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AUD/USD Consolidation Requires Patience; Watch Oil Next Few Days

AUD/USD Consolidation Requires Patience; Watch Oil Next Few Days

Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Strategist

Talking Points:

- AUD/USD is funneling into the apex of its triangle dating back to January 2015; continued patience is required.

- Crude Oil finds itself at trendline support from the 2016 swing lows; if prices hold, USD/CAD may turn down amid more weakness in DXY.

- See the DailyFX Economic Calendar for Tuesday, November 1..

Two central bank meetings are in the rearview mirror, leaving FX markets contemplating the next moves in AUD/USD and USD/JPY. However, it seems highly likely that these meetings will be overlooked by the end of the week, with the Federal Reserve, Bank of England, and October US Nonfarm Payrolls report due between Wednesday and Friday. Before the RBA and BOJ get lost in the noise, it's a good time to take stock of some meaningful developments that should impact both the AUD/USD and USD/JPY in the future.

The Reserve Bank of Australia's off-hands policy appears hawkish at the margins, keeping the potential for a bullish resolution to its recent consolidation as a strong possibility. The continued shift in language among RBA policymakers over the past few weeks has seen expectations for a 25-bps rate cut drop meaningfully, from near 32% at the end of September to just 8% today.

Elsewhere, the Bank of Japan continues to deal with the Japanese economy's lackluster performance despite years of excessively accommodative policy. By pushing back the expected arrival of the +2% inflation level to the start of the 2018 fiscal year (April 2018, and coincidentally, when Mr. Kuroda's term expires), the BOJ has made a subtle yet important shift in how it approaches the public. Previously, the BOJ utilized the power of "surprise" to make the biggest impact with its policy announcements; now, it appears to be joining to chorus of other major central banks (BOE, ECB, FOMC, RBNZ) that primarily use forward guidance (speeches, economic projections) to set policy expectations.

Chart 1: US Crude Oil Daily Chart (October 2015 to October 2016)

AUD/USD Consolidation Requires Patience; Watch Oil Next Few Days

Lastly, amid the fervor of events on the economic calendar over the next few days, don't look past what's happening in commodity markets, in particular, Crude Oil. 'Black gold' has fallen almost continuously over the past two weeks, and now faces a test of the trendline from its February and August 2016 swing lows. The implications for risk markets (like the US S&P 500) and currencies (like the Canadian Dollar) are clear.

See the video (above) for technical considerations in EUR/USD, AUD/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, Crude Oil, USD/CAD, and DXY Index..

Read more: GBP & USD Emerge after Weekend of Tumult on the Newswires

--- Written by Christopher Vecchio, Currency Strategist

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DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.