🇦CAD: 0.58% 🇬🇧GBP: 0.56% 🇪🇺EUR: -0.40% 🇯🇵JPY: -0.41% 🇨🇭CHF: -0.71% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#currencies https://t.co/KqzhTKmnaK
  • The divergence between weekly gains in the #Fed balance sheet and with the #SP500 continues to grow https://t.co/A7HQRtukwj
  • Commodities Update: As of 20:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Oil - US Crude: -1.11% Silver: -1.74% Gold: -1.78% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#commodities https://t.co/oiiAzDSusO
  • The animal spirits were boisterous today as a blowout jobs report defied expectations of continued economic pain and malaise in the United States. Get your #Nasdaq technical analysis from @JStanleyFX here: https://t.co/1LI54uvI8x https://t.co/1JydMIGLWz
  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in Ripple are long at 97.09%, while traders in US 500 are at opposite extremes with 75.23%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX: https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment https://t.co/NqGfEOph43
US Yields are Rising Again - So Why Isn't the US Dollar?

US Yields are Rising Again - So Why Isn't the US Dollar?

2017-01-27 12:50:00
Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Strategist
Share:

Talking Points:

- DXY Index has decoupled from US yields in recent weeks - why?

- USD/CAD tends to lead USD-pairs...if it breaks below 1.3000, watch out for a flush in DXY Index.

- Get the DailyFX Trading Guides for our 2017 Trades of the Year and Q1'17 FX forecasts.

Webinar Schedule for Week of January 29 to February 3, 2017

Monday, 7:30 EST/12:30 GMT: FX Week Ahead: Strategy for Major Event Risk

Wednesday, 7:30 EST/12:30 GMT: Trading Q&A

Thursday, 7:30 EST/12:30 GMT: Central Bank Weekly

With the US Dollar surging forward in the final two months of the year, annualized US GDP in Q4’16 is expected to fall from the prior quarter’s estimate of +3.5% to +2.2%, in part due to trade balance adjustments. However, the consensus estimate provided by Bloomberg News may be discounted; the Atlanta Fed GDPNow forecast sees last quarter’s growth at +2.8%. Regardless, either outcome would point to a slowed pace of growth in the world’s largest economy, further highlighting the need for expansive fiscal reform.

Seeing as how the US Dollar’s strength since November was built on the prospect of future policy changes – not so much that data was coming in better than expected – there may be less of an impact here than usual. Indeed, this last point appears to be the reason why the US Dollar has decoupled from short-term US yields over the last few weeks: the lack of clarity about fiscal policy changes has taken the "Trump reflation trade" off the tracks.

See the above video for a discussion on why US yields have decoupled from the US Dollar, how that relationship could emerge again, as well as for technical considerations and specific levels of importance in DXY Index, EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, AUD/JPY, CAD/JPY, and CAD/JPY.

Read more: Mexican Peso Slumps After Trump Threatens No Show

--- Written by Christopher Vecchio, Senior Currency Strategist

Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX

To be added to Christopher's e-mail distribution list, please fill out this form

View our long-term forecasts with the DailyFX Trading Guides.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES

News & Analysis at your fingertips.