We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

Free Trading Guides
EUR/USD
Bullish
Oil - US Crude
Mixed
Wall Street
Bullish
Gold
Bearish
GBP/USD
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
USD/JPY
Bullish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
More View more
Real Time News
  • The European Commission proposed an ambitious recovery fund, containing the key parts of the Franco-German aid package with grants at EUR 500bln and loans at EUR 250bln. Get your $EURUSD update from @JMcQueenFX here: https://t.co/LmIaveRajb https://t.co/LWTBVLIDBf
  • The trio of central banks overseeing the commodity currencies have already cut their main rates to all-time lows. Get your market update from @CVecchioFX here: https://t.co/OSUXrN5P3j https://t.co/3nwDel6e28
  • The tension from March continues to subside, allowing for the $USD to slide to fresh two-month-lows. Get your currencies market update from @JStanleyFX here: https://t.co/bRSRjUqg6Z https://t.co/Q35YpIZEd2
  • López Obrador hopes #USMCA will help tighten trade relationships between the US and Mexico. Get your currencies market update from @HathornSabin here: https://t.co/bZrUKSCGaS https://t.co/MZ7UoiWWRj
  • The $AUD may suffer as relations between Australia and China deteriorate amid dwindling growth prospects. Euro traders will be closely watching progress in talks about a €500b recovery fund proposal. Get your market update from @ZabelinDimitri here: https://t.co/LkEFJViPWY https://t.co/sofO135ElG
  • The US Dollar could rise against #ASEAN currencies such as the Singapore Dollar as US-China tensions seem to escalate. The Indian Rupee is also looking ahead of local 1Q GDP data. Get your ASEAN currencies market update from @ddubrovskyFX here:https://t.co/LkEFJViPWY https://t.co/ZGFaQQ3Hr2
  • The #Euro is the big driver here for DXY as it is 57% of the index. It is rising now and trying to break above the March 27 high at 11147. Get your $EURUSD technical analysis from @PaulRobinsonFX here:https://t.co/6gt3F9LuGP https://t.co/73SaL5AeXD
  • U.S. Market Analyst at https://t.co/JsVsSmefgR, Shain Vernier covers - ✔️ Safe haven assets in volatile markets ✔️ Central banks and governments ✔️ How will commodities trade in a recession Only on Trading Global Markets Decoded #podcast. Tune in here: https://t.co/1UmEzEbwiy https://t.co/EIC9YqfTec
  • Anybody else think that casting directors in movies are some of the most underrated people when it comes to giving a film/series credit?
  • No https://t.co/EoBltaP17k
Mr. Market, Wrong Again: Trump Wins US Presidency

Mr. Market, Wrong Again: Trump Wins US Presidency

2016-11-09 12:30:00
Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Strategist
Share:

Talking Points:

- Initial reaction to Trump victory was in line with out expectations based on prior observations: good for Gold and the Japanese Yen; bad for the US Dollar and equities.

- However, traders searching for a silver lining may have found one, which is why US yields are running higher and the US Dollar is making up ground quickly as we turn towards the US session.

- Don't think the election results were a surprise? Check out our preview which included snapshots of aggregate polling averages and betting markets.

Join me today at 10:00 EDT/15:00 GMT to discuss the impact of the US election on FX markets.

The official tallies are in: Donald J. Trump will be the next President of the United States. Much like Brexit, which was also widely dismissed as a non-event, will be a fundamental gamechanger to the post-World War II liberal world order. American-led globalization may be dead; TPP, TTIP, and TISA are dead on arrival. It’s still early, but it’s important to understand and appreciate the magnitude of the event for FX markets specifically, not just the global economy: Fed funds futures have all but solidified expectations for a December 2016 rate hike.

While there was a sharp move across assets last night - very much in line with what we've observed previously, that good new for Trump also meant good news for Gold and the Japanese Yen, and bad news for the US Dollar and equities - let's not overreact. Considering what we're seeing today, it appears that the sheer uncertainty of some of the policies of a President Trump is mattering more than an actual assessment of the potential shifts in policies forthcoming.

Consider what has happened in US Treasuries - the long-end of the curve saw its yield turn positive shortly after it became clear Trump would be the next POTUS. While in the short-term, it may be bad for the US Dollar that the Fed doesn't hike rates, in the medium- or longer-term, the potential policies that Trump will bring along will absolutely necessitate higher interest rates: the combination of tax cuts and aggressive fiscal stimulus should prove to be flammable for inflation expectations.

Obviously, this is a complicated, nuanced issue that will take some time for markets to work through and figure out what the most likely course of action is going forward; uncertainty will stoke volatility and more difficult trading conditions. While this may be a tempting environment to trade in due to the volatility, it’s incredibly important to understand and appreciate the magnitude and potential fallout of this event. Individual position risk should be kept low – minimal leverage used – and risk management needs to be highly active, if you’re going to trade whatsoever.

See the above video for a technical review of the DXY Index, EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, USD/JPY, and Crude Oil.

Read more: US Elections Preview and Timeline: When Will States Report Results?

--- Written by Christopher Vecchio, Currency Strategist

To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com

Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX

To be added to Christopher's e-mail distribution list, please fill out this form

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES

News & Analysis at your fingertips.